Hopefully the Niners win so that we get a decent line when they play the Steelers next week. I just can't see the Niners offense (nor their defense) being able to keep up on a short week against a well rested steelers team needing a win at home.
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Hopefully the Niners win so that we get a decent line when they play the Steelers next week. I just can't see the Niners offense (nor their defense) being able to keep up on a short week against a well rested steelers team needing a win at home.
Hopefully the Niners win so that we get a decent line when they play the Steelers next week. I just can't see the Niners offense (nor their defense) being able to keep up on a short week against a well rested steelers team needing a win at home.
BB, I will watch the 49ers game closely on tape next week. I cannot say enough to give out any lean. This Steelers team doesn’t look good without Pouncey, Bell & Bryant. The Patriots defense was just atrocious. If the Niners show us a good interior pass rush and solid CB play, this isn’t a good matchup for the Steelers. Their pass rush looked poor against a Patriots offensive line which had THREE rookies starting in their first NFL game. Their secondary is a joke, even Colin Kaepernick could pick them apart. But we will have a better clue on Tuesday.
@Imb: Great. Enjoy it
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Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Hopefully the Niners win so that we get a decent line when they play the Steelers next week. I just can't see the Niners offense (nor their defense) being able to keep up on a short week against a well rested steelers team needing a win at home.
BB, I will watch the 49ers game closely on tape next week. I cannot say enough to give out any lean. This Steelers team doesn’t look good without Pouncey, Bell & Bryant. The Patriots defense was just atrocious. If the Niners show us a good interior pass rush and solid CB play, this isn’t a good matchup for the Steelers. Their pass rush looked poor against a Patriots offensive line which had THREE rookies starting in their first NFL game. Their secondary is a joke, even Colin Kaepernick could pick them apart. But we will have a better clue on Tuesday.
love the write ups and i must say you are spot on with alot of games i just cant see rams winning that first game breaking in a new quarter back and rookie rb i see some miscommunications here also note this is a season opener if this was farther down the stretch i would side with you but not week one. but bol too you really enjoy your insight and love the cowboys play and bengals how you feel about the raiders and same feeling im having with the rams!!!!
Svvift, thanks for your comment. The Rams don’t have a rookie RB starting. Todd Gurley is not expected to join until week 4. I’ve heard that Tre Mason is healthy and will start and Cunningham will get some looks on screen passes.
Bol too you as well!
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Quote Originally Posted by svvift_grab:
love the write ups and i must say you are spot on with alot of games i just cant see rams winning that first game breaking in a new quarter back and rookie rb i see some miscommunications here also note this is a season opener if this was farther down the stretch i would side with you but not week one. but bol too you really enjoy your insight and love the cowboys play and bengals how you feel about the raiders and same feeling im having with the rams!!!!
Svvift, thanks for your comment. The Rams don’t have a rookie RB starting. Todd Gurley is not expected to join until week 4. I’ve heard that Tre Mason is healthy and will start and Cunningham will get some looks on screen passes.
Nice way to start the season for ya Suuma, you obviously bet it at the right time, and saved yourself the anguish of a push in the last 10 seconds.
I am on the Rams +3', Saints +3 and Dolphins -2' with you...we'll see if the hook comes into play. Have the Vikings +3 and will probably take the Ravens.
I am off the Giants play, we'll see if I am singing your praises or mumbling under my breath after the Sunday night game.
A short note that road teams that outrush their home opponent cover 71% of the time. We'll see if the Rams can win the battle at the line of scrimmage with the S'hawks, including not allowing Wilson to pick up too many yards with his legs....the other two games the roadies should outrush their opponents.
Here's to a good season.
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Nice way to start the season for ya Suuma, you obviously bet it at the right time, and saved yourself the anguish of a push in the last 10 seconds.
I am on the Rams +3', Saints +3 and Dolphins -2' with you...we'll see if the hook comes into play. Have the Vikings +3 and will probably take the Ravens.
I am off the Giants play, we'll see if I am singing your praises or mumbling under my breath after the Sunday night game.
A short note that road teams that outrush their home opponent cover 71% of the time. We'll see if the Rams can win the battle at the line of scrimmage with the S'hawks, including not allowing Wilson to pick up too many yards with his legs....the other two games the roadies should outrush their opponents.
Nice way to start the season for ya Suuma, you obviously bet it at the right time, and saved yourself the anguish of a push in the last 10 seconds.
I am on the Rams +3', Saints +3 and Dolphins -2' with you...we'll see if the hook comes into play. Have the Vikings +3 and will probably take the Ravens.
I am off the Giants play, we'll see if I am singing your praises or mumbling under my breath after the Sunday night game.
A short note that road teams that outrush their home opponent cover 71% of the time. We'll see if the Rams can win the battle at the line of scrimmage with the S'hawks, including not allowing Wilson to pick up too many yards with his legs....the other two games the roadies should outrush their opponents.
Here's to a good season.
On to a good season, Indigo!
I always try to get the better side of a key number against good passing offenses. These teams can always come up with a huge last-minute drive, whether for the win or a garbage TD. You don't run in the last two minutes.
Regarding your 71% scenario: Teams run when they win, not win when they run. This "system" also hits 68% no matter away or home. It's because teams with a lead run way more than the losing team, because you need to pass to get downfield quickly. In your scenario, teams had a 4.4-point lead coming into the fourth quarter. They run the clock down, that's why winning teams have more rushing yards most of the time. Those 71% teams had 10 rushing attempts more than their opponent - because they run down the clock. DeMarco Murray collected a big part of his total rushing yards when the Cowboys had a lead. And Murray collected a lot of 100-yard games because the Cowboys were winning. It wasn't that the Cowboys won because Murray had 100+ rushing yards. That's a myth.
Sorry buddy, but this isn't a system, but a result of teams running the clock down with a lead. This is not an angle to cap a game. Will gladly exchange more thoughts about it.
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Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
Nice way to start the season for ya Suuma, you obviously bet it at the right time, and saved yourself the anguish of a push in the last 10 seconds.
I am on the Rams +3', Saints +3 and Dolphins -2' with you...we'll see if the hook comes into play. Have the Vikings +3 and will probably take the Ravens.
I am off the Giants play, we'll see if I am singing your praises or mumbling under my breath after the Sunday night game.
A short note that road teams that outrush their home opponent cover 71% of the time. We'll see if the Rams can win the battle at the line of scrimmage with the S'hawks, including not allowing Wilson to pick up too many yards with his legs....the other two games the roadies should outrush their opponents.
Here's to a good season.
On to a good season, Indigo!
I always try to get the better side of a key number against good passing offenses. These teams can always come up with a huge last-minute drive, whether for the win or a garbage TD. You don't run in the last two minutes.
Regarding your 71% scenario: Teams run when they win, not win when they run. This "system" also hits 68% no matter away or home. It's because teams with a lead run way more than the losing team, because you need to pass to get downfield quickly. In your scenario, teams had a 4.4-point lead coming into the fourth quarter. They run the clock down, that's why winning teams have more rushing yards most of the time. Those 71% teams had 10 rushing attempts more than their opponent - because they run down the clock. DeMarco Murray collected a big part of his total rushing yards when the Cowboys had a lead. And Murray collected a lot of 100-yard games because the Cowboys were winning. It wasn't that the Cowboys won because Murray had 100+ rushing yards. That's a myth.
Sorry buddy, but this isn't a system, but a result of teams running the clock down with a lead. This is not an angle to cap a game. Will gladly exchange more thoughts about it.
What I wanted to add: It doesn't matter how many rushing yards you collect. It just matters that you are efficient in running the ball. You can have 20 total rushing yards at the end of a game, but if you converted a 3rd and 2 ten times into a first down by running the ball, it's most probably much better for your result than having 140 yards with a few 20+ runs.
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What I wanted to add: It doesn't matter how many rushing yards you collect. It just matters that you are efficient in running the ball. You can have 20 total rushing yards at the end of a game, but if you converted a 3rd and 2 ten times into a first down by running the ball, it's most probably much better for your result than having 140 yards with a few 20+ runs.
Like that Saints play suuma. I dont know how good the Saints will be this year but they arent worse than 8-8 this year. Got rid of the cancers on this team. The defense will take a little time to adjust with so many new faces but I think they improve as the year goes on.
Good luck
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Like that Saints play suuma. I dont know how good the Saints will be this year but they arent worse than 8-8 this year. Got rid of the cancers on this team. The defense will take a little time to adjust with so many new faces but I think they improve as the year goes on.
Like that Saints play suuma. I dont know how good the Saints will be this year but they arent worse than 8-8 this year. Got rid of the cancers on this team. The defense will take a little time to adjust with so many new faces but I think they improve as the year goes on.
Good luck
I have no doubt they will make the playoffs and their schedule is very fair
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Quote Originally Posted by saintsfan1977:
Like that Saints play suuma. I dont know how good the Saints will be this year but they arent worse than 8-8 this year. Got rid of the cancers on this team. The defense will take a little time to adjust with so many new faces but I think they improve as the year goes on.
Good luck
I have no doubt they will make the playoffs and their schedule is very fair
I don't incorporate rushing yards or predicted rushing yards into any picking scenario that I use. Teams that rush the ball more efficiently than their present opponent (yards/rush) cover 51% of the time. However, teams that have more rushes in the game than their opponent cover 75% of the time which backs up your idea that it is used as a 4th quarter, kill the clock strategy. Of course, teams that are behind are chucking the ball all over the place too.
However, teams that rush for less than 100 yards in a game cover less than 34% of the time.
Those teams that pass more efficiently (yards per pass) cover about 70% of their games. After week 4 though, that is negatively correlated as a future prediction tool, as is turnover margin average per game. In other words, regression to the mean happens.
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I don't incorporate rushing yards or predicted rushing yards into any picking scenario that I use. Teams that rush the ball more efficiently than their present opponent (yards/rush) cover 51% of the time. However, teams that have more rushes in the game than their opponent cover 75% of the time which backs up your idea that it is used as a 4th quarter, kill the clock strategy. Of course, teams that are behind are chucking the ball all over the place too.
However, teams that rush for less than 100 yards in a game cover less than 34% of the time.
Those teams that pass more efficiently (yards per pass) cover about 70% of their games. After week 4 though, that is negatively correlated as a future prediction tool, as is turnover margin average per game. In other words, regression to the mean happens.
Strong lean: Jaguars TT Under 17.5+ (line not released at my book)
Last season the Jaguars scored more than 17 points in 4 games:
W 24-6 vs. Cleveland: FG off a RZ fumble, TD off a RZ fumble, TD off an RZ interception. So that’s 17 points off turnovers where they had less than 25 yards to go. They had only one successful drive all game.
L 23-33 vs. Cincy: TD off an interception with 7 yards to go.
W 25-24 vs. Giants: 2 fumble recovery TDs
W 21-13 vs. Titans: Well that’s the only game they scored more than 17 by themselves but there was a 62-yd TD run by Todman. Won’t happen against the Panthers.
So the Jaguars scored more than 17 points by themselves only ONCE in 2014 and that was against the Titans. You always run the risk of turnovers by Cam Newton, but without Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess not being the go-to-guy so far and probably not even playing from what I've read, I believe their gameplan will look very conservative. They will try to slam the ball and play some Chess with field position.
Now this looks like a flawed reasoning at first glance, so let me explain:
Julius Thomas, the big time acquisition by the Jaguars, is sidelined and Marqise Lee had like three days of training camp, so Bortles is throwing to Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Mercedes Lewis against this defense. Except the addition of Jeremy Parnell - which I really liked - and TJ Yeldon this is simply the same offense from last season. Blake Bortles was by far the worst QB in the league and this receiving corps starting on Sunday is flat out bad.
I am really high on the Panthers’ defense which is stacked and played the #1 schedule in 2014 according to my rankings, which is why they aren't eye-catchers in stats sheets. Down the stretch in 2014 they held the Saints and Falcons to a combined 13 points, just for instance. This is a very strong front seven and maybe the best LB corps in the league. DT Kawann Short is a very good pass rusher and DE Charles Johnson as well. Kyle Love will play for Lotelelei and DE Kony Ealy rounds up this line. Ealy was flashing in the pre-season and Love worked solid against the run. Kuechly plays in his own league, Thomas Davis is a beast in pass-rush and coverage and rookie Shaq Thompson seems like a great fit and should bring some coverage-skills to the table. Their secondary is very good. Josh Norman is one of the best CBs in the league, Charles Tillman brings a lot of experience and Ben Benwikere was also a very good Corner last season. Their safety trio Tre Boston, Kurt Coleman and Roman Harper is above average. The Jaguars will miss Fowler who would have been agreat addition to their pass-rush as well as Andre Branch, Ziggy Hood and Sen'Derrick Marks. Ryan Davis is gone. They have a serious lack of pass rush which would have caused some solid field positions against the Panthers. I just don't know how the Jaguars are going to score against this Panthers defense. I can't see them scoring more than 10 and I would still be good if Cam Newton throws a pick-six.
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Strong lean: Jaguars TT Under 17.5+ (line not released at my book)
Last season the Jaguars scored more than 17 points in 4 games:
W 24-6 vs. Cleveland: FG off a RZ fumble, TD off a RZ fumble, TD off an RZ interception. So that’s 17 points off turnovers where they had less than 25 yards to go. They had only one successful drive all game.
L 23-33 vs. Cincy: TD off an interception with 7 yards to go.
W 25-24 vs. Giants: 2 fumble recovery TDs
W 21-13 vs. Titans: Well that’s the only game they scored more than 17 by themselves but there was a 62-yd TD run by Todman. Won’t happen against the Panthers.
So the Jaguars scored more than 17 points by themselves only ONCE in 2014 and that was against the Titans. You always run the risk of turnovers by Cam Newton, but without Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess not being the go-to-guy so far and probably not even playing from what I've read, I believe their gameplan will look very conservative. They will try to slam the ball and play some Chess with field position.
Now this looks like a flawed reasoning at first glance, so let me explain:
Julius Thomas, the big time acquisition by the Jaguars, is sidelined and Marqise Lee had like three days of training camp, so Bortles is throwing to Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Mercedes Lewis against this defense. Except the addition of Jeremy Parnell - which I really liked - and TJ Yeldon this is simply the same offense from last season. Blake Bortles was by far the worst QB in the league and this receiving corps starting on Sunday is flat out bad.
I am really high on the Panthers’ defense which is stacked and played the #1 schedule in 2014 according to my rankings, which is why they aren't eye-catchers in stats sheets. Down the stretch in 2014 they held the Saints and Falcons to a combined 13 points, just for instance. This is a very strong front seven and maybe the best LB corps in the league. DT Kawann Short is a very good pass rusher and DE Charles Johnson as well. Kyle Love will play for Lotelelei and DE Kony Ealy rounds up this line. Ealy was flashing in the pre-season and Love worked solid against the run. Kuechly plays in his own league, Thomas Davis is a beast in pass-rush and coverage and rookie Shaq Thompson seems like a great fit and should bring some coverage-skills to the table. Their secondary is very good. Josh Norman is one of the best CBs in the league, Charles Tillman brings a lot of experience and Ben Benwikere was also a very good Corner last season. Their safety trio Tre Boston, Kurt Coleman and Roman Harper is above average. The Jaguars will miss Fowler who would have been agreat addition to their pass-rush as well as Andre Branch, Ziggy Hood and Sen'Derrick Marks. Ryan Davis is gone. They have a serious lack of pass rush which would have caused some solid field positions against the Panthers. I just don't know how the Jaguars are going to score against this Panthers defense. I can't see them scoring more than 10 and I would still be good if Cam Newton throws a pick-six.
Been good my man. MLB has been good to me over the summer. Really wasn't going to check back in to covers unless I saw you lurking around.
Taking your approach to full game capping in the NFL starting in the trenches. Will be following closely and vice versa. You're run last season was incredible. I'll never fade, either tail or double up on plays we agree on.
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
Forbes
How are you doing?
Been good my man. MLB has been good to me over the summer. Really wasn't going to check back in to covers unless I saw you lurking around.
Taking your approach to full game capping in the NFL starting in the trenches. Will be following closely and vice versa. You're run last season was incredible. I'll never fade, either tail or double up on plays we agree on.
Strong lean: Jaguars TT Under 17.5+ (line not released at my book)
Last season the Jaguars scored more than 17 points in 4 games:
W 24-6 vs. Cleveland: FG off a RZ fumble, TD off a RZ fumble, TD off an RZ interception. So that’s 17 points off turnovers where they had less than 25 yards to go. They had only one successful drive all game.
L 23-33 vs. Cincy: TD off an interception with 7 yards to go.
W 25-24 vs. Giants: 2 fumble recovery TDs
W 21-13 vs. Titans: Well that’s the only game they scored more than 17 by themselves but there was a 62-yd TD run by Todman. Won’t happen against the Panthers.
So the Jaguars scored more than 17 points by themselves only ONCE in 2014 and that was against the Titans. You always run the risk of turnovers by Cam Newton, but without Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess not being the go-to-guy so far and probably not even playing from what I've read, I believe their gameplan will look very conservative. They will try to slam the ball and play some Chess with field position.
Now this looks like a flawed reasoning at first glance, so let me explain:
Julius Thomas, the big time acquisition by the Jaguars, is sidelined and Marqise Lee had like three days of training camp, so Bortles is throwing to Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Mercedes Lewis against this defense. Except the addition of Jeremy Parnell - which I really liked - and TJ Yeldon this is simply the same offense from last season. Blake Bortles was by far the worst QB in the league and this receiving corps starting on Sunday is flat out bad.
I am really high on the Panthers’ defense which is stacked and played the #1 schedule in 2014 according to my rankings, which is why they aren't eye-catchers in stats sheets. Down the stretch in 2014 they held the Saints and Falcons to a combined 13 points, just for instance. This is a very strong front seven and maybe the best LB corps in the league. DT Kawann Short is a very good pass rusher and DE Charles Johnson as well. Kyle Love will play for Lotelelei and DE Kony Ealy rounds up this line. Ealy was flashing in the pre-season and Love worked solid against the run. Kuechly plays in his own league, Thomas Davis is a beast in pass-rush and coverage and rookie Shaq Thompson seems like a great fit and should bring some coverage-skills to the table. Their secondary is very good. Josh Norman is one of the best CBs in the league, Charles Tillman brings a lot of experience and Ben Benwikere was also a very good Corner last season. Their safety trio Tre Boston, Kurt Coleman and Roman Harper is above average. The Jaguars will miss Fowler who would have been agreat addition to their pass-rush as well as Andre Branch, Ziggy Hood and Sen'Derrick Marks. Ryan Davis is gone. They have a serious lack of pass rush which would have caused some solid field positions against the Panthers. I just don't know how the Jaguars are going to score against this Panthers defense. I can't see them scoring more than 10 and I would still be good if Cam Newton throws a pick-six.
Nice writing Suuna. Which sport book do you use? Thanks in advane
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
Strong lean: Jaguars TT Under 17.5+ (line not released at my book)
Last season the Jaguars scored more than 17 points in 4 games:
W 24-6 vs. Cleveland: FG off a RZ fumble, TD off a RZ fumble, TD off an RZ interception. So that’s 17 points off turnovers where they had less than 25 yards to go. They had only one successful drive all game.
L 23-33 vs. Cincy: TD off an interception with 7 yards to go.
W 25-24 vs. Giants: 2 fumble recovery TDs
W 21-13 vs. Titans: Well that’s the only game they scored more than 17 by themselves but there was a 62-yd TD run by Todman. Won’t happen against the Panthers.
So the Jaguars scored more than 17 points by themselves only ONCE in 2014 and that was against the Titans. You always run the risk of turnovers by Cam Newton, but without Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess not being the go-to-guy so far and probably not even playing from what I've read, I believe their gameplan will look very conservative. They will try to slam the ball and play some Chess with field position.
Now this looks like a flawed reasoning at first glance, so let me explain:
Julius Thomas, the big time acquisition by the Jaguars, is sidelined and Marqise Lee had like three days of training camp, so Bortles is throwing to Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Mercedes Lewis against this defense. Except the addition of Jeremy Parnell - which I really liked - and TJ Yeldon this is simply the same offense from last season. Blake Bortles was by far the worst QB in the league and this receiving corps starting on Sunday is flat out bad.
I am really high on the Panthers’ defense which is stacked and played the #1 schedule in 2014 according to my rankings, which is why they aren't eye-catchers in stats sheets. Down the stretch in 2014 they held the Saints and Falcons to a combined 13 points, just for instance. This is a very strong front seven and maybe the best LB corps in the league. DT Kawann Short is a very good pass rusher and DE Charles Johnson as well. Kyle Love will play for Lotelelei and DE Kony Ealy rounds up this line. Ealy was flashing in the pre-season and Love worked solid against the run. Kuechly plays in his own league, Thomas Davis is a beast in pass-rush and coverage and rookie Shaq Thompson seems like a great fit and should bring some coverage-skills to the table. Their secondary is very good. Josh Norman is one of the best CBs in the league, Charles Tillman brings a lot of experience and Ben Benwikere was also a very good Corner last season. Their safety trio Tre Boston, Kurt Coleman and Roman Harper is above average. The Jaguars will miss Fowler who would have been agreat addition to their pass-rush as well as Andre Branch, Ziggy Hood and Sen'Derrick Marks. Ryan Davis is gone. They have a serious lack of pass rush which would have caused some solid field positions against the Panthers. I just don't know how the Jaguars are going to score against this Panthers defense. I can't see them scoring more than 10 and I would still be good if Cam Newton throws a pick-six.
Nice writing Suuna. Which sport book do you use? Thanks in advane
Ya really should have put that Dolphins write-up first in the OP. It's the best of the bunch!
What's funny is that in that write-up you say picking the skins is like playing Russian Roulette with 7 bullets. I laughed out loud at that because here in the states, we traditionally think of the RRoulette gun as a six-shooter (from old westerns which were hugely popular at one time). That is, the skins were certain death because you fill all the chambers and still have a bullet to spare.
Funny stuff. Then you changed it to an 8 shooter and it lost all it's effect. I still got a laugh at what I thought was a good joke.
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Ya really should have put that Dolphins write-up first in the OP. It's the best of the bunch!
What's funny is that in that write-up you say picking the skins is like playing Russian Roulette with 7 bullets. I laughed out loud at that because here in the states, we traditionally think of the RRoulette gun as a six-shooter (from old westerns which were hugely popular at one time). That is, the skins were certain death because you fill all the chambers and still have a bullet to spare.
Funny stuff. Then you changed it to an 8 shooter and it lost all it's effect. I still got a laugh at what I thought was a good joke.
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