TNF week 5 - Colts at Broncos....

Broncos coaching staff is horrible but small play for me on Broncos.  If only we didn't bet these games that are not worth betting.  

@vanzack

 No that's fair enough the Broncos did get gashed last week. And i did type the wrong team but the Colts still ran for 1.8 and Taylor is out.

The Colts didn't run well the 2 weeks before either though. And they always fall behind which takes the run game out. They don't have explosive plays so teams focused on the run and now that is even less if a threat.

No I didn't watch a single snap of the Colts vs Titans. But I watched the game vs KC as I had the Colts and they won with smoke and mirrors and a bailout call. My conclusion then was this is a team to fade all year.

But the Denver offense sucks and theysthey just lost to aIa winless teaam. Their coach is new and hasn't been impressing anyone. But if you can't run against anyone, and the QB can't move, and he fumbles when he gets sacked, you're gonna have a tough time.

On board tonight Van.

Keeping it small

BOL

Went small on Denver,  but like the U42 more than anything. I concur Indy will be able to run, but don't think they will have success inside the 30 because Ryan isn't mobile and won't be making "plays".....On the other side, Wilson has looked average at best and they are now without Jevonte Williams....will be dink and dunk city.....

Van

Yeah.  It is kinda funny - but also - it defeats the possibility of anything productive happening at Covers.

Disagree with a pick?  Come back.  Win or lose.  I am here win or lose, you should be too.  Lets talk about what happened - and how to get better for next time.

Hit and run bashing is such a silly game.

GL

Very good analysis.

I see tonight as pretty binary....

If the Colts can run, the game goes under and the Colts cover.  If they cant run, then it probably goes over and they could get smashed.

Like I said in an earlier post...  I think the chances are better than average that the Colts will be able to run tonight.  But this is a 55% play (at +3.25) for me - hence the small stakes.  I am looking at one outcome of many and saying that is the outcome I think has the best chance of happening - but by no means am I saying anything more than that.

GL - watch....  the Colts probably are able to run and lose by 30 anyways.  Anything can happen.

I like under also.  But turnovers.  I really stopped betting totals (except for a couple a year) several years back because of turnovers.  How many, and more importantly where they happen on the field is so important.

I worry about these two teams with turnovers.  Not so much if the Colts are able to run, but if Ryan gets behind or for whatever reason is dropping back a lot - he will get pressured and he will turn it over.  If those turnovers happen in Colts + territory - not bad for under.  If they happen on their own side, bad.

Just such a hard variable to handicap IMO - and this game especially.

GL

GL van the man

Thanks Joe.

@vanzack

 No worries. Don’t know about every week, a bit of exaggeration rook… 

JK 

all love bro, and I could be mistaken but we’re you correct 100% if the time? Just putting my info in here with Matt at QB being the bigger issue. Yea bro all love here. I just don’t come back win or lose because I move on don’t care because regardless, myself and everyone else does not know the true outcome of any game. #anyteamanyday 

Let’s meet up tho tonight after game. Good luck backing 28-3 

btw I apologize as I didn’t know it YOUR spot, I thought we were in a sports discussion forum and not dictating. 

try n enjoy the game

in Scalabrine we trust

Not my spot.  Just my corner of THE spot.

I am serious - win or lose - I like post-mordem.  Not to gloat - and not to take sh*t - but to get better.

All good.

BTW - what happened to Scal?

Another stat to note is Denver has the most penalties in the NFL. And that is probably a symptom of them having coaching issues... Would be foolish to forget how Hackett ballsed up the end of that game earlier in the year.

I actually think this game is gonna be close as hell and similar to a horse race (Broncos vs Colts) someone is gonna get pipped at the post. And with a coach that has already effed up one end of a game I dunno would I rather take him vs Frank Reich who is pretty smart.

While recent results would not suggest this, I think it's entirely possible both teams get into the 20s or it ends up like 28-16 which is enough for the over.

Ugh. I have to just skip this game.

@MysteriousMatt

 Not a clown, just after the game I could care less, we all know who won and lost. Ironically I’m the wrong one, I’ll meet up win, lose or draw and tip my hat, said I told you, or push. I apologize if it came off that way. 2 decades plus and just my 2 cents. See you ALL after Denver comfortably wins. Try n enjoy the game

Van, a gentleman and a scholar.

44 days. You ready?

Not everybody shades the lines to their advantage but I know of a few..

BOL VAN

@vanzack

 Well said. I truly mean it is NOT deliberate (speaking only for myself) from this day on I’ll be back to bounce things off either way. Don’t be  asking for  after this Broncos win tonight.  lol JK 

Enjoy the game Van. U have some great write ups. And I think not 100% blasting u, I think we were on same side. What about my thread original posts about tipping my hat to all the correct side backers? 

I see it as low scoring and Colts, or high scoring and Den.  Based on Colts ability to run.

Now...  You never know - Frank Reich gets some weird hair up his ass and decides to come out run and shoot for some unknown reason - and I am puckering my azzhole like I ate a bunch of spicy wings.

GL tonight-  and thanks for the back and forth.

I like this.

Oh man, I have a boner just thinking about it.

@vanzack

 Actually came back 2/3 last wagers

My apologies then.

I saw your bump re rams.

I mean if we're being honest if you need the .25 or .5, you probably don't really like the play.  To that end, it'll be Colts moneyline of nada.  BOL.

It is a fade the public kind of night... Betting the over cuz i expect a low scoring bore fest... 

I take a little bit of issue with this....  Just the way I bet and approach things....

I look for edges, and I bet as many as I can find.  Some people say to only bet X games per week (usually a low number).  I take the games, and I will bet them all if there is an edge.  Sometimes I bet none.

And for me - a half point sometimes makes an edge.  For instance, if I could only get +3 tonight, I go from a 1.5 unit play down to a 1 unit play - and if the line is 2.5 it is a no bet for me.  Thats how small the margins can be - because I am looking at 100 bets where I am trying to win 10-20 more than I lose.

So I realize that isnt for everyone.  But these points and prices mean a great deal to me.  Just one look at it.

GL tonight.