TNF week 5 - Colts at Broncos....

Now, on the other note, u truly not at all a lil nervous backing Matt? He has looked absolutely atrocious, he has not been the same since 28-3. Now with my P. Manning football signed by him when he broke the all time single season touchdown leader in 2004 staring me in the face, every time I fade my colts in prime time it I lose. I just can’t do it, I stopped after Jags loss, should have after tying to H-Town. Matty looks worse then ever, that’s really my main angle

@vanzack

 Yes because colts who can't run and ate in the road work no rb, compared to raiders at home with an excellent rb. Gotcha

Hey Van, what's happening? it's been awhile. BOL tonight.

@unplucked_gem

 It’s sports anything can happen. If Broncos win by a FG I’ll take my cash back rather then handing it over, for a few extra dollars the insurance to me is worth it

@vanzack

 Completely agree 

There is literally not another NFL QB that I would rather NOT back.  This guy is the worst.  I get it.

Run baby.  Run.

You got it buddy!

Good to see you.  So far....  good things have been happening.  But it is a long season.

GL

What do you think on the Under 42 Van?  I think that'll be my play tonight.

Read the thread.  Lost posted about the total.

@xMORTICIANx

 To each his own and thats fair, but speaks to my point.  If you need the half point or more does the game really have value or is it a boredom / action bet.

I log and track my bets and promise the return on ML far outweighs the spread losses and prepaid win juice.  Accordingly, I proudly turn a profit at 48% so losing is part of the game.

This thread is likely far more interesting than the game will be. Two terrible QBs in prime time

Hope I’m wrong

Actually no, hope I’m right as I’m on the under

20-17 to someone

20-17 to someone wouldnt be a decent result for me.  Not the best - but I will take it.

I think you are probably pretty close.

@vanzack

 Don't take issue, I wasnt talking about your margins or betting style.  Better phrasing on my end "I too like the Colts, but I'm on the ML cause there's value there on my sheet".

I only read the first page. Your play was my lean. The issue is the Colts have had 1 solo running back who was confirmed to be out for today. Nyheim Hines is a great 3rd down back with smooth hands, but he aint JT. There is a reason why he has ran 8 plays so far in the 4 weeks, and has averaged 1.8 yards per carry. 
I dont post my play here, because I dont have one yet. I will wait to see if 8 plays is too small of a sample size and Hines takes away, or if it looks to be a constant I will certainly bet Denver or the under. 

BOL

No issue taken!  All good convo.  Just explaining.  Guess it didnt come out like I intended.

I just flat out do not put much emphasis on RB replacement value.  There might be some, but not enough to make a bet based on it.

Just my opinion...

GL

@vanzack

@vanzack

 You are absolutely right about RB replacement..  If there are holes whoever is RB will find them..  some running backs are better at blocking those blitzing LB'S might be the bigger issue.  Hines has always played well with his limited opportunities.   BOL!!

@vanzack

  Takes balls to bet on Indy...Ryan's about as mobile as a guy in a wheelchair. Think I'll sit this one out.

BOL,

RT2

Van the man! Thanks a bunch for sharing bud

My wager is Russ is Cooking for over 12.5 yards rushing, -120.

@umgmu

 BOL!!  Keep the hot streak going...  Ready for MLB playoffs??