si1ly, you aren't afraid of an upset in CHI due to short-rest? I mean I know the obvious answer here is "No, they're too good" but it's the NFL and anything can and will happen, right?
The Bears again have one of the largest advantages on paper this week. The Carolina offense is pathetic.. even if they give it their all, I'm just not sure they'll be able to move the ball on the Bears defense on the road. Regardless of what the Bears can do on offense.. I don't see a lot of points coming from Carolina. I can easily see this game ending up in the low 30's.
0
Quote Originally Posted by JMAG:
si1ly, you aren't afraid of an upset in CHI due to short-rest? I mean I know the obvious answer here is "No, they're too good" but it's the NFL and anything can and will happen, right?
The Bears again have one of the largest advantages on paper this week. The Carolina offense is pathetic.. even if they give it their all, I'm just not sure they'll be able to move the ball on the Bears defense on the road. Regardless of what the Bears can do on offense.. I don't see a lot of points coming from Carolina. I can easily see this game ending up in the low 30's.
The logic of my projections is to find 'value' between the Vegas line and the mathematical prediction.
Sportsbooks have to do all this nonsense about correcting the line to account for public perception and other variables that have absolutely nothing to do with the outcome of the game. My models boil that down to vapor and simply look at the projected result if both teams played to their statistical averages.
This helps narrow down the card into games where we as gamblers have a mathematical advantage over the house (aka. a 'loose line'). I don't systematically bet every game with value - although in principle I guess you could - but I tend to believe that the higher volume of wagers over time reduces your advantage over the house regardless of whether there is line value on your side.
For me, it helps me see through all the bullshit, handicap every game with broad strokes and identify a few games that have 'loose lines'. I then filter these results according to my personal betting principles and come out with a final card that is statistically well-informed and exclusively includes games where I believe I have a mathematical advantage over the sportsbook. So in this case, both Atlanta and the under are on my 'leans' list this week. But they're not necessarily final plays. I use the rest of the data and ranks on the sheet to help further the handicapping process to decide if either play is truly worth investing in. Make sense?
0
Quote Originally Posted by trey4thr33:
Si1ly
Am i doing this correct?
The spread for Atl vs Philly is Atl +1 and O/U 46
Your sheet says projection Atl -4.5 and O/U 41.5
So does this mean you take Atlanta and the under?
The logic of my projections is to find 'value' between the Vegas line and the mathematical prediction.
Sportsbooks have to do all this nonsense about correcting the line to account for public perception and other variables that have absolutely nothing to do with the outcome of the game. My models boil that down to vapor and simply look at the projected result if both teams played to their statistical averages.
This helps narrow down the card into games where we as gamblers have a mathematical advantage over the house (aka. a 'loose line'). I don't systematically bet every game with value - although in principle I guess you could - but I tend to believe that the higher volume of wagers over time reduces your advantage over the house regardless of whether there is line value on your side.
For me, it helps me see through all the bullshit, handicap every game with broad strokes and identify a few games that have 'loose lines'. I then filter these results according to my personal betting principles and come out with a final card that is statistically well-informed and exclusively includes games where I believe I have a mathematical advantage over the sportsbook. So in this case, both Atlanta and the under are on my 'leans' list this week. But they're not necessarily final plays. I use the rest of the data and ranks on the sheet to help further the handicapping process to decide if either play is truly worth investing in. Make sense?
I know, I know, I shouldn't be doing so many teasers.. but I just couldn't resist. In this game I'm getting 9 points of value on both sides.. not quite as lucrative as the Atlanta and Chicago teaser - but I still get to bring both of these games across multiple key numbers. And bonus if the Skins hang in by 10, I'll essentially have action on the moneyline on the home team in the SNF game at EV odds. The potential to have this in my pocket through the weekend is worth any risk on the first half of the teaser.
0
I know, I know, I shouldn't be doing so many teasers.. but I just couldn't resist. In this game I'm getting 9 points of value on both sides.. not quite as lucrative as the Atlanta and Chicago teaser - but I still get to bring both of these games across multiple key numbers. And bonus if the Skins hang in by 10, I'll essentially have action on the moneyline on the home team in the SNF game at EV odds. The potential to have this in my pocket through the weekend is worth any risk on the first half of the teaser.
I'm big on the bears this week, mostly because of how bad Carolina is. I think I posted on another thread a prediction of something like 24-3 Bears. The under is another great pick for this game
0
I'm big on the bears this week, mostly because of how bad Carolina is. I think I posted on another thread a prediction of something like 24-3 Bears. The under is another great pick for this game
6 Point Teaser - Washington Redskins +10.5 & Denver Broncos PK (+100)
Hey Silly excellent work on the worksheet as always. I'm following you on your teasers for this week. I agree with both the teasers that you've locked in so far. Best of luck to us!
0
[Quote: Originally Posted by si1ly]
Locked in:
6 Point Teaser - Washington Redskins +10.5 & Denver Broncos PK (+100)
Hey Silly excellent work on the worksheet as always. I'm following you on your teasers for this week. I agree with both the teasers that you've locked in so far. Best of luck to us!
I play a number of teasers and took this post from Akilles across the street. I have a book that pays +even on 6 pt teasers as well as 1.8 on 1 unit 3 game teasers. Most books have raised juice -110/-120 on 6 pt teaser but a strategy can be very profitable.
Teasers, unlike straight bets, are best played as late as possible.
This is due to the line being most accurate as kickoff approaches, [In theory]. Straight bets are best made before the lines have been adjusted by smart money. As opposed to a teaser wager where you want the line to be as accurate as possible, because it reduces the chance of losing any teaser bet.
Tread lightly in the first week, since the lines are the most inaccurate of the entire year. the stats are out there to prove this point. They also show after week 1, adjustments will be made and the inaccuracies eliminated. Using the same logic, the lines are tightest during the playoffs and teasers even more powerful. However limited opportunities due to smaller sample size.
Basic strategy (B.S.) teasers, also referred to as Wong teasers. As probably everyone knows they are simply Dogs 1.5 to 2.5 teased up and Favs 7.5 to 8.5 teased down 6 points. The theory is to capture the "whole" 3 and 7.
A list of historical data for B.S. teasers for the previous 5 years. [2010 - 2005].
RD1.5 to 2.5, 64-22-1 for 74.4% HD1.5 to 2.5, 41-26-0 for 61.2% subtotal dogs, 105-48-1 for 68.6%
RF7.5 to 8.5, 15-13-0 for 53.6% HF7.5 to 8.5, 53-14-0 for 79.1% Subtotal Favs, 68-27-0 for 71.6%
Just some information...
0
Silly,
I play a number of teasers and took this post from Akilles across the street. I have a book that pays +even on 6 pt teasers as well as 1.8 on 1 unit 3 game teasers. Most books have raised juice -110/-120 on 6 pt teaser but a strategy can be very profitable.
Teasers, unlike straight bets, are best played as late as possible.
This is due to the line being most accurate as kickoff approaches, [In theory]. Straight bets are best made before the lines have been adjusted by smart money. As opposed to a teaser wager where you want the line to be as accurate as possible, because it reduces the chance of losing any teaser bet.
Tread lightly in the first week, since the lines are the most inaccurate of the entire year. the stats are out there to prove this point. They also show after week 1, adjustments will be made and the inaccuracies eliminated. Using the same logic, the lines are tightest during the playoffs and teasers even more powerful. However limited opportunities due to smaller sample size.
Basic strategy (B.S.) teasers, also referred to as Wong teasers. As probably everyone knows they are simply Dogs 1.5 to 2.5 teased up and Favs 7.5 to 8.5 teased down 6 points. The theory is to capture the "whole" 3 and 7.
A list of historical data for B.S. teasers for the previous 5 years. [2010 - 2005].
RD1.5 to 2.5, 64-22-1 for 74.4% HD1.5 to 2.5, 41-26-0 for 61.2% subtotal dogs, 105-48-1 for 68.6%
RF7.5 to 8.5, 15-13-0 for 53.6% HF7.5 to 8.5, 53-14-0 for 79.1% Subtotal Favs, 68-27-0 for 71.6%
I also like 3.5 to 4.5 teased up to 10.5 in some instances. I think Washington presents a good opportunity for that this week. With their offense they can backdoor their way within 10 points against any opponent. Especially with as many defensive holes as the Steelers this year.
0
Good stuff double G
I also like 3.5 to 4.5 teased up to 10.5 in some instances. I think Washington presents a good opportunity for that this week. With their offense they can backdoor their way within 10 points against any opponent. Especially with as many defensive holes as the Steelers this year.
You can use the sheets to make an educated guess as to how I feel about the Vikings moneyline. Fair value is projected at -195. If you can get them significantly cheaper then this, they're worth a look. Since you probably can't, they're probably not.
0
Quote Originally Posted by davopnz:
do you like vikes ml on thursday?
You can use the sheets to make an educated guess as to how I feel about the Vikings moneyline. Fair value is projected at -195. If you can get them significantly cheaper then this, they're worth a look. Since you probably can't, they're probably not.
i'm trying to start a project where i start with $100 and try and hit $1.40ish plays then if i win the first play put the $140 on another $1.40ish options and repeat..until i make a grand, i thought the vikes could be a good start
0
i'm trying to start a project where i start with $100 and try and hit $1.40ish plays then if i win the first play put the $140 on another $1.40ish options and repeat..until i make a grand, i thought the vikes could be a good start
Just questions on teasers payout for 3 teams and 4 teams. I am getting these payouts on my local book for 3 team teasers+6pts: $100 pays $170, 3 team teasers+6.5pts: $100 pays $160, 4 team teasers+6pts: $100 pays $300 and 4 team teasers+6.5pts: $100 pays $250. Are these normal payouts or am I getting rip off with these payouts?
0
Just questions on teasers payout for 3 teams and 4 teams. I am getting these payouts on my local book for 3 team teasers+6pts: $100 pays $170, 3 team teasers+6.5pts: $100 pays $160, 4 team teasers+6pts: $100 pays $300 and 4 team teasers+6.5pts: $100 pays $250. Are these normal payouts or am I getting rip off with these payouts?
They sound about right Chauster, but neither of my locals offer 3 or 4 team plus money teasers so I can't tell you for sure. I think Gecco's book pays +180 for 3 team 6 pointers.. so at +170 you're right in range.
0
They sound about right Chauster, but neither of my locals offer 3 or 4 team plus money teasers so I can't tell you for sure. I think Gecco's book pays +180 for 3 team 6 pointers.. so at +170 you're right in range.
I also like 3.5 to 4.5 teased up to 10.5 in some instances. I think Washington presents a good opportunity for that this week. With their offense they can backdoor their way within 10 points against any opponent. Especially with as many defensive holes as the Steelers this year.
Yes, I've played them in two of my teasers as well. RZone offense compared to Pittsburgh's red zone defense will allow some Td's rather than Fg's...
0
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:
Good stuff double G
I also like 3.5 to 4.5 teased up to 10.5 in some instances. I think Washington presents a good opportunity for that this week. With their offense they can backdoor their way within 10 points against any opponent. Especially with as many defensive holes as the Steelers this year.
Yes, I've played them in two of my teasers as well. RZone offense compared to Pittsburgh's red zone defense will allow some Td's rather than Fg's...
As robinspe already alluded to, MLB is my bread and butter sport. Baseball - stat driven and odds based - offers the perfect combination of a large sample size and high volume of plays. I consistently hit 60% using a similar style of MLB sheets. I also have NBA sheets which I will be publishing about a month into the season when enough data accumulates. Below is my entire posted record on Covers since I started keeping track about two years ago.
'10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u
'10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u
'11-12 NFL: 42-35 (54.5%) +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%)-0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB: 9-3 (75.0%) +5.70u
'11-12 NCAAB-P: 5-3 (62.5%) +1.60u
'11-12 NBA: 77-80 (49.0%) -13.28u
'11-12 NBA-P: 23-20 (53.2%) +2.30u
'11-12 NHL-P: 2-1 (66.6%) +1.10u
'11-12 MLB:130-86 (60.2%) +38.27u
'11-12 MLB-P:1-1 (50.0%) +0.35u
'12-13 NFL: 21-8 (72.4%)+17.70u
Si1ly,
Thank you for answering my Question, I really like what your doing here!!. I'm looking forward to reading more of the information you bring to all of us. Once again Thank You!!
0
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:
As robinspe already alluded to, MLB is my bread and butter sport. Baseball - stat driven and odds based - offers the perfect combination of a large sample size and high volume of plays. I consistently hit 60% using a similar style of MLB sheets. I also have NBA sheets which I will be publishing about a month into the season when enough data accumulates. Below is my entire posted record on Covers since I started keeping track about two years ago.
'10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u
'10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u
'11-12 NFL: 42-35 (54.5%) +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%)-0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB: 9-3 (75.0%) +5.70u
'11-12 NCAAB-P: 5-3 (62.5%) +1.60u
'11-12 NBA: 77-80 (49.0%) -13.28u
'11-12 NBA-P: 23-20 (53.2%) +2.30u
'11-12 NHL-P: 2-1 (66.6%) +1.10u
'11-12 MLB:130-86 (60.2%) +38.27u
'11-12 MLB-P:1-1 (50.0%) +0.35u
'12-13 NFL: 21-8 (72.4%)+17.70u
Si1ly,
Thank you for answering my Question, I really like what your doing here!!. I'm looking forward to reading more of the information you bring to all of us. Once again Thank You!!
Si1ly - thanks for the great work. Have been tailing you for quite some time now. I'm in a survivor pool where the highest 4 spreads are disallowed each week. League started with 13,000 entries and is down to 300 with a good bit of change if you win. I can't choose GB, NE, Chicago, San Fran - any suggestions??
0
Si1ly - thanks for the great work. Have been tailing you for quite some time now. I'm in a survivor pool where the highest 4 spreads are disallowed each week. League started with 13,000 entries and is down to 300 with a good bit of change if you win. I can't choose GB, NE, Chicago, San Fran - any suggestions??
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Hot Forum Topics
