Saxo Bank manager Bjarne Riis said all the pressure is on Sastre and Evans to move.
“They’ve lost time and they have to do something. They cannot wait until the Alps,” Riis said. “One thing is sure, if no one takes the initiative and everyone is waiting on the others, we will do it. We cannot just let Astana ride to the top unchallenged.”
Contador
“Tomorrow, it’s a stage that’s pretty interesting. There are a lot of riders who have to try from afar. They are way back in the GC and they have to risk,” said Contador, third overall at 19 seconds back. “They have to try something. Everyone is asking who will attack, who won’t attack. We’ll have to see what happens.”
Contador’s destiny perhaps lies in the hands of others. With his team's domination the race, he won’t be obliged to attack. But if a rider like Andy Schleck (14th at 1:41) darts clear, Contador will have a free pass to punch the accelerator.
Armstrong on Contador
What will Armstrong do? He suggested Thursday that if Contador is on a great day, he might sit back and watch.
“I know Alberto wants to assert himself in the race. I don’t need a team meeting to tell me that,” Armstrong said. “I know he’s ready to go. If he does – and no one can go with him – I will just hang back and stay with the other leaders.”
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Saxo
Saxo Bank manager Bjarne Riis said all the pressure is on Sastre and Evans to move.
“They’ve lost time and they have to do something. They cannot wait until the Alps,” Riis said. “One thing is sure, if no one takes the initiative and everyone is waiting on the others, we will do it. We cannot just let Astana ride to the top unchallenged.”
Contador
“Tomorrow, it’s a stage that’s pretty interesting. There are a lot of riders who have to try from afar. They are way back in the GC and they have to risk,” said Contador, third overall at 19 seconds back. “They have to try something. Everyone is asking who will attack, who won’t attack. We’ll have to see what happens.”
Contador’s destiny perhaps lies in the hands of others. With his team's domination the race, he won’t be obliged to attack. But if a rider like Andy Schleck (14th at 1:41) darts clear, Contador will have a free pass to punch the accelerator.
Armstrong on Contador
What will Armstrong do? He suggested Thursday that if Contador is on a great day, he might sit back and watch.
“I know Alberto wants to assert himself in the race. I don’t need a team meeting to tell me that,” Armstrong said. “I know he’s ready to go. If he does – and no one can go with him – I will just hang back and stay with the other leaders.”
I was about to tell him to do it himself. It's not easy to predict stage winners - especially on stages we've seen. Tonight is a little easier though.
1. Sastre
2. Contador +1.04
3. Sanchez +1.04
4. A Schleck +1.04
5. Evans +1.04
6. Kreuziger +1.04
7. Armstrong and the rest of the group +1.38
Not sure about Menchov!
I would think that Sastre might do what he did in the Giro and they main contenders will give him that. Contador will follow Schleck and bring Sanchez with him or Sanchez will attack. Naturally Evans will attempt the move and be successful with the strong Liquigas unit sending Kreu up the road.
Contador takes yellow! - Then sacrifices it tomorrow to a break or keeps it with the break being successful!
I see something like that.
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Thanks guys
I was about to tell him to do it himself. It's not easy to predict stage winners - especially on stages we've seen. Tonight is a little easier though.
1. Sastre
2. Contador +1.04
3. Sanchez +1.04
4. A Schleck +1.04
5. Evans +1.04
6. Kreuziger +1.04
7. Armstrong and the rest of the group +1.38
Not sure about Menchov!
I would think that Sastre might do what he did in the Giro and they main contenders will give him that. Contador will follow Schleck and bring Sanchez with him or Sanchez will attack. Naturally Evans will attempt the move and be successful with the strong Liquigas unit sending Kreu up the road.
Contador takes yellow! - Then sacrifices it tomorrow to a break or keeps it with the break being successful!
Cervélo sport director Jean-Paul Van Poppel seemed excited heading into today’s stage. Van Poppel is confidence that Sastre will be ready to make a move if required.
“Everyone thinks the Tour is over,” said Van Poppel. “The real racing begins now and we will start to take some time back. The Tour is just starting.
“If Carlos has the legs, he will make a move. He knows what he has to do,” Van Poppel said.
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Cervélo sport director Jean-Paul Van Poppel seemed excited heading into today’s stage. Van Poppel is confidence that Sastre will be ready to make a move if required.
“Everyone thinks the Tour is over,” said Van Poppel. “The real racing begins now and we will start to take some time back. The Tour is just starting.
“If Carlos has the legs, he will make a move. He knows what he has to do,” Van Poppel said.
Defending champion Carlos Sastre (Cervélo TestTeam) is hoping to start drawing back time on Astana’s men, as he sits 2:44 minutes down. “We’ve done many climbs in the Pyrénées during the Tour de France, including one that I won,” said Sastre, referring to his stage victory in the 2003 Tour. “I also know Arcalis. I was second there once in a time trial. I think I’ve raced it four or five times. It’s hard, but not as steep as some other climbs.”
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Defending champion Carlos Sastre (Cervélo TestTeam) is hoping to start drawing back time on Astana’s men, as he sits 2:44 minutes down. “We’ve done many climbs in the Pyrénées during the Tour de France, including one that I won,” said Sastre, referring to his stage victory in the 2003 Tour. “I also know Arcalis. I was second there once in a time trial. I think I’ve raced it four or five times. It’s hard, but not as steep as some other climbs.”
Menchov is scared, after his crash on the TT in the Giro he hasn't feel too confortable on the bike. He's not in France to race, he will take it easy on the climb and he knows his out of contention. If you can pick up a matchup against him tomorrow go for it, he will scare as hell in the descent, he won't push at all.
I hope to see a win by Sastre, a good day by Andy and Frank Shleck and Armstrong in yellow.
Cavendish will rank amount the last group of the stage over 30 minutes back. Hopefully Hushovd can grab 2 points and pick up the green. Andy Shleck might wear the white jersey tonight.
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Menchov is scared, after his crash on the TT in the Giro he hasn't feel too confortable on the bike. He's not in France to race, he will take it easy on the climb and he knows his out of contention. If you can pick up a matchup against him tomorrow go for it, he will scare as hell in the descent, he won't push at all.
I hope to see a win by Sastre, a good day by Andy and Frank Shleck and Armstrong in yellow.
Cavendish will rank amount the last group of the stage over 30 minutes back. Hopefully Hushovd can grab 2 points and pick up the green. Andy Shleck might wear the white jersey tonight.
Today is a good day for Alberto Contador to show his dominance in Astana. But he can only be launched if someone attacks. If Sastre attacks, he won't chase. However, he might have telephoned his good buddy LLS. If LLS attacks, Contador will go with him so as I mentioned before the Tour, tonight's stage is a good opportunity for LLS to drag Contador up the climb.
If Armstrong or Contador got yellow tonight, they will lose it tomorrow because a break will go clear after that climb tomorrow 40km from the finish. Tomorrow is a day for Moncoutie and Moreau. Moncoutie may try something today and may not be caught, but tomorrow is more important to him.
The break will be caught somewhere on the last climb. I'm thinking Sastre is an excellent choice here today. There are three riders I'm looking to win the stage. Sastre, Sanchez and Contador. IMO no one else will win the stage. Today goes to a Spanish rider. Again, this is logic and logic hasn't proven right this tour so far.
At the moment, I've placed these bets. I'll be coming back later with the stage winner.
The orange boys will be productive today. Astaraloza, Martinez or Anton get in the break.
3 units Sastre over Evans @ $2.59
1 units Astraloza over Efimkin @ $2.59
1 units Arroyo over Karpets @ $2.61
6 units Sanchez over Gerdemann @ $2.57
2 units Sanchez over Gerdemann @ $2.49
2 units Uran over Anton @ $2.13
Stage Winner
1 unit Sastre @ $14
3 units Contador @ $3.75
1 unit Sanchez @ $34
.5 unit Rogers @ $66
2.5 units Sastre top 3 @ $3.75
I'm only throwing something on Rogers because in 2007 Vino crashed and came back the next day and won the stage from a break. Landis rode crap in 2006 and did the same. If Rogers legs are good, he tries the break today.
Mick Rogers is 13 minutes down - he's going to be in a breakaway at some point.
Good luck!
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Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:
Today is a good day for Alberto Contador to show his dominance in Astana. But he can only be launched if someone attacks. If Sastre attacks, he won't chase. However, he might have telephoned his good buddy LLS. If LLS attacks, Contador will go with him so as I mentioned before the Tour, tonight's stage is a good opportunity for LLS to drag Contador up the climb.
If Armstrong or Contador got yellow tonight, they will lose it tomorrow because a break will go clear after that climb tomorrow 40km from the finish. Tomorrow is a day for Moncoutie and Moreau. Moncoutie may try something today and may not be caught, but tomorrow is more important to him.
The break will be caught somewhere on the last climb. I'm thinking Sastre is an excellent choice here today. There are three riders I'm looking to win the stage. Sastre, Sanchez and Contador. IMO no one else will win the stage. Today goes to a Spanish rider. Again, this is logic and logic hasn't proven right this tour so far.
At the moment, I've placed these bets. I'll be coming back later with the stage winner.
The orange boys will be productive today. Astaraloza, Martinez or Anton get in the break.
3 units Sastre over Evans @ $2.59
1 units Astraloza over Efimkin @ $2.59
1 units Arroyo over Karpets @ $2.61
6 units Sanchez over Gerdemann @ $2.57
2 units Sanchez over Gerdemann @ $2.49
2 units Uran over Anton @ $2.13
Stage Winner
1 unit Sastre @ $14
3 units Contador @ $3.75
1 unit Sanchez @ $34
.5 unit Rogers @ $66
2.5 units Sastre top 3 @ $3.75
I'm only throwing something on Rogers because in 2007 Vino crashed and came back the next day and won the stage from a break. Landis rode crap in 2006 and did the same. If Rogers legs are good, he tries the break today.
Mick Rogers is 13 minutes down - he's going to be in a breakaway at some point.
hey nice day Bolar ... finally some money coming in big time with the solid head to head matchups
don't forget the 2 units on Uran !
Rogers gave up right ? Was wondering if it was really worth a chance. He crashed pretty hard. Surprising to see Menchov finish up there in the top 20. Great recovery for him.
N1ck ... keep the effort and analysis coming and you should see results as well
You were right on with Cavendish finishing 30 minutes behind. Only problem is Hushovd and Freire did worse. Will download the highlights tonight and watch. Should be interesting to see how this stage played out.
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hey nice day Bolar ... finally some money coming in big time with the solid head to head matchups
don't forget the 2 units on Uran !
Rogers gave up right ? Was wondering if it was really worth a chance. He crashed pretty hard. Surprising to see Menchov finish up there in the top 20. Great recovery for him.
N1ck ... keep the effort and analysis coming and you should see results as well
You were right on with Cavendish finishing 30 minutes behind. Only problem is Hushovd and Freire did worse. Will download the highlights tonight and watch. Should be interesting to see how this stage played out.
If I may add a useful trend to this thread: the FAVORITES in the H2H ( Pinny is the reference book ) are hitting at a very healty 65 %. I was expecting enough dogs with crazy odds to cash in to make it worth while to take all dogs but that strategy is getting destroyed so far. I think I can bring this up considering I have a sample of 170 picks with 111 favorites winning the matchup (the dog is not ALWAYS + money). Now, I just need to check if proper money management can turn a decent profit with 65% of the favorites winning. To be continued ...
BOL with the picks tomorrow mounring to all .
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If I may add a useful trend to this thread: the FAVORITES in the H2H ( Pinny is the reference book ) are hitting at a very healty 65 %. I was expecting enough dogs with crazy odds to cash in to make it worth while to take all dogs but that strategy is getting destroyed so far. I think I can bring this up considering I have a sample of 170 picks with 111 favorites winning the matchup (the dog is not ALWAYS + money). Now, I just need to check if proper money management can turn a decent profit with 65% of the favorites winning. To be continued ...
1 unit Moncoutie @ $17 1 unit Moncoutie @ $5 - place .5 units Devolder @ $41 .5 units Devolder @ $9 - place .5 units Moreau to win @ $31 .5 units Moreau to place @ $8.5
.2 units Monfort @ $67 .2 units Hincapie @ $51 .2 units Rogers @ $81 .2 units Flecha @ $61 .2 units Trofimov @ $67 .2 units Voigt @ $51 .2 units Marchante @ $81 .2 units Ignatiev @ $81 .2 units Arroyo @ $67 .2 units Moinard @ $81 .2 units Rolland @ $67 .1 units Pate @ $151 .1 units Perez @ $126 .1 units Oroz @ $126
6.5 units there on top of the Moncoutie bet and the other bet of 10 units. Let's see what we're made of. This worked in the Giro!
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1 unit Moncoutie @ $17 1 unit Moncoutie @ $5 - place .5 units Devolder @ $41 .5 units Devolder @ $9 - place .5 units Moreau to win @ $31 .5 units Moreau to place @ $8.5
.2 units Monfort @ $67 .2 units Hincapie @ $51 .2 units Rogers @ $81 .2 units Flecha @ $61 .2 units Trofimov @ $67 .2 units Voigt @ $51 .2 units Marchante @ $81 .2 units Ignatiev @ $81 .2 units Arroyo @ $67 .2 units Moinard @ $81 .2 units Rolland @ $67 .1 units Pate @ $151 .1 units Perez @ $126 .1 units Oroz @ $126
6.5 units there on top of the Moncoutie bet and the other bet of 10 units. Let's see what we're made of. This worked in the Giro!
If the break can make it, I see Casar at the front. The frenchman will try for a 3rd french win in row.
You got 4 of the 9 riders in the break in your play, interesting strategy.
Hushovd will be in green at the end of the day, he might actually keep it for a long time. He will be 5 points ahead of Cavendish. It should be safe for stages 9, 10, 11 and hoepfully Cavendish will quit the Tour instead of taking the green back.
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If the break can make it, I see Casar at the front. The frenchman will try for a 3rd french win in row.
You got 4 of the 9 riders in the break in your play, interesting strategy.
Hushovd will be in green at the end of the day, he might actually keep it for a long time. He will be 5 points ahead of Cavendish. It should be safe for stages 9, 10, 11 and hoepfully Cavendish will quit the Tour instead of taking the green back.
Casar started his sprint too early and LLS got him on the line. Efimkin had given too much in his attack and finally finished 4th. I ended up losing all my live in play bets, -10.5 units
I had Casar for the win, Casar over LLS, Efimkin over Astarloza and the field over LLS...what a devastating finish.
I'm waiting for my other matchups to be settled, hope for better luck.
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Casar started his sprint too early and LLS got him on the line. Efimkin had given too much in his attack and finally finished 4th. I ended up losing all my live in play bets, -10.5 units
I had Casar for the win, Casar over LLS, Efimkin over Astarloza and the field over LLS...what a devastating finish.
I'm waiting for my other matchups to be settled, hope for better luck.
My plays in live in play ended up losing all even if I still believe they were all the right play.
I ended up winning money on my pre race matchups. Thanks to Bolar for the pick ( Moncoutie over Txurruka )
I went 4-1 winning 13 units but I lost 10.5 in live action.
Record: 18-30 -38.8 units
The plays were :
Cadel Evans vs Rinaldo Nocentini @ 1.543 ( 5 units )
Carlos Sastre vs Denis Menchov @ 2.34 ( 2.5 units )
Andreas Klöden vs Franco Pellizotti @ 2.12 (1.25 units )
Alberto Contador vs Cadel Evans @ 2.24 ( 1.25 units )
David Moncoutie vs Amets Txurruka @ 1.763 ( 7.3 units )
You did a good job...
3 units on Moncoutie over Txurruka @ $1.95
3 units on Moncoutie over Txurruka @ $1.90
3 units on Moncoutie over Txurruka @ $1.85
1 unit on Rolland over Uran @ $2.20 - hoping Rolland gets in the break.
Cheers
We both did well.
That Moncoutie bet - we weren't supposed to swet over it. He was meant to get in the break. He tried, he will try tomorrow.
Yeah, I pin-pointed a few riders who I would thought would go in the break. Then I saw Sanchez was the strongest and heard that he targetted this stage so went on live betting. It worked!
We both did well.
My bet tomorrow - Moncoutie - he'll be pissed off today.
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Quote Originally Posted by n1ck:
My plays in live in play ended up losing all even if I still believe they were all the right play.
I ended up winning money on my pre race matchups. Thanks to Bolar for the pick ( Moncoutie over Txurruka )
I went 4-1 winning 13 units but I lost 10.5 in live action.
Record: 18-30 -38.8 units
The plays were :
Cadel Evans vs Rinaldo Nocentini @ 1.543 ( 5 units )
Carlos Sastre vs Denis Menchov @ 2.34 ( 2.5 units )
Andreas Klöden vs Franco Pellizotti @ 2.12 (1.25 units )
Alberto Contador vs Cadel Evans @ 2.24 ( 1.25 units )
David Moncoutie vs Amets Txurruka @ 1.763 ( 7.3 units )
You did a good job...
3 units on Moncoutie over Txurruka @ $1.95
3 units on Moncoutie over Txurruka @ $1.90
3 units on Moncoutie over Txurruka @ $1.85
1 unit on Rolland over Uran @ $2.20 - hoping Rolland gets in the break.
Cheers
We both did well.
That Moncoutie bet - we weren't supposed to swet over it. He was meant to get in the break. He tried, he will try tomorrow.
Yeah, I pin-pointed a few riders who I would thought would go in the break. Then I saw Sanchez was the strongest and heard that he targetted this stage so went on live betting. It worked!
We both did well.
My bet tomorrow - Moncoutie - he'll be pissed off today.
Pinpoint around 15 riders at big odds. Moncoutie will be one of them I target but his odds won't be big.
Look for a stage head to head.
Then go in play.
I had 4 riders in the break of 9 that established themselves today. Everyone else I backed except Devolder and a couple others tried for the break today. I'll be trying the same riders tomorrow. They are obviously hungry.
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The strategy worked. Tomorrow will be the same.
Pinpoint around 15 riders at big odds. Moncoutie will be one of them I target but his odds won't be big.
Look for a stage head to head.
Then go in play.
I had 4 riders in the break of 9 that established themselves today. Everyone else I backed except Devolder and a couple others tried for the break today. I'll be trying the same riders tomorrow. They are obviously hungry.
1 unit Moncoutie @ $17 1 unit Moncoutie @ $5 - place .5 units Devolder @ $41 .5 units Devolder @ $9 - place .5 units Moreau to win @ $31 .5 units Moreau to place @ $8.5
.2 units Monfort @ $67 .2 units Hincapie @ $51 .2 units Rogers @ $81 .2 units Flecha @ $61 .2 units Trofimov @ $67 .2 units Voigt @ $51 .2 units Marchante @ $81 .2 units Ignatiev @ $81 .2 units Arroyo @ $67 .2 units Moinard @ $81 .2 units Rolland @ $67 .1 units Pate @ $151 .1 units Perez @ $126 .1 units Oroz @ $126
6.5 units there on top of the Moncoutie bet and the other bet of 10 units. Let's see what we're made of. This worked in the Giro!
The guys in bold are the guys that tried to get in the break today. I'll back them again tomorrow probably.
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Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:
1 unit Moncoutie @ $17 1 unit Moncoutie @ $5 - place .5 units Devolder @ $41 .5 units Devolder @ $9 - place .5 units Moreau to win @ $31 .5 units Moreau to place @ $8.5
.2 units Monfort @ $67 .2 units Hincapie @ $51 .2 units Rogers @ $81 .2 units Flecha @ $61 .2 units Trofimov @ $67 .2 units Voigt @ $51 .2 units Marchante @ $81 .2 units Ignatiev @ $81 .2 units Arroyo @ $67 .2 units Moinard @ $81 .2 units Rolland @ $67 .1 units Pate @ $151 .1 units Perez @ $126 .1 units Oroz @ $126
6.5 units there on top of the Moncoutie bet and the other bet of 10 units. Let's see what we're made of. This worked in the Giro!
The guys in bold are the guys that tried to get in the break today. I'll back them again tomorrow probably.
Casar was supposed to win it but Efimkin messed up with his attack. Casar was the strongest sprinter and Efimkin was fresh enough to finish 2nd, but they failed pretty bad.
I'll have a look over the matchups, fade Nocentini and Menchov at all cost. More later
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Casar was supposed to win it but Efimkin messed up with his attack. Casar was the strongest sprinter and Efimkin was fresh enough to finish 2nd, but they failed pretty bad.
I'll have a look over the matchups, fade Nocentini and Menchov at all cost. More later
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