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2009 Tour de France

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Captain
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Posts: 5831
Posted: #151
2 units Chavanel over Knees @ $1.81
3 units Moncoutie over Rolland @ $1.91
 
Good luck!
 
Captain
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Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 5831
Posted: #152
I'm hoping there is fuck all action on the Tourmalet tonight or the break won't survive.
 
Anyway I'll be applying the same strategy tonight.
 
.1 units Sapa @ $151 - lampre are trying
.1 units Lloyd @ $151 - silence lotto send someone?
.1 units Hesjedal @ $151 - garmin sends someone but who?
.1 units Pate @ $126 - garmin sends someone but who?
.1 units Verdugo @ $101 - the men in orange will be there
.1 units Oroz @ $101 - the men in orange will be there
.2 units Spilak @ $101 - lampre are trying
.1 units Moinard @ $81 - cofidis?
.1 units Marchante @ $81 - cervelo present?
.1 units Laurens Ten Dam @ $81 - rabobank send someone
.3 units Monfort @ $81 - columbia send someone up the break
.2 units Millar @ $81 - garmin sends someoen but who?
.1 units Popovych @ $81 - Astana send someone.
.1 units Perez @ $51 - the men in orange will be there
.3 units Devolder @ $51 - time for him to show something
.3 units Huppond @ $51 - said he tried yesterday, was unsuccessful, conserved energy, will try today.
.1 units Rolland @ $51 - bbox
.2 units Martinez @ $41 - the men in orange
.3 units Voigt @ $41 - riis sends his veteran up the road
.1 units Anton @ $41 - men in orange there
.1 units Trofimov @ $41 - bbox
 
3.2 units there - should keep me occupied during the stage. Again, live betting will come into it - that's for the breakaway hopefulls.
 
1 unit on Moncoutie @ $14
1 unit on A Schleck @ $26
 
H2H
 
3 units Moncoutie over Rolland @ 1.91
2 units Chavanel over Knees @ $1.81
 
Basically, Moncoutie said that he is going to go for KOM points on one stage on the way to a win...today could be the day.
Andy Schleck last night said that if there is a bunch at the line, he can outsprint everyone.
 
I have put that bet on Schleck in case Saxo-Bank decide to do tempo riding up Tourmalet.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 289
Posted: #153
I believe in Casar and Moncoutie for the day, they must be in the break to help me cash in some money.
 
There's a small group with about a 5 minutes lead. I don't think they can make it to the top of Tourmalet.  Only Pellizotti is a good climber in that group, forget about Duque who's going to die about 2 km on the climb.
 
After the rest area, the race might start, it should be pretty nice.
 
Le Mevel and Astarloza are the men who need to be way back in the pack for my bets to be winners.
 
Captain
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Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 5831
Posted: #154

In play

Fedrigo @ $3.20 - 2.5 units

Apparently there was a huge amount of money on Pellizotti today....if we knew this.... not to worry.

 
Captain
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Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 5831
Posted: #155

If the break doesnt' survive. 2.5 units on Rojas @ $5.50

Good luck!

 
Captain
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Posts: 5831
Posted: #156

.3 units Cavendish @ $90
.5 units Ciolek @ $22

Good luck!

I don't know if Cav is there, but Columbia are assisting pace making.

 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 289
Posted: #157
Freire and Rojas are apparently the only the sprinters in the peloton according to live betting on Bet365.  Columbia are pushing for Kirchen and Hincapie, who might try an attack at the end of the stage.
 
I stongly believe in a win by Freire, Cavendish can't be in the group even if they climbed pretty slowly.  He's at least 20 minutes behind.  Hushovd has been dropped, they are probably in the same group.
 
Veteran
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Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 3552
Posted: #158
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

In play

Fedrigo @ $3.20 - 2.5 units  




Nice pick!
 
Captain
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Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 5831
Posted: #159
[Quote: Originally Posted by Bolar]
I'm hoping there is fuck all action on the Tourmalet tonight or the break won't survive.
 
Anyway I'll be applying the same strategy tonight.
 
.1 units Sapa @ $151 - lampre are trying
.1 units Lloyd @ $151 - silence lotto send someone?
.1 units Hesjedal @ $151 - garmin sends someone but who?
.1 units Pate @ $126 - garmin sends someone but who?
.1 units Verdugo @ $101 - the men in orange will be there
.1 units Oroz @ $101 - the men in orange will be there
.2 units Spilak @ $101 - lampre are trying
.1 units Moinard @ $81 - cofidis?
.1 units Marchante @ $81 - cervelo present?
.1 units Laurens Ten Dam @ $81 - rabobank send someone
.3 units Monfort @ $81 - columbia send someone up the break
.2 units Millar @ $81 - garmin sends someoen but who?
.1 units Popovych @ $81 - Astana send someone.
.1 units Perez @ $51 - the men in orange will be there
.3 units Devolder @ $51 - time for him to show something
.3 units Huppond @ $51 - said he tried yesterday, was unsuccessful, conserved energy, will try today.
.1 units Rolland @ $51 - bbox
.2 units Martinez @ $41 - the men in orange
.3 units Voigt @ $41 - riis sends his veteran up the road
.1 units Anton @ $41 - men in orange there
.1 units Trofimov @ $41 - bbox
 
3.2 units there - should keep me occupied during the stage. Again, live betting will come into it - that's for the breakaway hopefulls.
 
1 unit on Moncoutie @ $14
1 unit on A Schleck @ $26
 

If the break doesnt' survive. 2.5 units on Rojas @ $5.50

.3 units Cavendish @ $90
.5 units Ciolek @ $22

 
H2H
 
3 units Moncoutie over Rolland @ 1.91
2 units Chavanel over Knees @ $1.81
2.5 units Fedrigo @ $3.20
 
Hahah what a crap stage. After a Hors Category Climb, sprinters shouldn't be able to make it back to the main field. Not to worry. Devolders' intentions are there. If the box didn't chase him down early on in the stage, it might have been a different story.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 289
Posted: #160

This is gettins ridiculous. Moncoutie was in the break and collected his points to pass Contador in the KOM standings.  He found to lose my two plays, a lost of 15 units.  Casar did the same, finishing with the pack behind Astarloza, -12 units.

I'm basically down 26.7 units today with only 2 winners out of 7 picks.

Record : 20-35, -65.5 units

I don't know what to say. I have a ridiculous 0-10 on Bet365 including live in play.

I will definitely take a couple of days off. I've been losing like never.

I'm waiting for Cavendish to quit the tour next week.

 

 

 

 
Rookie
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Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 830
Posted: #161
The tour de france blows
 
Prospect
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Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 497
Posted: #162
Quote Originally Posted by johnbs:

The tour de france blows

if it blows so much why dont you stay out of this and let the people who do enjoy it have their say.

these blokes are athletes period.

keep up the great work n1ck and bolar. this has been very interesting to follow so far and how you blokes can pick a winner out of the field on differnet stages it very respectable.

 
Captain
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Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 5831
Posted: #163
12 units Manx Missile @ $2.10
5 units Tyler Farrar to place @ $5.50
 
Good luck!
 
Captain
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Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 5831
Posted: #164
No race radios = no breaks allowed to get away.
 
Day after a rest day Cav wants green back. These stages Columbia need to do what they can. The other sprinters teams will try will because they will all think Cav is stuffed after the mountains. Cav will prevail, then no one will help Columbia tomorrow and the break wins tomorrow.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 289
Posted: #165

1st try without race radio. Sprinter teams will all stay together and we should see Cavendish, Hushovd and Farrar in the top 3.  If there's a break, they will make it since no one could know how far they'll be in front.

Stage 17 will be amazing, no communication on a moutain day, the day where Contador could win it all or lose the Tour to Armstrong.

Enjoy the mass sprint and try to figure out how Cavendish can fail even it's barely impossible.

 
Captain
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Posts: 5831
Posted: #166
Just incase.
 
1 unit Chavanel @ $26
.2 units Voeckler @ $61
.2 units Huppond @ $126
.2 units Pineau @ $51
.1 units Rolland @ $151
.2 units Millar @ $81
.2 units Vogondy @ $81
.2 units Casar @ $51
.1 units Monfort @ $201
.1 units Lefevre @ $81
.2 units Roy @ $81
 
I'll throw in their two non frenchman. Columbia may decide to send someoen up front incase no one helps them push the peloton along.
 
Captain
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Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 5831
Posted: #167
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

12 units Manx Missile @ $2.10
5 units Tyler Farrar to place @ $5.50
 
Good luck!

How easy is this shit!

 
Captain
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Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 5831
Posted: #168
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

Just incase.
 
1 unit Chavanel @ $26
.2 units Voeckler @ $61
.2 units Huppond @ $126
.2 units Pineau @ $51
.1 units Rolland @ $151
.2 units Millar @ $81
.2 units Vogondy @ $81
.2 units Casar @ $51
.1 units Monfort @ $201
.1 units Lefevre @ $81
.2 units Roy @ $81
 
I'll throw in their two non frenchman. Columbia may decide to send someoen up front incase no one helps them push the peloton along.

That's nothing compared to what is above.

Profit from the stage: +33 units

 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 289
Posted: #169
I should have bet what I said...I called Cavendish, Hushovd and Farrar in the perfect order.
 
Anyway, I had 2 bets
 
Tyler Farrar vs Tom Boonen @ 1.546
Angelo Furlan vs Yauheni Hutarovich @ 1.833
 
The matchups weren't even close...I love this.I ended up without both with a 11.6 units profit.
 
Record : 22-35, -53.8 units
 
Hushovd said he was going to beat Cavendish, tomorrow might be the day.
 
 
 
 
Veteran
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Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 3552
Posted: #170
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

How easy is this shit!



Outstanding work! Read it perfectly.

N1ck, calling the top 3 in the perfect order is great but it's tragic not to profit from it.

Keep up the good work. Been following from a distance now that I have to wait to see if Cavendish is gonna make it till the end but the sport is rather interesting to follow stage by stage as well.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 289
Posted: #171
Only one play for tomorrow's stage.  Bennati shown up today, the first time in 5 plains stages.  Why would he feel to show up 2 days in row ? I don't even think he'll be in the top 50.
 
On the other side, Ciolek is ranked top 5 for the green jersey and he's a serious sprinter.  I'm loving this H2H.
 
Ciolek over Bennati @ 1.775
Playing 9 units to win 7.
 
Cavendish might not win, I hope Hushovd does and keep increase his lead.
 
Captain
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Posts: 5831
Posted: #172

At this stage I'm still looking into tonight but:

10 units Moncoutie polka dot jersey @ $5.50

Been waiting for this to go out. It has.

 
Captain
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Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 5831
Posted: #173
In regards to Bennati - he rides better in a second or third week. I think tonight's finish has a false flat for the last 1km. Could be interesting.
 
I will more than likely choose about 5 - 8 riders for a break and then back Farrar or Ciolek or Bennati or Hushovd for a place.
 
Good luck!
 
Captain
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Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 5831
Posted: #174
We saw it the other day - It's easy to pick up 50 - 60 points in the mountains. Pellizotti did it on his breakaway attempt. Moncoutie hasn't been in a breakaway attempt yet and he has around 30 points.
 
 
Captain
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Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 5831
Posted: #175

Same deal as yesterday.

10 units Cav @ $2.20
3 units Farrar to place @ $4.50


Back some big underdogs in case no one helps Columbia chase a break.

.3 units Chavanel @ $41
.2 units Millar @ $81
.2 units Dessel @ $81
.2 units Casar @ $61
.2 units Bonnet @ $101
.2 units Vogondy @ $101
.2 units Ignatiev @ $81
.2 units Pineau @ $51
.2 units Beppu @ $151 - twittered that he wants to get in the break today.

 

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