CD Newsletter Week 3

Rigged

Tim Riggins

John Riggins 

Nice work sac...ugly card as others said...like a ton of unders

Broncos @ Buccaneers -7(-105) 39

"Strong line for the Bucs after being +7.5 at Detroit. I know that they looked good, and that the Broncos suck, but this is the kind of spot where you hold your nose and take the Broncos right?

CD would do it, should we?"

Someone out there pulled a CD and took the Broncos. Line is down to 6.5 pretty much everywhere. You can still get Denver +7-117 at Betonline. 

I had a feeling that waiting this one out was a bad idea.

So you believe the Ravens would be -7 if at home?

Is that what you believe?

I will explain something to you, please take notes ...

The current line of -1 is a result of Dallas looking horrible last week and the Ravens being 0-2, and in seemingly a must-win game. If both teams were 1-1 and Dallas had lost a close game last week then the Cowboys would be favored in this game.

I do not expect you to grasp any of this, because ... in the words of the philosopher Epictetus "it is impossible for a man to learn what he thinks he already knows"

Good luck on your games this week

Bazinga

As per Warren sharp;

Caleb Williams vs Cover 3

#27 in EPA, #28 in success rate, #31 in YPA

Colts play Cover 3 at the highest rate in the NFL at 67% of dropbacks.

caleb

As per PFF ...

Most caries among RB's without forcing a missed tackle:

1) Zek Elliot  17

2) Braelon Allen 8

Oh my

Like all your plays Sac except for the Bears . Pinny is getting Colts steam as I type this . FYI

I'm seeing 42% of the bets on the Bears, with 55% of the money.

@undermysac

Bears  +2.5  -109  / ML  +119

Colts  -1.5  -112 /  ML  -131

These are my lines as a long time member ...not sure if they differ just looking without logging in . Which I think is the case....BigD always says elite book do  

3-8-3 -4.42 units

Saints ML(+110) *1.00/1.10

Bears ML(even) *1.00

Titans 1H -0.5(even) *1.00

@undermysac

 Wheres the Bucs Play ?

Some random thoughts ...

Since 2000, the Pats are 34-11 against the Jets. A lot of that success can be chalked up to Tom Brady and the New England dynasty, but even after he left Foxborough, the Pats continued to have the Jets number. They had won 15 straight games against the Jets before the Jets beat them 17-3 in Week 18 of last season.

NYG is one of the worst teams in the league, but no team with Watson playing QB should be laying a TD.

Saints have looked great, and the Eagles have not. This is the perfect buy-low sell-high game.

Den bites, but TB in a definite flat spot here.

GB took advantage of the old 'first-game-with-new-QB' effect. Second game is never as pretty

Raiders in a flat spot, and hard not to take the Panthers lightly. Carolina's players have to be relieved that the nightmare of Bryce Young is over, and should be up a fight here.

Geno Smith is the best QB nobody talks about.

Cards are feisty. Lions will have their hands full

Not sure who KC has behind Pacheco, but Falcs run D is not good.

Bills only 5.5 over Jax? This line seems off to me.

Bovada moved in Colts favor.  Betonline didn't move. Draft Kings has Colts -1.5(-108). Wish I had +119 instead of +100 on my bet. But I'm not Canadian. And fuck steam I don't care anymore, just pissed if I get stuck with a worse line which it looks like I will here

@Hugh_Jorgan

Denver definitely sucks balls except their D . Im not sure that Baker would agree with this flat spot . I had a horrific week but the 6.5 has me thinking this is a blowout 

Has he been good against any kind of coverage? He looks like he sucks against anything. He does make good passes when they're quick outs.

Never made one. I just quoted my initial post and commented on it. All my plays will always be in bold 

Fuck I see that I did leave it in bold when I copied it. Sorry, no bucs play

@undermysac

My bad ....I misread . Baker finally comfortable and feels wanted . I suggest you join me on the 6 / 6.5 ...I cant see Nix putting up 10 points here but it is week 3 

I leaned Denver right off the bat, not taking less than 7 at this point. I was on the bucs last week, they got out stat'd by the Lions and still won. Gonna leave it alone but good luck.

@trainwreck66

 https://www.espn.com/nfl/matchup/_/gameId/401671721

Look at this boxscore and tell me how the Lions lost. I was lucky to cover let alone the Bucs winning. Also, Vita Vea got hurt in the 3rd quarter, think he's out for the bucs.

@undermysac

Week 3 is usually an over reaction to past performances so I need to adjust and let it settle. Think this will be a fucked up year for us bettors . Hugh makes some good points in the post above . Nothing submitted yet . I was high on the Broncs the first two weeks and went 1-1 . Nix is god awful and Baker is finally not looking over his shoulder...I was never a fan but he is different and I root for him now 

@trainwreck66

 I'm a Baker fan.

It's actually good to see qb's like Carr, Baker, Darnold and Geno Smith doing well. These dudes have put their time in. They are all past failures in a league that wants qb's to be awesome right out of college. 

I think the results are just proving that most(if not all qb's) are not ready for a starters roll as rookies. They used to breed rookies in the nfl by having em ride the pine for a couple years behind a vet. Maybe that's the way it should have stayed all along.