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Presidential Election

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Posted: #501
I thought child labor was illegal. Perhaps this is a sign of things to come with the outsourcing
 
Captain
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Posted: #502
The very conservative National Review says that Trump no longer has a credible path to the Presidency:

https://www.nationalreview.com/article/439294/donald-trumps-tanking-presidency-impossible-nearly

There is still a lot of time, but Trump's numbers with college-educated voters and blacks have cratered dramatically.

 
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Posted: #503
Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway says Trump is winning:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/24/trump-campaign-manager-says-theyre-winning/

I have not seen the betting line on whether Ms. Conway could pass a drug test.
 
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Posted: #504
Eric Trump says it is "foolish" to release those tax returns:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/24/trump-son-says-it-would-be-foolish-to-release-tax-returns/

Of course, Warren Buffett and IRS officials say there is no reason why Trump could not release those tax returns.  The fact that he refuses to do so raises immediate suspicions.  What does he feel the need to conceal?  He certainly is not PROUD of what he has been doing for years.
 
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Posted: #505
How much does an unprofessional campaign hurt a candidate?

https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/25/how-much-will-an-unprofessional-campaign-hurt-trump/

The damage probably will be most noticeable in the battleground states.
 
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Posted: #506
Trump's path to 270 ended in Reno today. HRC marginalized Trump and the Alt-Right, yet threw a lifeboat to Republicans and conservatism. She didn't have to go out of her way to spare the GOP. She could have lumped them in with Trump since he is basically their problem. But she spared them and almost looked empathetic to what they are going though as a political party. This race appears to be over boys.
 
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Posted: #507
Quote Originally Posted by Inyourlife16:

Trump's path to 270 ended in Reno today. HRC marginalized Trump and the Alt-Right, yet threw a lifeboat to Republicans and conservatism. She didn't have to go out of her way to spare the GOP. She could have lumped them in with Trump since he is basically their problem. But she spared them and almost looked empathetic to what they are going though as a political party. This race appears to be over boys.


The race is over ,but not for Trump ..Lying Hillary fell into the Trump Trap today .back in July Hillary vowed to not call Trump names just a month ago she  told CBS's 60 Minutes  ...she ruled out engaging in Donald Trump’s “insult fest” ...Hillary vowed not to engage in name calling..

“I don’t call him anything. And I’m not going to engage in that kind of insult-fest that he seems to thrive on.".........she told CBS..

But, with her campaign on the ropes over the release of more damaging e-mails she took a knife to Trump and his supporters,, but she bombed,,

She unloaded with all she had and declared her party’s war on White America..her decency theme went down the drain today as she repeatedly called Trump and his followers racist ,..

Hillary claimed Trump's his real message is 'Make America hate again.'"...Stand by Hillary you are in for a rough ride..
 
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Posted: #508
Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:



The race is over ,but not for Trump ..Lying Hillary fell into the Trump Trap today .back in July Hillary vowed to not call Trump names just a month ago she  told CBS's 60 Minutes  ...she ruled out engaging in Donald Trump’s “insult fest” ...Hillary vowed not to engage in name calling..

“I don’t call him anything. And I’m not going to engage in that kind of insult-fest that he seems to thrive on.".........she told CBS..

But, with her campaign on the ropes over the release of more damaging e-mails she took a knife to Trump and his supporters,, but she bombed,,

She unloaded with all she had and declared her party’s war on White America..her decency theme went down the drain today as she repeatedly called Trump and his followers racist ,..

Hillary claimed Trump's his real message is 'Make America hate again.'"...Stand by Hillary you are in for a rough ride..

Keeping the hope alive Slim.........right on. But the Alt-Right is a tough sell to a general electorate. Today people heard that Trump hangs with people who say that Sandy Hook was staged. I don't think that will play well in the suburbs.

Right now HRC could lose OH and FL and still win the election. Combine that with Trump not knowing what to do with the illegals that he promised to deport and the campaign is in trouble.

And they haven't even started nailing Trump on his tax returns. He quits before releasing his taxes.




 
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Posted: #509
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

With the candidates pretty clear as of last night....  I thought I would post about the election.  My biggest bet of my lifetime was on Obama in 2008, as posted here at covers - and I have been on the right side the last 4 elections.

I am going to make this simple.  I always go back to math.  Sure if you watch the CNNs or Fox News of the world-  you will hear really anything you want to hear.  But there is one simple truth that gets drowned out in all the noise:

The US voting demographic has changed drastically in the last 20 years.

If you are a Republican running for President in 2016, you start a 100 yard dash 200 yards from the finish line.  Democrats start with a 242-180 electorate lead before the race even starts because of states who are already decided.  You only need 270 to win.  These states are Florida, Ohio, Virginia, NC, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and NH.  You might argue Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are on that list too, although that is probably a stretch.

There are only a handful of states that decide elections - and since the Dem is only 28 electoral votes away from winning - it means that the Dem could win Florida alone out of all of the swing states and still win the election.

The math just isnt there for Trump.  He has to almost clean sweep the swing states - which is a bigger longshot than his current betting odds suggest.

In the coming months you will hear polls - and you will hear opinions.  There is only one thing that matters - can Trump win the states listed above?  Can he win almost all of them?

I missed the boat several times with Clinton at better odds.  And laying close to -300 now doesnt excite me either - but I still think she should be about -800 or so.

Don't get sucked in to betting on Trump.  There is a definite political movement there - but the math just isnt there.

GL


This is the original post in this thread.

These states are Florida, Ohio, Virginia, NC, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and NH.  You might argue Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are on that list too, although that is probably a stretch.

Every single one of those states are blue.

I just ignore posts that talk about trends, what he said, what she said, who did what.  TELL ME HOW TRUMP IS GOING TO WIN ALL OF THESE STATES.  Not some.  ALL OF THEM.  

I would like to hear that case in all honesty.  Because that is what decides elections.  



Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #510
What happens to the HRC wagers if she ends up not being the nominee? 
 
Captain
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Posted: #511
Quote Originally Posted by sundance:

What happens to the HRC wagers if she ends up not being the nominee? 

I have not even contemplated a political wager, but I would advise anybody to check the rules before placing a substantial wager.
 
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Posted: #512
Yes. No guarantee she survives Assange.
 
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Posted: #513
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


This is the original post in this thread.

These states are Florida, Ohio, Virginia, NC, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and NH.  You might argue Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are on that list too, although that is probably a stretch.

Every single one of those states are blue.

I just ignore posts that talk about trends, what he said, what she said, who did what.  TELL ME HOW TRUMP IS GOING TO WIN ALL OF THESE STATES.  Not some.  ALL OF THEM.  

I would like to hear that case in all honesty.  Because that is what decides elections.  





Van--

There is an awful lot of equity sitting in your wager and I, for one, think you will end up collecting. However, here are a few ( hopefully respectful ) observations on some of your recent posts:

1. I agree that Mr. Trump would rather run against Secretary Clinton than any other candidate; no disputing that;
2. I agree that Mr. Trump needs Florida and Ohio; I don't agree he needs all the rest of the states you list. If he gets FL and OH, he really only needs to cobble together some other combination of NC, PA, WI, CO, VA, etc. You can toss out NH and NM. They are probably irrelevant ( please note the word probably);
3. Uber ? Really ? Please don't do that.

From a purely betting/equity standpoint, if I had been smart enough to have wagered on HRC earlier, as you did, I'd be thinking about trying to middle my bet right now, for the simple reason that I don't think you'll end up getting more favorable odds on Mr. Trump than you will at this moment. And, as you well know, the best time to wager on a guy who looks like a sure loser, is when the whole world is convinced he is a sure loser. It is also worth noting that I live in a very blue state ( Massachusetts ) and, even though all my colleagues say they're voting for her, they also say they detest her.

Volatile.

A situation that might tighten after Labor Day.

Thank you for the intelligence you add to all of this discussion. You've made a lot of people considerable sums of money.

Best of luck.



 
 
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Posted: #514
Quote Originally Posted by 1129ken:



Van--

There is an awful lot of equity sitting in your wager and I, for one, think you will end up collecting. However, here are a few ( hopefully respectful ) observations on some of your recent posts:

1. I agree that Mr. Trump would rather run against Secretary Clinton than any other candidate; no disputing that;
2. I agree that Mr. Trump needs Florida and Ohio; I don't agree he needs all the rest of the states you list. If he gets FL and OH, he really only needs to cobble together some other combination of NC, PA, WI, CO, VA, etc. You can toss out NH and NM. They are probably irrelevant ( please note the word probably);
3. Uber ? Really ? Please don't do that.

From a purely betting/equity standpoint, if I had been smart enough to have wagered on HRC earlier, as you did, I'd be thinking about trying to middle my bet right now, for the simple reason that I don't think you'll end up getting more favorable odds on Mr. Trump than you will at this moment. And, as you well know, the best time to wager on a guy who looks like a sure loser, is when the whole world is convinced he is a sure loser. It is also worth noting that I live in a very blue state ( Massachusetts ) and, even though all my colleagues say they're voting for her, they also say they detest her.

Volatile.

A situation that might tighten after Labor Day.

Thank you for the intelligence you add to all of this discussion. You've made a lot of people considerable sums of money.

Best of luck.



 

Cant really argue with any of that, except the last sentence about intelligence.

And I am retired from Uber driving.  The gave me a gold watch and everything.  I came to my senses when I realized that if you are the only person who thinks you are sane - chances are....  you are not.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #515
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


Cant really argue with any of that, except the last sentence about intelligence.

And I am retired from Uber driving.  The gave me a gold watch and everything.  I came to my senses when I realized that if you are the only person who thinks you are sane - chances are....  you are not.



Good move ,,but I've thought about doing it myself..also not for money ,,,just for the fun of it....  I think the throw-up images changed my mind ...lol

............
 
Captain
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Posted: #516
On the bright side, since it looks like HRC is going to get elected, Zelo can make a serious run at D-Town's post record on here over the next four years. He's on a great pace already. 
 
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Posted: #517
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


Cant really argue with any of that, except the last sentence about intelligence.

And I am retired from Uber driving.  The gave me a gold watch and everything.  I came to my senses when I realized that if you are the only person who thinks you are sane - chances are....  you are not.


I thought we already had a whole thread about hedging or not hedging....   There is no chance of a middle in betting on the winner, conventional gambling  wisdom would say to let the bet ride and not flush money down the drain no matter how much of a Loser Trump appear to be. 
 
Captain
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Posted: #518
Quote Originally Posted by 1129ken:



Van--

There is an awful lot of equity sitting in your wager and I, for one, think you will end up collecting. However, here are a few ( hopefully respectful ) observations on some of your recent posts:

1. I agree that Mr. Trump would rather run against Secretary Clinton than any other candidate; no disputing that;
2. I agree that Mr. Trump needs Florida and Ohio; I don't agree he needs all the rest of the states you list. If he gets FL and OH, he really only needs to cobble together some other combination of NC, PA, WI, CO, VA, etc. You can toss out NH and NM. They are probably irrelevant ( please note the word probably);
3. Uber ? Really ? Please don't do that.

From a purely betting/equity standpoint, if I had been smart enough to have wagered on HRC earlier, as you did, I'd be thinking about trying to middle my bet right now, for the simple reason that I don't think you'll end up getting more favorable odds on Mr. Trump than you will at this moment. And, as you well know, the best time to wager on a guy who looks like a sure loser, is when the whole world is convinced he is a sure loser. It is also worth noting that I live in a very blue state ( Massachusetts ) and, even though all my colleagues say they're voting for her, they also say they detest her.

Volatile.

A situation that might tighten after Labor Day.

Thank you for the intelligence you add to all of this discussion. You've made a lot of people considerable sums of money.

Best of luck.



 

without pennsylvania, he has virtually no shot. go the the real clear politics electoral map and play around with it. RCP has both ohio and florida as toss ups despite the consistent polling for HRC (along with NC, Iowa and several others). they're very cautious in their forecasting. and she's still forecasted to win.

as for penn and va, HRC has a huge polling lead in both and leads in every colorado poll by double digits. she leads substantially in wisconsin as well, and remember that Wisky hasn't voted for the GOP since 1984. yeah, since Reagan. Pennsylvania hasn't voted republican since 1988. Six elections.

While it's possible he can peel off some of these states, it's increasingly unlikely that he can get enough of them to win.

no need to hedge a winning bet imo.
 
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Posted: #519
Quote Originally Posted by sundance:

What happens to the HRC wagers if she ends up not being the nominee? 

Are you concerned that your boss is going to stiff you on your 2-1? On Monday you need to clarify your position with him. Tell him that he is betting only on an HRC win.

You were kind enough to give him 2-1 so he may be kind enough to hear you out. Clearly state that any result other than an HRC win will end up as a win for you.

Worse case scenario is you lose your job. Realistic scenario is he says fine. Best case scenario is he says No and allows you to renegotiate the 2-1 into current market value. If he is willing to adjust the numbers then make sure you are getting 4-1 on a Trump win. Good Luck!
 
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Posted: #520
Trump's repellent inner circle:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/27/trumps-repellent-inner-circle/

"“Consider this list of Trump’s chosen: Former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski had a brutal and demeaning style that resulted in a staff revolt, and his manhandling of a female reporter overshadowed the Trump campaign for weeks. Former campaign chairman Paul Manafort was paid lucrative consulting fees by foreign interests and resigned after reports that Ukraine anti-corruption investigators were scrutinizing millions in alleged payments there.”

“Longtime adviser Roger Stone is a crackpot conspiracy theorist who asserts that Bill and Hillary Clinton are “plausibly responsible” for the deaths of roughly 40 people and that Hillary Clinton should be “executed for murder.” Confidant Roger Ailes recently stepped down from his job at Fox News under a cloud of sexual harassment claims. And Steve Bannon, Trump’s new campaign chief executive, is known for his bullying tactics and for running a website (Breitbart News) that flirts with white nationalism.”

“There are a few exceptions to this pattern — Kellyanne Conway and Mike Pence come to mind — but Trump has hired and elevated some of the very worst people in American politics, known for their cruelty, radicalism, "

*****

For those of you who don't know, Michael Gerson is a conservative who sometimes fills in for David Brooks on Friday's "Shields and Brooks" on PBS's NewsHour debates.

 
Captain
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Posted: #521
As Trump repels minority voters in the West, the GOP future in that area is dimming:

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/27/us/politics/donald-trump-minority-voters-hispanic-latino-west.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Asked how fellow Republicans could win election to statewide office in the West, Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona offered some blunt advice: “Distance yourself from Donald Trump.”

 
Legend
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Posted: #522
Quote Originally Posted by Ktrain:

On the bright side, since it looks like HRC is going to get elected, Zelo can make a serious run at D-Town's post record on here over the next four years. He's on a great pace already. 

And if you add in his prior screen names he's probably already 3/4's the way there
 
MVP
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Posted: #523
iyl16, Duly noted. Colts 17 point fav in 69 Super Bowl. Joe Willie guarantees victory. Jets win straight up. The point is HRC is not a lock in a legitimate election process.
 
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Posted: #524
Quote Originally Posted by sundance:

iyl16, Duly noted. Colts 17 point fav in 69 Super Bowl. Joe Willie guarantees victory. Jets win straight up. The point is HRC is not a lock in a legitimate election process.

it's not a football game but if it were, the game is already in progress. certain states are not in play, so there is an existing score of delegates. she started with a lead among delegates. go back and read Van's original post. 

no one has said that trump has no chance. he has a small chance. but if you want to use a football analogy, it's the fourth quarter and she has the lead. she has a superior ground game for the states that are in play, and according to polls has a lead in most of these swing states. 

if she continues to lead in the swing states in september, the clock will start to work in her favor.


 
 
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Posted: #525
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

As Trump repels minority voters in the West, the GOP future in that area is dimming:

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/27/us/politics/donald-trump-minority-voters-hispanic-latino-west.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Asked how fellow Republicans could win election to statewide office in the West, Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona offered some blunt advice: “Distance yourself from Donald Trump.”



Flake offered that advice because of his prior meeting with Trump.  I read an article about it.  Trump apparently decided to threaten Flake, telling him to give support as the nominee or be concerned about re-election because he'd begin to publicly criticize Flake.  Flake had to remind Trump that he's not up for re-election since Trump never does his homework and was just being a bully.
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