I can only assume that the overall handle for political bets is microscopic compared to a football game, so a few large bets can have a major influence on the line.
Ossoff -170 seems expensive to me based on the tight polls, but maybe some insider got a peek at the early mail-in ballots. I will definitely pass on this.
5dimes limits are so low that you can't read much into their lines. the polls aren't nearly as good for this kind of election as they are for larger elections. that's one reason i didn't play it. also, even with trump being the massive shitshow that he is, it's hard to imagine a democrat winning this district given its history.
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Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
I can only assume that the overall handle for political bets is microscopic compared to a football game, so a few large bets can have a major influence on the line.
Ossoff -170 seems expensive to me based on the tight polls, but maybe some insider got a peek at the early mail-in ballots. I will definitely pass on this.
5dimes limits are so low that you can't read much into their lines. the polls aren't nearly as good for this kind of election as they are for larger elections. that's one reason i didn't play it. also, even with trump being the massive shitshow that he is, it's hard to imagine a democrat winning this district given its history.
I took a small wager on Handel, not too much only a few hundred. All the metrics and advantages are with Ossoff but this has all the smells of Florida 00', Ohio 04' and Hillary 16'. Tens of thousands of eligible voters have already been stricken from the rolls thanks to Jim Chris Clobach Crow and Crosscheck. Anything short of a Democratic blowout would favor Republicans. As of right now I'm calling it Handle 52 - Ossoff 48.
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I took a small wager on Handel, not too much only a few hundred. All the metrics and advantages are with Ossoff but this has all the smells of Florida 00', Ohio 04' and Hillary 16'. Tens of thousands of eligible voters have already been stricken from the rolls thanks to Jim Chris Clobach Crow and Crosscheck. Anything short of a Democratic blowout would favor Republicans. As of right now I'm calling it Handle 52 - Ossoff 48.
Polls have closed everywhere outside of two precincts in DeKalb County.
Those two precincts had received permission from a judge to extend voting by 30 minutes after they experienced problems checking voters in this morning.
I suspect Russian interference...
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Polls have closed everywhere outside of two precincts in DeKalb County.
Those two precincts had received permission from a judge to extend voting by 30 minutes after they experienced problems checking voters in this morning.
So far Ossoff is losing 50.8 - 49.2 in early voting. This is a disaster for Ossoff as the one huge advantage the canpaign expected was from early voting. The projections were about a 5 point Ossoff lead in early votes and Handel +5 or higher on election day. With Handel more than holding her own this looks to be like 16' when Hillary lost the Mideast when she kept the margin within 1-2 pts but never took the lead. As it stands my projections of a 4 pt Handel win looks very prescient.
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So far Ossoff is losing 50.8 - 49.2 in early voting. This is a disaster for Ossoff as the one huge advantage the canpaign expected was from early voting. The projections were about a 5 point Ossoff lead in early votes and Handel +5 or higher on election day. With Handel more than holding her own this looks to be like 16' when Hillary lost the Mideast when she kept the margin within 1-2 pts but never took the lead. As it stands my projections of a 4 pt Handel win looks very prescient.
Handel has opened up almost 2 pt lead in early votes. As i said before anything less than a 5 pt Ossoff lead means a garanteed loser. I'm just kicking myself for not slamming Handel for a G.
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Handel has opened up almost 2 pt lead in early votes. As i said before anything less than a 5 pt Ossoff lead means a garanteed loser. I'm just kicking myself for not slamming Handel for a G.
i know its great to be a republican and looking like nov for a democrat but chin up you came close.... after all That district hasn't been blue since????
i know its great to be a republican and looking like nov for a democrat but chin up you came close.... after all That district hasn't been blue since????
2/3 of the vote in and Handel up 6%. It looks like it's over. Handel out performed her models. Still time but not looking good for Ossoff. The campaign slogan that I'm not Trump isn't working. They need to come up with a new game plan. Republicans looking very very strong in 2018. Four special elections since Trump became President and all went red. Dems are becoming obsolete.
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2/3 of the vote in and Handel up 6%. It looks like it's over. Handel out performed her models. Still time but not looking good for Ossoff. The campaign slogan that I'm not Trump isn't working. They need to come up with a new game plan. Republicans looking very very strong in 2018. Four special elections since Trump became President and all went red. Dems are becoming obsolete.
Close but no cigar is not good enough. The Democrats gambled everything on Georgia, they made this election a referendum on Trump and it looks like Trump will have a pretty sizeable win. No one coming into tonight expected either candidate to win by 5 + %, this victory is simply breathtaking and will certainly deal a deathblow towards the resistance.
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Close but no cigar is not good enough. The Democrats gambled everything on Georgia, they made this election a referendum on Trump and it looks like Trump will have a pretty sizeable win. No one coming into tonight expected either candidate to win by 5 + %, this victory is simply breathtaking and will certainly deal a deathblow towards the resistance.
Close but no cigar is not good enough. The Democrats gambled everything on Georgia, they made this election a referendum on Trump and it looks like Trump will have a pretty sizeable win. No one coming into tonight expected either candidate to win by 5 + %, this victory is simply breathtaking and will certainly deal a deathblow towards the resistance.
there is something breathtaking about this election, but it's not that the republicans won a district by a few points that they've won since the beginning of time by a landslide every time. i don't know how that makes republicans look strong as 165 said/. but i guess people can interpret this however they like.
what is absolutely breathtaking is this is one half-behind house election out of 435 seats and the two sides, including outside sources, spent $50 million plus. but of course we don't have money to feed kids and help vets and sick people, etc. if that doesn't tell you something is irreparably broken, nothing will.
but it's even worse than that. $50+ million on an election few people would give a garbage about if not for the trump shitshow and the winner has to run again next year. $50+ million for a little over a year.
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Quote Originally Posted by Doubleadownon12:
Close but no cigar is not good enough. The Democrats gambled everything on Georgia, they made this election a referendum on Trump and it looks like Trump will have a pretty sizeable win. No one coming into tonight expected either candidate to win by 5 + %, this victory is simply breathtaking and will certainly deal a deathblow towards the resistance.
there is something breathtaking about this election, but it's not that the republicans won a district by a few points that they've won since the beginning of time by a landslide every time. i don't know how that makes republicans look strong as 165 said/. but i guess people can interpret this however they like.
what is absolutely breathtaking is this is one half-behind house election out of 435 seats and the two sides, including outside sources, spent $50 million plus. but of course we don't have money to feed kids and help vets and sick people, etc. if that doesn't tell you something is irreparably broken, nothing will.
but it's even worse than that. $50+ million on an election few people would give a garbage about if not for the trump shitshow and the winner has to run again next year. $50+ million for a little over a year.
here's the total of what the pac's spent. insanity for a house special election. but i'm sure the winner, handel apparently, will vote for what's best for the people and not the special interests who finance her.
here's the total of what the pac's spent. insanity for a house special election. but i'm sure the winner, handel apparently, will vote for what's best for the people and not the special interests who finance her.
It is down to a mind-blowing Ossoff -145. I'll tell you why. People think this shooting of the GOP member will somehow 'dampen' Ossoff's chances (Brietbart.com is touting precisely this).
Don't be fooled. This line was -215 just a few days ago when he had a 7 point lead. Yes, 7.
Here are the reasons and I'll make them short because political prop threads simply aren't popular:
1. This is the most public election to voice the electorates distaste with the Trump Presidency (and he just hit a record low disapproval rating in record time today). The ballot box will speak volumes for the speechless, particularly in district that tapped Tom Price to go work for the Trump Presidency. This will be a middle finger to his administration in a long-held GOP district.
2. Follow the money.
We know money wins in politics (most of the time). Trump is a counterexample but traditional big money will never leave the political arena and its influence on the electorate. Here are the numbers. Excluding SuperPacs (which do matter) the candidates have raised:
Ossoff $23 million
Handel $4.5 million
On this point alone you can blindly take Ossoff at bargain basement price chalk.
3. Polling
Finally a recent poll has Handel pulling even with Ossoff (another thing dragging down this line) but even Breitbart, the most pro GOP site in history, has Ossoff up 3.5% points.
Nuff said. You want to make a little change on an exotic you know a little about, it's right here. The NBA season is over. Time to scratch and claw out some bankroll with bets like this. It's right here. Come with me at a great price.
You were saying???
bigreds daddy
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Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
32-32
The pick:
John Ossoff -145 over Karen Handel on 6/20/2017
Wow is all I have to say about this line.
It is down to a mind-blowing Ossoff -145. I'll tell you why. People think this shooting of the GOP member will somehow 'dampen' Ossoff's chances (Brietbart.com is touting precisely this).
Don't be fooled. This line was -215 just a few days ago when he had a 7 point lead. Yes, 7.
Here are the reasons and I'll make them short because political prop threads simply aren't popular:
1. This is the most public election to voice the electorates distaste with the Trump Presidency (and he just hit a record low disapproval rating in record time today). The ballot box will speak volumes for the speechless, particularly in district that tapped Tom Price to go work for the Trump Presidency. This will be a middle finger to his administration in a long-held GOP district.
2. Follow the money.
We know money wins in politics (most of the time). Trump is a counterexample but traditional big money will never leave the political arena and its influence on the electorate. Here are the numbers. Excluding SuperPacs (which do matter) the candidates have raised:
Ossoff $23 million
Handel $4.5 million
On this point alone you can blindly take Ossoff at bargain basement price chalk.
3. Polling
Finally a recent poll has Handel pulling even with Ossoff (another thing dragging down this line) but even Breitbart, the most pro GOP site in history, has Ossoff up 3.5% points.
Nuff said. You want to make a little change on an exotic you know a little about, it's right here. The NBA season is over. Time to scratch and claw out some bankroll with bets like this. It's right here. Come with me at a great price.
Ossoff will take this down Gents. This race is the fissure in the dam that turns into a crack and and then a flood and represents the starting point for the the Dems taking back seats in 2018 (with a young energetic progressive minded candidate and one that isn't a bad looking guy, which if we all admit it, affects the perception of the voter, just ask JFK supporters).
Ossoffs wins and if you get it at a better price I commend you!
You made quite a few interesting observations in this post
bigreds daddy
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Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
Ossoff will take this down Gents. This race is the fissure in the dam that turns into a crack and and then a flood and represents the starting point for the the Dems taking back seats in 2018 (with a young energetic progressive minded candidate and one that isn't a bad looking guy, which if we all admit it, affects the perception of the voter, just ask JFK supporters).
Ossoffs wins and if you get it at a better price I commend you!
You made quite a few interesting observations in this post
there is something breathtaking about this election, but it's not that the republicans won a district by a few points that they've won since the beginning of time by a landslide every time. i don't know how that makes republicans look strong as 165 said/. but i guess people can interpret this however they like.
what is absolutely breathtaking is this is one half-behind house election out of 435 seats and the two sides, including outside sources, spent $50 million plus. but of course we don't have money to feed kids and help vets and sick people, etc. if that doesn't tell you something is irreparably broken, nothing will.
but it's even worse than that. $50+ million on an election few people would give a garbage about if not for the trump shitshow and the winner has to run again next year. $50+ million for a little over a year.
TOTALLY AGREE CLUB..look at my post #15
What's sad is that I was attacked by OP...that I should be ashamed and that I was ignorant from my ivory capping tower when I was only pointing out what you just posted..And others were attacked similarly instead of debating the substance of blowing $50 million that could have been spent on something much more important..
Besides, I didn't lead any sheep to slaughter...
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Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
there is something breathtaking about this election, but it's not that the republicans won a district by a few points that they've won since the beginning of time by a landslide every time. i don't know how that makes republicans look strong as 165 said/. but i guess people can interpret this however they like.
what is absolutely breathtaking is this is one half-behind house election out of 435 seats and the two sides, including outside sources, spent $50 million plus. but of course we don't have money to feed kids and help vets and sick people, etc. if that doesn't tell you something is irreparably broken, nothing will.
but it's even worse than that. $50+ million on an election few people would give a garbage about if not for the trump shitshow and the winner has to run again next year. $50+ million for a little over a year.
TOTALLY AGREE CLUB..look at my post #15
What's sad is that I was attacked by OP...that I should be ashamed and that I was ignorant from my ivory capping tower when I was only pointing out what you just posted..And others were attacked similarly instead of debating the substance of blowing $50 million that could have been spent on something much more important..
how does the spin go oh yeah ,,, price won the district by a landslide and ossloff did incredibly well in comparasion.... mabe 150, million would do it the dnc is gone to need some more loot to squander.
they do not like trump its a friggin shocker no?
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how does the spin go oh yeah ,,, price won the district by a landslide and ossloff did incredibly well in comparasion.... mabe 150, million would do it the dnc is gone to need some more loot to squander.
Karen Handel winning was a major take down of the Democrat party ..a devastating loss..this win by the Republicans was a demoralizing defeat ...the key to the win was the Republican turn-out ..and President Trump's late tweet support.. The cheery on top of this win was Ralph Norman's (R) win tonight in South Carolina for the US House of Rep Dist 5 Special Election..
Looks like the Dems will have to wait awhile to give the middle finger to President Trump.. lmao
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Karen Handel winning was a major take down of the Democrat party ..a devastating loss..this win by the Republicans was a demoralizing defeat ...the key to the win was the Republican turn-out ..and President Trump's late tweet support.. The cheery on top of this win was Ralph Norman's (R) win tonight in South Carolina for the US House of Rep Dist 5 Special Election..
Looks like the Dems will have to wait awhile to give the middle finger to President Trump.. lmao
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TOTALLY AGREE CLUB..look at my post #15
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