70percentATS

"Rivals.com has Houston at 46 in the country, so I trust them more than a SAF who is calling for at worst 11 wins for a team that plays very soft defense.  46 in the country with a soft schedule equates to 8 or 9 wins on the year." -- THORPE

LOL 9-0 so far. Who exactly is going to keep this team from finishing the regular season undefeated ????

Oh thats right, they were going to lose 4 games.

2-6 so far.

That under 6 1/2 looking like gold

Sorry I didnt even see it. Let me figure out how and I will accept it. Thanks.

Only 25 minutes before kick so not a lot of time here.

Play #3 will be Arizona +14 against Ok State tonight.

Ok state should not be a 14 point favorite against any team like Arizona simply because Ok State has no D at all. The Wildcats will put up points and will be able to stay close enough to cover the 14.

I will call it Ok state by 4-6 points but Arizona +14 is the play and they will cover it easily.

Quote Originally Posted by The8ofCups:

Going Illinois large thanks to this post. 

Sorry for your "large" loss.

Thanks for paying my mortgage.

Play #3

Miss State vs Memphis 2nd half UNDER 24 1/2

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101119767

This is a crazy total for 2nd half. The game is a blow out and Miss State has great D. The 1st half points have pretty much all come on big play strikes. That wont happen in the 2nd half. Miss State is gaining 10 yards per play on the ground and we will see them run the hell out of the ball in the 2nd half.

Dont expect to keep seeing 40 yard TD passes. Its 31-7 at half. No way we see another 24 1/2 points in the second half.

Under 24 1/2

Good points you make Handicapper33, 29, and vegas cruncer 1. I didnt have a lot of time to do a long write up so I just put the main points.

Still like you guys say, Hawaii should not being laying 7 points against Colorado. I know the game is in Hawaii this year but Col kicked their ass last year. This is much the same Colorado team and Hawaii lost much of their team.

Game is in Hawaii, but I will still take the better teamand the TD even though I am on the road.

Yeah a lot of people will probably take Hawaii for those reasons.

Buffalos finished only 5-7 last year but as I said, in 4 of those losses they were competitive, could have been 9-3 but coulda woulda shoulda I guess.

Hawaii has not much coming back, so I will take the 7.

Good luck on all plays.

Play #2

Colorado + 7

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmain.aspx?ur=510677&spt=33

Play #2 will be the Buffalos + 7 against Hawaii. I fully expect the Buffalos to win this game straight up, but I will take the +7 rather than taking a shot at the ML.

Colorado had a great year last year and even in their 4 losses they were very competitive. Record should have been a lot better than it was and they played a very strong Big 12 schedule.

Colorado brings back virtually all the starters from that team, so The Buffalos will have even a better year this year.

Conversely, Hawaii loses just about everything except Monitz. Hawaii wasnt even that good last year but their weak ass schedule resulted in a nice record.

Colorado will handle this game easily and probably win it outright.

Play #2 is Colorado +7

Line is up to 20 1/2 at some places.

Nice to see the squares are out already pounding the more well known team at any price.

Edpicker,

Im not trying to shit on your idea here. There are plenty of jackass Losers who are going to do that. Just ignore them. Misery loves company.

I do notice on your blogspot that some/alot of you plays are baseball -140, -50, -160 favs. If you are playing favs like this, even when you win you wont get back what you lost.

Like say you have lost 5 straight, you have lost 48% of your bankroll. Game 6 you win but say you took a -150 favorite betting 52% of your bacnkroll you only win 35% so youre still down 13%.

You might not lose 6 straight playing -150 favs for a while, but for this to really work, you have to play -110 bets, and even then when you win play 6, you still lose a little.

But you start playing -110 plays, you will lose 6 in a row. It may take a while, but it only has to happen once to lose it all.

but good job so far, and good luck with this.

Malebbc,

I hear you. There are so many unknowns and things that happen during a game that noone could have forseen. I hear you on that. We dont play 10 games a week like a lot of people who just need action.

It will probably be 15-20 games, maybe less. Just depends on how many great numbers are available during the season.

But I am sure you will agree with me. Sometimes they post stupid numbers because much of the betting public wont really deeply cap a game, they will just pick a side.

You get a game like this. A lot of people are going to jump on Illinios -19 without thinking too much about it. Illinios was pretty good last year, and posted a couple big upset wins. And most people will say who the hell is Arkansas State.

A lot of people will bet this game without even realizing how good Ark States Offense is and that it is very much intact from last year, and that Illinios has some serious questions on Defense.

The Books can post an Illinios -19 1/2 line. A line that Illinios pretty much has no chance of covering, and the books will probably still write more Illinios tickets than Ark State tickets.

Gamblers, if they are patient can wait and take advantage of these spots, and yes there will still be losses, but in the long run, doing this you sure can hit 70% ATS. In fact, you will hit 70% ATS. Just cant play 15 games a week, and there may be weeks with 0 games.

But there are stupid lines posted in NCAAF all the time.

Thorpe you say that #46 ranking in the nation and playing a very soft schedule equates to 4 losses ? I guess we will just have to disagree on that one.

Their Defense might not be that great ( although is was good enough for them to beat a supposed national title contending Ok State at Ok State in 2009 ), but their D wont be facing too many stud offenses this year.

How great does their D have to be against North Texas, La Tech, Ga State, SMU, UAB, Marshall, etc ? 

Team plays noone. They wont lose 4 games.

Yeah and I will say that - Houston will win 10 games at absolute worst.

Ok possibly Tulsa.

Does any book have a season win total for Houston ?

If so, the number would have to be 10 1/2 or 10 with heavy juice on the over.

Houstons Schedule after UCLA

North Texas

La Tech

Ga State

UTEP

East Carolina

Marshall

Rice

UAB

Tulane

SMU

Tulsa

Case Keenum is one of the best QB's in the nation. He was injured much of last season.

You have Houston with 8 wins.

They are going to lose 4 games ?????

They get Keenum back. There is no way no way no way they are only gonna win 8 games.

They dont play anyone after week 1 against UCLA. And they are favored in that game.

If they can beat UCLA they should and probably will finish 12-0.

Where you see 4 losses is beyond me. Look at that soft schedule.