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Adding Kentucky +26. I'll believe Georgia comes out firing this week when I see it.
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Arid_Torpor | 5 |
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1-3 last week drops me below .500 for the year. What an awful year. Well, still going this week. This is what I'm on. May be worth a fade at least.
*ECU -5.5. They're just the better team here, right? *Iowa State -4. Do not believe in Kansas. *LSU/A&M over 73.5. When A&M is involved, the points fall like rain. *Arkansas +1. They had a week off while Mississippi State played Alabama. I like that. Also, they do seem to be improving a bit. *Virginia +20.5. Do they played unreasonably well against Miami every year? They seem to. *UTEP +16. I really don't trust Tulane to win big. They've learned to win, but they're still winning close. *Louisiana Tech +3. I think Tulsa has mailed it in on the season and Tech hasn't. *Coastal Carolina +34.5. My cousin is CCU's QB, and I'm putting my money behind him. South Carolina is in a bit of a sandwich spot, and CCU has a very good FCS offense, although their D is cause for concern.
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Arid_Torpor | 5 |
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ASU/OSU over 64.5 played.
Thanks for the weather tip on Wisconsin, kearney. Looks like it's saving me some cash
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Arid_Torpor | 7 |
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Went ahead and put cash down on CMU and USA
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Arid_Torpor | 7 |
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Well, the Washington game didn't go well, but it looked to me more a function of their QB getting injured than any sort of motivation issues.
Wisconsin's defense honestly doesn't scare me (if Indy put up 28 on Michigan State, they're putting up points on anyone), but wind does. Thanks.
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Arid_Torpor | 7 |
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Went ahead and grabbed Washington +3 (-113)
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Arid_Torpor | 7 |
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2-2-1 last week makes 42-42-2 this year. I'm a coin! If anyone has thoughts on my thoughts for this week, they'd be appreciated.
*Indiana/Wisconsin over 69. Indiana can drag anybody into a shootout (even Michigan State), and their defense seems the sort that Wisconsin can really get moving against. *Arizona State/Oregon State over 64. Arizona State will score 50 if you let them, and OSU has a defense that just might. But an offense that will put up a few of their own. *Washington +2.5. I think this is the better team. They looked awful in Tempe, but I'm willing to chalk that up to built-up exhaustion after Stanford and Oregon in consecutive weeks. They're back now, and I'll get back to backing them. *Central Michigan -2.5. All the directional Michigans are awful this year. Central is a good bit less awful than the other two. *South Alabama +7.5. Favorite pick of the week. I love teams with an extra week to prep against the option, and USA is really not half bad in their own right. I also have a bizarre temptation to take Kansas, but I can't think of any good football reasons to talk myself into it.
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Arid_Torpor | 7 |
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2-5-1 last week thanks to the half point loss by MTSU and a good line grab on Pitt. So I continue to suck this year, don't follow me. 40-40-1 overall.
This is what I'm playing this week. *ND -3. This line looks like I'm being tricked into something. In the Mizzou/Kentucky game, that's enough to scare me away, because maybe it's a letdown and maybe UK plays over their heads and I dunno. But I basically just need the Irish to win here, right? And they're still the better team, right? Okay, so problem? I'm going square on this one, we'll see how it goes. *WKU -6. They completely shut down Navy, so presumably should be able to shut down Army, which is like Navy except worse. *VT +6.5. I like their defense to keep it close, especially after last week for Miami. *Alabama/LSU under 55. I know LSU's offense is a lot better this year, but does this line seem absurdly high given the tendencies of this game to go low-scoring? *UNT -25. They have some fairly noticeable home/road splits, and the Mean Green are often a good bet for a blowout at home. They're at home today and playing an awful team.
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Arid_Torpor | 1 |
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Locked in:
Pitt +11 Cuse -4.5 Indy -8 UTSA +3.5 MTSU -3.5 Tulane +2.5 ECU -24.5. I'm all about some CUSA away teams this week. That can often be a recipe for disaster. Hope it doesn't reach up and bite me this week.
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Arid_Torpor | 2 |
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Getting heavily into NHL (just watching, not betting) has really cut into my capping time, and it's shown in my record. Watching all five seasons of Breaking Bad in the last two months probably didn't help either.
But with a 4-2 week last week, I'm still keeping barely afloat at 38-35 overall (thanks, -105 pricing!). Have a few more thoughts for this week, and I'd like to get some thoughts if you folks have them. *Tennessee +13. This one has been locked in since Sunday, but I still like it at +10. This will be the first time I've bet on my Vols all season, but I think Mizzou is likely as not to come out flat after a heartbreaking loss last week. Also, Tennessee is starting a true freshman QB this week, who is significantly more talent than the guy he's replacing. The Vols have had some success with this over the years (see: Manning, Clausen, Bray), and I expect to see them move the ball more consistently this week. The rest of these are not locked in, but they're all on my consideration list. I'd like to solicit thoughts from elsewhere. Hit me if you've got 'em. *Pittsburgh +10.5. I think playing option teams two weeks in a row will provide a significant benefit, and GT is a bit Jekyll and Hyde anyways. *Syracuse -5. Buy low, sell high. Can't see Wake stopping the run here. *MTSU -3.5. I think this is a mismatch. MTSU is a mid-tier CUSA team, and UAB is a bottom-tier one. *UTSA +3.5. I'm not sure at what point Tulsa mails it in after an awful season by their standards, but even if they haven't, the Roadrunners are playing just as well at this point. *Tulane +2. Better team is an underdog here. I'm honestly not sure why, but I'll take it. *ECU -26. Pure mismatch, should be murder. *Indiana -8.5. Minnesota has looked really good the last couple weeks, but Indiana has the kind of team that can get a lead and get you away from what you want to do. Minnesota isn't built to come back. *WVU +13. TCU didn't even beat Kansas by this margin. I know the Mountaineers are a bit schizo, but I don't trust the Frogs.
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Arid_Torpor | 2 |
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No way am I going to try to blame that loss on Mauk trying to win it in the second OT. Not a chance.
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Arid_Torpor | 13 |
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Dobbs is starting for Tennessee. He's a better passer and a better runner than Worley, who he's replacing, but he's much less experienced. If you're considering either Tennessee or Missouri and want to get a feel for what to expect, this six-and-a-half minute video shows every collegiate snap Dobbs has ever taken: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTw0ZeXR_fM
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Arid_Torpor | 13 |
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It's worth point out that the freshman backup QB for Tennessee is significantly more talented than the guy who's been playing all season. Jones was trying really hard to redshirt the freshmen, and it didn't work out because both non-freshmen are now injured. So the Vols are essentially trading experience for talent. I don't know how that will work out (my suspicion is an offense that can move the ball better but makes more mistakes), but it's not your standard "assume a big dropoff without the starting QB" thing.
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WahooS | 194 |
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As soon as that FG went off the upright, I told myself I was taking a hard look at whoever Missouri played next week. That's a heartbreaking way to lose, especially after being undefeated, in the top five, and having a 17-0 fourth quarter lead. I don't know how Pinkel does at avoiding letdowns, but that's the type of loss that seems really tough to come back from.
Of course, I knew who was playing Missouri next week. I think Tennessee can hold up just fine in the trenches (since Tennessee holds up just fine in the trenches against everybody except Alabama), but the size and athleticism of Missouri's WRs is a major matchup concern. Tennessee's secondary is a major weakness, with a walkon running back starting at nickel and a true freshman as the best corner. Add into that a nagging shoulder injury to the best safety, and it's a cause for concern. Don't ask me how they held Connor Shaw to 7/21. I was at that game and I still don't understand. Tennessee hasn't named a starting quarterback, but most Vols fans are hoping for true freshman Josh Dobbs, who looked surprisingly competent in a second half full of garbage time in Tuscaloosa after Justin Worley aggravated a thumb injury yesterday. I'm not gonna lie, I'm a bit surprised to see the Tigers favored by 13. I expected something closer to 7. I don't like betting on my own team, but I've got Tennessee in this one. Thoughts?
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Arid_Torpor | 13 |
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Again, just posting for tracking purposes. Don't follow me because I suck this year. 1-3 last week for a total of 34-33 on the year. Of course, my two (unplayed) posted leans last week both won in dominating fashion. That kind of year.
Six plays this week: *NC State +34. This is the first one I looked for when the lines came out. FSU off a huge win, playing an inferior opponent, with a major rival next week? Every ingredient for a game that's unreasonably close. *Troy +10. I just don't understand this line at all. Troy hasn't been good this year, but neither has WKU. And Troy has been able to pretty well keep up with everybody outside the SEC. *South Carolina +3. I was at that game last week, and I'm still not sure how Tennessee's secondary managed to do what they did. But I still, for whatever reason, think South Carolina is a good team (and Dylan Thompson is a capable backup) and Missouri is a touch overrated. Was nervous about fading Mizzou after blowing it so badly last week, but bgk and sizzle are on the cocks, so I feel better about following. *Baylor -35. Yeah, it's a road game. Yeah, Oklahoma is next. If Oklahoma were next week instead of 12 days away, it might give me pause. But this is a ridiculous mismatch. *SDSU/Fresno over 63.5. I missed some line value by getting to this game late, but Fresno loves them some shootouts, and San Diego State should be happy to oblige. *UCLA/Oregon over 73.5. Pretty much the same story as the last game. UCLA isn't playing Stanford this week. Also lean to TAMU/Vandy over, because I think TAMU can give up points to your grandmother, but Robinette starting does concern me a little, so I think I'll lay off.
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Arid_Torpor | 1 |
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Locked the four leans in. Arizona at -3.5, all others at those lines.
I honestly don't see much to love this week. Next lean is probably Georgia Tech, because bouncing back and beating a mid-tier ACC team who just beat a bad ACC team is classic Georgia Tech. But I'm not sure I feel strongly enough to bet it. One of the more intriguing games on the board, IMO, is Washington/ASU. I'm not sure what Washington did to the schedule-makers, but following up Stanford and Oregon with a road trip to the desert is not kind at all. That said, the Huskies are the better team, and it's not like they lost last week in any sort of unexpected fashion. Will they be hungover or focused? I'd lean ASU, but again, not enough to play.
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Arid_Torpor | 7 |
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Yeah, I have the same feeling about Indy, Bandos. The line opened lower than I would've expected, and the line has moved towards Michigan despite them shitting the bed last week. But they're coming off a tough game, it's their last game before a bye and their rivalry, and their defense hasn't really shown the ability to keep an offense like Indiana's in check. This seems like a shootout that Michigan ends up winning by 3 to 7 points.
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Arid_Torpor | 7 |
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finally hit a couple last week, and 6-2 for the week brought me back above water at 33-30 for the year.
Not seeing a lot I love this week. Here are my initial thoughts: *Kent State +7. These folks aren't as bad as their record looks. Their schedule has been tough, and this week it eases off a bit against an opponent that does nothing but play close games. *Arizona -4. I just don't see Utah turning around and putting in another performance like that last week. *Indiana +9.5. Michigan lets teams hang around, Indiana is expert in hanging around. *Florida -3. Although I'm less confident with Murphy playing through a shoulder injury, I still think Florida's defense (against a backup QB) will be enough to pull it out
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Arid_Torpor | 7 |
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With you on Utah, against on Georgia Tech. GL this week.
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RJSizzle | 19 |
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Buffalo -10.5
Utah +7.5 OSU/WSU over 62.5 Wyoming -14 UNLV -8 And that should do it for this week.
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Arid_Torpor | 4 |
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