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jimmymo | 14 |
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Thanks Manifesto.
I really enjoyed cross checking my games against your consensus picks last year . It stopped me from placing a couple of bad bets.
Keep it up, stick to your gameplan, and try not to get frustrated with all of the NOISE.
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manifesto | 130 |
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Some good points. The recieving core for UF is greatly diminished. This is the least impressive group of Gator recievers since the 2002 group led by OJ Smalls.
They have some guys who have a decent amount of game experience (Thompson, Cooper, Nelson) but none of these guys have ever been relied upon to make a play in a big situation.
Think back to the SEC championship game vs Bama. The offense had trouble moving the ball all game and Tim basically had to go out and create a win. Why? Percy was out. This year will basically be the same Percy less offense we saw in Atlanta. When you have a guy who is that explosive playing as a hybrid player in a spread offense it is almost impossible to stop. Not only because of the threat of what he could do but also the fact that the defense must account for him at all times and it opened up alot of big plays for other guys. This spread offense will not operate the way it has the past 3 seasons.
Plus the fact that UF running backs coach Kenny Carter is predicting that the running back by comitee group (Demps, Rainey, Moody, Gilislee) will set a Gator team record for rushing yards. Playing on the strenght of the D the Gators should be milking alot of clock with the running game this year.
Don't get me wrong. I love Tim Tebow. But with that said I believe he might be a tad over hyped. The verdict is still out, we will have to see how he preforms without Harvin who in my opinion is the greatest offensive Gator football player ever and should at least be in consideration as one of the all time offensive greats in CFB.
On the other hand, there are a few reasons that make me skeptical of your strategy.
-Florida scores and creates alot of great field position on Defense and special teams. look back at the really lopsided games from last year such as S Carolina and Kentucky. Big plays from the D and Special teams put up alot of early points which normally would not have been scored. If florida's avg starting field position is near mid field watch out they can light up the scoreboard.
-Also, Meyer has done a great job recruiting and he wants to get some of those young guys on the field. Watch for teams to score late against the 3rd team.
- On that same note, this is the year John Brantley has to get ready for next season. Once UF is comfortably ahead and Tim sits down Brantley will come in to get game reps. He is a pure drop back passer and Scott Loeffler is going to want to see him air it out some. This could cause UF to score more late points than expected.
-But the best reason not to bet the under or take the points with the opponets in Gator games this year is Urban's new contract. All gator Athletic programs, facilities, coaches salaries and evrything else that has anything to do with Gator sports is completely 100% privately funded from Gator Boosters. Bull Gators are a gambling bunch who like to take UF and the over. Urban will not want to dissapoint after they so generously rewarded him this off season. If you thought the late field goal against Miami was bad wait and see what a little over $4M a year can do to a scoreboard.
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dugie243 | 14 |
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this seems like alot of work to not post the picks before the games start.
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goallinebob | 47 |
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Quote Originally Posted by davmeek:
You, sir...need to back off the crack. 63-10? Get real. Gators may win but they are not the Second Coming. I've been accused of being a homer for Bama and in some spots I have been. But you act like every player on your team is an All-American. I hope you don't lose too much money this weekend.
I have a rule against betting on the gators, but, if I didn't i would clean house. undefeated #1 team a 10 point dog! vegas is practically begging you to take bama. leading sheep to the slaughter. |
delphioracle | 10 |
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Obviously I am a Gator Homer. With that said I do not see how anyone could justify putting money on Bama.
Just compare across the board:
QB's - Superman vs. JPW enough said
Running game - Harvin (who will play), Demps (the fastest man in football), Chris "big play" Rainey, and MOOODY vs a couple of decent guys who would loose by 15 yards in a 40 yard dash to Harvin, Demps, or Rainey.
Wide recievers - This is UF we are talking about do I need to list them (Harvin, Murphy, Cooper, Thompson, Nelson, oh yea did I mention Harvin) vs. Julio Jones who got shut down in the all american game by Jenoris Jenkins who will be on his ass like white on rice Saturday
Tight ends - Arron Hernandez the TD machine and Guess who is finally ready to play C.I. (and dont worry about burning his medical redshirt because he is going to the NFL) vs Does it really matter because JPW cant get them the ball.
O Line - The meanest 6 foot 5 inch 312 lb Twins on the planet(Pouncey's) vs well OK even I have to admit bama has a SLIGHT edge here (Andre is a bad man)
Special Teams - Did I mention this is the gators we are talking about (Special Teams players are kings on this team) They get first dibs on equipment, they eat first, starters beg Urban for a spot on the ST's vs once again does it really matter
D-line - Forget Cody, Carlos Dunlap is 6 foot 6 inches 290 lbs and leads the SEC in Sacks. he has also blocked a couple of kicks.
Linebackers - Brandon "the warlord" Spikes is hands down the best linebacker in college football and will be a first round pick vs for fear of spikes I will not compare him to anyone
Secondary - As I've already mentioned A) JPW wont get the ball to the Bama recievers and B) Tim Tebow has to many weapons at his disposal for it to matter. But Just to reiterate, Julio Jones was absoloutely shut down by Jenoris Jenkins in the All American Game.
Add asll of this up and multiply it by the fact that they are playing on Turf and you get
(Tim Tebow + Brandon Spikes) x fastest show on turf = UF 63 Bama 10, they will score once the gators put the third team in.
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delphioracle | 10 |
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Tim Tebow's whole entire life up to this point has been about leading the Florida Gators into the Georgia Dome to play for a SEC championship. He has been visualizing this moment since he was old enough to know what a football is. If you think there is a defense in the country who will be able to match the contagious intensity and focus that the florida players will be feeling as a result of the Tim Tebow factor you are nuts.
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Thechad10 | 122 |
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Adding: Kansas pk
SJSU +9 bought hook
Updated Week 9 Card:
3 Units:
LSU -2 1/2
Oregon -4
Nevada -3
2 Units:
Ohio State +3
1 Unit:
Ohio/Temple Under 43
Ohio State ML
Boston College +3
Miami -3
Virginia +14
FSU -4 bought hook
Mich St -4
Illinois -2 1/2
SMU +12 1/2
NC State +10 1/2
USF -5
Kansas PK
SJSU +9 bought hook |
delphioracle | 9 |
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Quote Originally Posted by gamehenger:
im a bama homer and i think this is a trap game for bama. i wouldnt take the points but i would take the tennessee ML though. i think bama either blows them away or lets tennessee stick around long enough to beat them. by the way, they are calling for showers and the field will definitely be wet from thunderstorms the day before and morning of. alabama leads the sec in rushing and has three superb backs. tennessee? well, they dont. eric berry cant run the ball, can he? if it is a sloppy field and raining i would definitely take the team that has been running the ball with authority and stopping the run in every game they have been a part of. if conditions are fare its hard to say what bama team will show up mainly due to john parker wilson. i was at the ole miss game last week and i saw two touchdown passes by jpw that about 40 yards long each and they could not have been placed in the recievers hands in a better spot. he was on the money. that was the first half. second half it was a different story. if jp is on tennessee will get beat by 30. if he is not, then who knows what could happen. GL to all! Arian Foster could end up as the Vols all time leading rusher. Ahead of guys like Lewis and Henry. He may be having a rough year because of their struggles passing the ball but he is a great back.
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goofy | 41 |
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You say OSU is overrated.
Seems to me you are betting on the 2 most overrated teams in the country (Bama, PSU).
And you are taking a UGA team that is playing one of the most undervalued teams.
I think you lose two out of three for sure (PSU, UGA) and Tenn might jump up and beat Bama as well.
Best of Luck.
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ACARPIO32 | 5 |
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AUB 24
WV 14
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Lou | 102 |
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I am with you on all three. I hope you win.
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BennyTheJet | 40 |
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Quote Originally Posted by martino850:
Big Sam do you happen to know a few guys from Andalusia, Al?
LBW |
goofy | 41 |
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AtlFader, Thanks.
I am starting to second guess taking UVA, USF, and SMU. I haven't pulled the trigger yet on these and might back out.
I have already locked in NEV, ORE, BC, Miami, FSU, MSU, Illinois, and NC State.
Still waiting for more favorable lines on Kansas, SJSU, OSU, LSU but I am taking all of these 4 for sure.
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delphioracle | 9 |
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1 winner so far. Tuesday unders are easy. Now the real test begins.
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delphioracle | 9 |
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David Cutcliff knows Vandy very well. Duke will come to play.
SJSU might win SU.
Everything tells me ND should blow out the Huskies, but, Ty Willingham's team might have some extra motivation looking for their first W against ND.
I don't play teasers but I don't necessarily despise them. This one looks pretty weak though. You could find 3 better games to tease.
A good ACC teaser would be Virginia, NC State, and BC.
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JPATT36 | 3 |
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Wait untill game time and you could see some nice value on both of these. Good Luck.
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moneyfornothing | 46 |
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Good luck this week.
You are already on 3 of my 4 biggest plays this week (Nev, Ore, OSU) my other big play is LSU.
Take a look at an undervalued FSU team at home for the first time in over a month against Vtech. I also really like Mich St -4 and a stong Boston College defense against a beat up UNC team.
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PeterGrifin1Fan | 24 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Alexjr28:
I got 2 words for you...Eric Berry. I like Tennessee in this spot also, especially since they're playing in Knoxville and Cody is out for Bama.
I am staying away from this one but I totally agree. Eric Berry and the Vol secondary will give JPW fits. |
goofy | 41 |
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Quote Originally Posted by lobosrule:
no way in hell Bama will lose... and i would be shocked if NW does... the two that are dangerous on that card are Jax and Car...
Never underestimte the power of a Tenn team to win a big game and save Fulmer's job. You need to stop watching so much ESPN and listening to them tell you how good Bama is. |
GeorgeCarlin | 15 |
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