EnglandPatriot

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replied to Guess Philly is going to cover too as well in NFL Betting Umm... what? Based on the mid-week spreads, dogs are 8-6 so far this week. Cowboys, Vikings, Jets, Dolphins, Packers, 49ers, Browns, Giants all covered and were dogs mid-week. I think a couple of those dogs switched to small faves by game time, I know the Packers did and maybe dolphins? Either way it's a pretty standard week, neither side is rolling. 5 of the teams above won straight up, actually a pretty good week for dogs. View Post \| View Thread	Digitalkarma	12	December 03, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Panthers @ Jets write-up in NFL Betting Mcmanus and undermysac - Cheers bpickin - Not particularly, to be honest. I largely ignore trends and focus on capping games, at the end of the day it's about the units and players on the field and how they match up. People give far too much weight to trends that don't mean much IMO, I like to look at stats that tell a story and give an insight into how the next game could look, rather than a broad stroke, birds eye view of what's happened in the past. For instance, what does a positive ATS record actually tell us? It only really gives us an idea of either how much a team has been underrated or how much they've over-performed up until now. But if we give the bookies enough credit to presume that they will adjust their ratings based on those performances, then the future spreads will be adjusted for those performances anyway, meaning the previous ATS record is no predictor of their future record ATS. I will admit that the Jets have played decently at home, with good wins over Buffalo and Jacksonville. It doesn't change my mind though, the home advantage was priced into the opening line and the Panthers are performing well on the road (4-1 SU and ATS). BOL whatever you choose View Post \| View Thread	EnglandPatriot	26	November 25, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Panthers @ Jets write-up in NFL Betting Cheers Dogjimbo a4u2fear: Of those 5 games they have only covered the 5.5 twice, but the games they didn't cover were shootouts against the Patriots and Lions, both far better teams than the Jets. Football outsiders Team efficiency ratings puts NE at #6 and Detroit at #11, compared to the Jets at #27. The other was against Chicago which was rightly described as a game of "3 plays". Chicago had 2 defensive touchdowns, one from a fumble a one from a pick six. Then they threw a 50 yarder downfield for a touchdown. You can't cap those kind of plays, that's just football. I don't expect this to be a shootout like the Detroit or New England games. I expect this to be pretty one sided with Carolina's defense taking control of the game and the Jets really struggling to move the ball. On the other side, the main difficulty Carolina will see is a tough matchup for Funchess going against Morris Claiborne, but the Jets are weak against tight ends and pass catching running backs, so Olson and McCaffrey could have big games. Plus the X-Factor of Newton's legs and his ability to create something from nothing. Expect to hear Jets fans complaining about the game being rigged when the Jets give up important penalties. I could be wrong, cap the game how you see fit, but from the extensive mismatches and the importance of this game for the Panthers I think they can cover 2 field goals. BOL whatever you do View Post \| View Thread	EnglandPatriot	26	November 25, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by bpickin: Not saying I don’t like the pic... by wouldn’t playing Tampa Bay be considered a big game? It's a huge game. Falcons are 3rd in their division and their remaining schedule is ranked #1 most difficult in the league. This is a must win for the Falcons. Their remaining schedule after this game contains NO twice, Vikings, Carolina and Tampa Bay Away. They have to beat the Buccs at home here. Whether they cover 10 is another matter, but the Falcons will absolutely be giving this game their full attention. View Post \| View Thread	EastsideBangers	22	November 25, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Panthers @ Jets write-up in NFL Betting Member for 5 years and I've never posted a pick? Better late than never. Panthers @ Jets I'm a big fan of Monty Andrews' weekly "NFL mismatches" article where this week he mentions the Greg Olsen return vs the Jets struggles vs tight ends. It's a nice angle and I'd like to add a couple more mismatches from this game. Penalties mismatch: Panthers #1 in penalties given, Jets #30 Panthers are only giving up 4.5 penalties per game, lowest in the league. Jets are giving up 8.1 penalties per game, averaging 73.9 yards per game given up in penalties, both stats ranking 30th in the league. 3rd down conversions mismatch: Panthers #1 in 3rd down conversions Panthers rank #1 in the league in 3rd down conversion percentage at 46.85%. In their last 3 games that number is up to 52.27% and in their last game a staggering 78.57%. The Jets are allowing their opponents to convert on 3rd down 40.14% of the time, putting them in the bottom half of the table at #19. Carolina Defensive DVOA vs Jets Offensive DVOA Carolina ranked #6 in Defensive DVOA. Jets ranked #27 in Offensive DVOA. Panthers D-Line vs Jets O-Line Panthers pass rush ranks #4 in DVOA. Jets pass blocking ranks #31 in DVOA, allowing 32 total sacks, 3.2 per game average (#28 in league)and 10.3% adjusted sack rate (#31 in league). Jets allowed 6 sacks in their last game. Power Success Rate Panthers rank #2 in Power Success rate allowed - when opponents are in a 3rd or 4th and 2 or lower situation and run the ball, Panthers are allowing only a 39% success rate, second lowest in the league. On the other side, when the Jets are in those 3rd/4th and 2 (or less) positions, they're only getting success 43% of the time, ranking #30 in the league. Stuff Percentage Mismatch Jets are getting stuffed on 27% of runs, putting them at #28 in the league. On the other side the Panthers are stuffing opponents on 25% of runs, good for #5 in the league. First downs per game This is a double whammy. Panthers rank 6th in First Downs Per game with 20.8, while the Jets allow 20.6 First Down Per Game, putting them in 24th. The mismatch is bigger on the other side, the Jets are only managing 16.6 First Downs Per Game, ranking #30, while the Panthers are only allowing 15.7 per game, which is the second lowest rate in the league (#2). I expect the Jets to have a very hard time in this game. McCown should see a lot of pressures and sacks with his O-Line being completed outmatched by Carolina's D-Line. The stuff percentages would indicate the Jets aren't going to have much fun when they try to run the ball either. Carolina are particularly stout in 3rd and short situations, where the Jets have ranked among the worst in the league. Panthers should greatly outpace the Jets in First Downs, in no small part due to their offense ranked #1 in 3rd down conversions. Quite simply the Jets are outmatched on both sides of the ball here, most obviously when their offense are on the field. To add insult to injury, the Jets are likely to have a negative penalty margin and the Panthers get back their star tight end and will probably try to involve him early to shake off the cobwebs. The Panthers (7-3) also sit sandwiched between the Saints on 8 wins and the Falcons on 6 wins. The Falcons are expected to win this week but the Saints are in the rare situation of being underdogs. This is a tight race in the NFC South and I expect to see a very motivated Panthers team hoping to draw level with the division leader with this win. If you got the -4.5, good for you. I'm still happy to take the Panthers -5.5 View Post \| View Thread	EnglandPatriot	26	November 25, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Carolina game RIGGED in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by BonLuu: Look at Car play calling.. with 3:30 left , that is plenty of time to move the ball ...Yet Cam decide to toss long pass one after another till is end up other team hand .How you guy explain that ? Did you watch the game? Stewart had 8 carries for -4 yards, Whittaker had negative rushing yards, Mccaffrey had 8 yards on 4 attempts, they couldn't run the ball AT ALL. That kinda limits the options. View Post \| View Thread	BallsDeep23	15	October 13, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Adv. Statistical Perspective II, TNF in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by DrJohn3719: While both teams' subpar secondaries will be spotlighted on Thurs., Sub par secondaries? You do realize this game has 3 of the top 10 cornerbacks in the game playing by completion percentage allowed, right? (Alford, Trufant, Breaux) View Post \| View Thread	DrJohn3719	41	October 15, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to All depends on the refs.... in NFL Betting Funny, this sounds an awful lot like people who lose at poker claiming the poker site is rigged. It's almost as if people who suck at something need to an excuse to rationalize why they lost, it can't possibly be because THEY suck, it must be the whole system that's out to get them. View Post \| View Thread	DirtNap	17	October 12, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to For what it's worth... NFL Betting System in NFL Betting Would you like to share the formula you're using for this? I could maybe help refine it a bit. Seems like some kind of minimum value threshold should be determined so you don't end up with picks for every game. Our ability to be selective with which games we play is our biggest edge. View Post \| View Thread	csmit19	13	October 12, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Betting road favorites in the nfl is a sure way to go broke in NFL Betting Away faves since 2013 are 50.8% ATS, 63.4% SU. Since 2010? 50.3% ATS and 63.7% SU Since 2005? 52.0% ATS and 66.5% SU Seems to me that betting on home dogs hasn't hit over 50% for the last decade, so that's probably the quicker way to go broke champ. (It's a no bet for me, but if you're gonna take such a simplified approach to betting at least make sure the numbers back your assertions) View Post \| View Thread	DLC53	25	November 17, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Steelers were he laughing stock of the nfl 3 weeks ago in NFL Betting lol it is a good point, the public have been overreacting like crazy this year e.g. "Brady is finished" and everyone loving the Chargers when they had the easiest starting schedule in the league... View Post \| View Thread	Zman55	5	November 09, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Steelers were he laughing stock of the nfl 3 weeks ago in NFL Betting lol it is a good point, the public have been overreacting like crazy this year e.g. "Brady is finished" and everyone loving the Chargers when they had the easiest starting schedule in the league... View Post \| View Thread	Zman55	5	November 09, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Double digit faves in NFL Betting Double digit faves are 3-6 (33%) ATS since week 1 So if what you meant was double digit dogs, then yes they have covered more this year than usual, but it's a small sample View Post \| View Thread	JonEphotBall	3	November 05, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Week 8 NFL Picks from the Slug in NFL Betting Are you named after a line in "goodbye world" by any chance? View Post \| View Thread	bananaslugs	2	October 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to i need colts in NFL Betting No interception but Colts fumbled/ball was stripped in red zone, bengals recovered. View Post \| View Thread	winningandlos	7	October 19, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Cincinnati...? Did I lose my mind ? in NFL Betting What's your reasoning for cinci 1st qtr? Indy have the #1 1st qtr ppg and #1 1st qtr points allowed. Colts last 3 games allowed a total of zero points 1st qtr... It does seem like a decent spot for cinci to try and come out strong but I couldn't be confident in it View Post \| View Thread	Gavinnick	3	October 19, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to New Orleans Saints v. Detroit Lions – NFL Week 7 in NFL Betting Nice write up, but not sure I agree the saints are overrated, most people seem to be saying they suck right now. In fact, looking at their offensive stats I was pretty shocked, saints are ranked: 2nd in YPG, 3rd in YPP, 2nd best completion %, 6th most TD's per game, 1st for 1st downs per game, 3rd for 3rd down completion %, 8th in red zone scoring % (TD only). So while you can say saints D sucks, the stats make them one of the most efficient offenses in the league right now (ignoring the fact they have worst turnover margin in the league lol) Would love to hear some insight from anyone who watched the full saints games @ Dallas and @ Cleveland. My initial lean was lions, but the line movements are making me think twice. BOL though View Post \| View Thread	Hakan_Picks	6	October 18, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Determining the House Edge (Another math exercise) in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: The problem with this is, picking jelly beans from a jar is 100% luck based proposition, capping games is far more skilled based.Can not compare or compute luck VS skill , the 2 are not equal and can not be measured equally. Not sure what your point is here. It doesnt matter whether you get there by luck or skill or sorcery, if you win more than 52.4% of your bets at -110 odds, you're making money. View Post \| View Thread	Ed-Collins	31	October 18, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to odds makers had it right the first 2 hours in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by cesimmns: Wed... Have you watched football any for the past two years. P"e"yton has had neck surgeries and consistent troubles in the elements and it is common knowledge that his arm strength isn't close to what it used to be RW on the other hand has a qb rtg of over 100 For his first 2 seasons (never been done before ) and will be playing along side one of the best defenses in the history of the game I mean... Come on man... lmao. Maybe at the start of the season you could've raised doubts regarding his neck injuries etc. but he's just come out this season and broken all kinds of NFL records. Most players with 10 or more touchdowns Most passing 1st downs Most points Most touchdowns Most games with 50+ points Most points in 2nd half Most passing touchdowns Most passing yards Most 400 yard passing games Most 4 touchdown passing games The list goes on and on, so if you're going to base your pick on Seattle's awesome defense then that's fine, just don't try and make out like Peyton is going to be some kind of liability here lol, the Seattle D will be more afraid of Peyton than any other QB in the league, weather be damned. View Post \| View Thread	mafioso	30	January 25, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to I don't understand the line movement in Indy/KC in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by Coatsy: Wow, you people think the line movements mean nothing?? Would love to hear a logical reason why you think this way. It's not that the line movements mean nothing, it's about how people misread them. Line movements happen for 2 main reasons - highly unbalanced betting and team news. All the team news was already out before the line started moving on this game, which means the line movement is just down to the betting patterns. The betting patterns themselves don't influence the game in any way, so if you're letting other people's betting influence you, you're probably giving too much weight to other people's opinions View Post \| View Thread	Frank the Bank	153	January 04, 2014 View Post \| View Thread

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Entries	Thread Author	Posts	Activity
replied to Guess Philly is going to cover too as well in NFL Betting Umm... what? Based on the mid-week spreads, dogs are 8-6 so far this week. Cowboys, Vikings, Jets, Dolphins, Packers, 49ers, Browns, Giants all covered and were dogs mid-week. I think a couple of those dogs switched to small faves by game time, I know the Packers did and maybe dolphins? Either way it's a pretty standard week, neither side is rolling. 5 of the teams above won straight up, actually a pretty good week for dogs. View Post \| View Thread	Digitalkarma	12	December 03, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Panthers @ Jets write-up in NFL Betting Mcmanus and undermysac - Cheers bpickin - Not particularly, to be honest. I largely ignore trends and focus on capping games, at the end of the day it's about the units and players on the field and how they match up. People give far too much weight to trends that don't mean much IMO, I like to look at stats that tell a story and give an insight into how the next game could look, rather than a broad stroke, birds eye view of what's happened in the past. For instance, what does a positive ATS record actually tell us? It only really gives us an idea of either how much a team has been underrated or how much they've over-performed up until now. But if we give the bookies enough credit to presume that they will adjust their ratings based on those performances, then the future spreads will be adjusted for those performances anyway, meaning the previous ATS record is no predictor of their future record ATS. I will admit that the Jets have played decently at home, with good wins over Buffalo and Jacksonville. It doesn't change my mind though, the home advantage was priced into the opening line and the Panthers are performing well on the road (4-1 SU and ATS). BOL whatever you choose View Post \| View Thread	EnglandPatriot	26	November 25, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Panthers @ Jets write-up in NFL Betting Cheers Dogjimbo a4u2fear: Of those 5 games they have only covered the 5.5 twice, but the games they didn't cover were shootouts against the Patriots and Lions, both far better teams than the Jets. Football outsiders Team efficiency ratings puts NE at #6 and Detroit at #11, compared to the Jets at #27. The other was against Chicago which was rightly described as a game of "3 plays". Chicago had 2 defensive touchdowns, one from a fumble a one from a pick six. Then they threw a 50 yarder downfield for a touchdown. You can't cap those kind of plays, that's just football. I don't expect this to be a shootout like the Detroit or New England games. I expect this to be pretty one sided with Carolina's defense taking control of the game and the Jets really struggling to move the ball. On the other side, the main difficulty Carolina will see is a tough matchup for Funchess going against Morris Claiborne, but the Jets are weak against tight ends and pass catching running backs, so Olson and McCaffrey could have big games. Plus the X-Factor of Newton's legs and his ability to create something from nothing. Expect to hear Jets fans complaining about the game being rigged when the Jets give up important penalties. I could be wrong, cap the game how you see fit, but from the extensive mismatches and the importance of this game for the Panthers I think they can cover 2 field goals. BOL whatever you do View Post \| View Thread	EnglandPatriot	26	November 25, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by bpickin: Not saying I don’t like the pic... by wouldn’t playing Tampa Bay be considered a big game? It's a huge game. Falcons are 3rd in their division and their remaining schedule is ranked #1 most difficult in the league. This is a must win for the Falcons. Their remaining schedule after this game contains NO twice, Vikings, Carolina and Tampa Bay Away. They have to beat the Buccs at home here. Whether they cover 10 is another matter, but the Falcons will absolutely be giving this game their full attention. View Post \| View Thread	EastsideBangers	22	November 25, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Panthers @ Jets write-up in NFL Betting Member for 5 years and I've never posted a pick? Better late than never. Panthers @ Jets I'm a big fan of Monty Andrews' weekly "NFL mismatches" article where this week he mentions the Greg Olsen return vs the Jets struggles vs tight ends. It's a nice angle and I'd like to add a couple more mismatches from this game. Penalties mismatch: Panthers #1 in penalties given, Jets #30 Panthers are only giving up 4.5 penalties per game, lowest in the league. Jets are giving up 8.1 penalties per game, averaging 73.9 yards per game given up in penalties, both stats ranking 30th in the league. 3rd down conversions mismatch: Panthers #1 in 3rd down conversions Panthers rank #1 in the league in 3rd down conversion percentage at 46.85%. In their last 3 games that number is up to 52.27% and in their last game a staggering 78.57%. The Jets are allowing their opponents to convert on 3rd down 40.14% of the time, putting them in the bottom half of the table at #19. Carolina Defensive DVOA vs Jets Offensive DVOA Carolina ranked #6 in Defensive DVOA. Jets ranked #27 in Offensive DVOA. Panthers D-Line vs Jets O-Line Panthers pass rush ranks #4 in DVOA. Jets pass blocking ranks #31 in DVOA, allowing 32 total sacks, 3.2 per game average (#28 in league)and 10.3% adjusted sack rate (#31 in league). Jets allowed 6 sacks in their last game. Power Success Rate Panthers rank #2 in Power Success rate allowed - when opponents are in a 3rd or 4th and 2 or lower situation and run the ball, Panthers are allowing only a 39% success rate, second lowest in the league. On the other side, when the Jets are in those 3rd/4th and 2 (or less) positions, they're only getting success 43% of the time, ranking #30 in the league. Stuff Percentage Mismatch Jets are getting stuffed on 27% of runs, putting them at #28 in the league. On the other side the Panthers are stuffing opponents on 25% of runs, good for #5 in the league. First downs per game This is a double whammy. Panthers rank 6th in First Downs Per game with 20.8, while the Jets allow 20.6 First Down Per Game, putting them in 24th. The mismatch is bigger on the other side, the Jets are only managing 16.6 First Downs Per Game, ranking #30, while the Panthers are only allowing 15.7 per game, which is the second lowest rate in the league (#2). I expect the Jets to have a very hard time in this game. McCown should see a lot of pressures and sacks with his O-Line being completed outmatched by Carolina's D-Line. The stuff percentages would indicate the Jets aren't going to have much fun when they try to run the ball either. Carolina are particularly stout in 3rd and short situations, where the Jets have ranked among the worst in the league. Panthers should greatly outpace the Jets in First Downs, in no small part due to their offense ranked #1 in 3rd down conversions. Quite simply the Jets are outmatched on both sides of the ball here, most obviously when their offense are on the field. To add insult to injury, the Jets are likely to have a negative penalty margin and the Panthers get back their star tight end and will probably try to involve him early to shake off the cobwebs. The Panthers (7-3) also sit sandwiched between the Saints on 8 wins and the Falcons on 6 wins. The Falcons are expected to win this week but the Saints are in the rare situation of being underdogs. This is a tight race in the NFC South and I expect to see a very motivated Panthers team hoping to draw level with the division leader with this win. If you got the -4.5, good for you. I'm still happy to take the Panthers -5.5 View Post \| View Thread	EnglandPatriot	26	November 25, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Carolina game RIGGED in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by BonLuu: Look at Car play calling.. with 3:30 left , that is plenty of time to move the ball ...Yet Cam decide to toss long pass one after another till is end up other team hand .How you guy explain that ? Did you watch the game? Stewart had 8 carries for -4 yards, Whittaker had negative rushing yards, Mccaffrey had 8 yards on 4 attempts, they couldn't run the ball AT ALL. That kinda limits the options. View Post \| View Thread	BallsDeep23	15	October 13, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Adv. Statistical Perspective II, TNF in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by DrJohn3719: While both teams' subpar secondaries will be spotlighted on Thurs., Sub par secondaries? You do realize this game has 3 of the top 10 cornerbacks in the game playing by completion percentage allowed, right? (Alford, Trufant, Breaux) View Post \| View Thread	DrJohn3719	41	October 15, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to All depends on the refs.... in NFL Betting Funny, this sounds an awful lot like people who lose at poker claiming the poker site is rigged. It's almost as if people who suck at something need to an excuse to rationalize why they lost, it can't possibly be because THEY suck, it must be the whole system that's out to get them. View Post \| View Thread	DirtNap	17	October 12, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to For what it's worth... NFL Betting System in NFL Betting Would you like to share the formula you're using for this? I could maybe help refine it a bit. Seems like some kind of minimum value threshold should be determined so you don't end up with picks for every game. Our ability to be selective with which games we play is our biggest edge. View Post \| View Thread	csmit19	13	October 12, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Betting road favorites in the nfl is a sure way to go broke in NFL Betting Away faves since 2013 are 50.8% ATS, 63.4% SU. Since 2010? 50.3% ATS and 63.7% SU Since 2005? 52.0% ATS and 66.5% SU Seems to me that betting on home dogs hasn't hit over 50% for the last decade, so that's probably the quicker way to go broke champ. (It's a no bet for me, but if you're gonna take such a simplified approach to betting at least make sure the numbers back your assertions) View Post \| View Thread	DLC53	25	November 17, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Steelers were he laughing stock of the nfl 3 weeks ago in NFL Betting lol it is a good point, the public have been overreacting like crazy this year e.g. "Brady is finished" and everyone loving the Chargers when they had the easiest starting schedule in the league... View Post \| View Thread	Zman55	5	November 09, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Steelers were he laughing stock of the nfl 3 weeks ago in NFL Betting lol it is a good point, the public have been overreacting like crazy this year e.g. "Brady is finished" and everyone loving the Chargers when they had the easiest starting schedule in the league... View Post \| View Thread	Zman55	5	November 09, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Double digit faves in NFL Betting Double digit faves are 3-6 (33%) ATS since week 1 So if what you meant was double digit dogs, then yes they have covered more this year than usual, but it's a small sample View Post \| View Thread	JonEphotBall	3	November 05, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Week 8 NFL Picks from the Slug in NFL Betting Are you named after a line in "goodbye world" by any chance? View Post \| View Thread	bananaslugs	2	October 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to i need colts in NFL Betting No interception but Colts fumbled/ball was stripped in red zone, bengals recovered. View Post \| View Thread	winningandlos	7	October 19, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Cincinnati...? Did I lose my mind ? in NFL Betting What's your reasoning for cinci 1st qtr? Indy have the #1 1st qtr ppg and #1 1st qtr points allowed. Colts last 3 games allowed a total of zero points 1st qtr... It does seem like a decent spot for cinci to try and come out strong but I couldn't be confident in it View Post \| View Thread	Gavinnick	3	October 19, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to New Orleans Saints v. Detroit Lions – NFL Week 7 in NFL Betting Nice write up, but not sure I agree the saints are overrated, most people seem to be saying they suck right now. In fact, looking at their offensive stats I was pretty shocked, saints are ranked: 2nd in YPG, 3rd in YPP, 2nd best completion %, 6th most TD's per game, 1st for 1st downs per game, 3rd for 3rd down completion %, 8th in red zone scoring % (TD only). So while you can say saints D sucks, the stats make them one of the most efficient offenses in the league right now (ignoring the fact they have worst turnover margin in the league lol) Would love to hear some insight from anyone who watched the full saints games @ Dallas and @ Cleveland. My initial lean was lions, but the line movements are making me think twice. BOL though View Post \| View Thread	Hakan_Picks	6	October 18, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Determining the House Edge (Another math exercise) in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: The problem with this is, picking jelly beans from a jar is 100% luck based proposition, capping games is far more skilled based.Can not compare or compute luck VS skill , the 2 are not equal and can not be measured equally. Not sure what your point is here. It doesnt matter whether you get there by luck or skill or sorcery, if you win more than 52.4% of your bets at -110 odds, you're making money. View Post \| View Thread	Ed-Collins	31	October 18, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to odds makers had it right the first 2 hours in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by cesimmns: Wed... Have you watched football any for the past two years. P"e"yton has had neck surgeries and consistent troubles in the elements and it is common knowledge that his arm strength isn't close to what it used to be RW on the other hand has a qb rtg of over 100 For his first 2 seasons (never been done before ) and will be playing along side one of the best defenses in the history of the game I mean... Come on man... lmao. Maybe at the start of the season you could've raised doubts regarding his neck injuries etc. but he's just come out this season and broken all kinds of NFL records. Most players with 10 or more touchdowns Most passing 1st downs Most points Most touchdowns Most games with 50+ points Most points in 2nd half Most passing touchdowns Most passing yards Most 400 yard passing games Most 4 touchdown passing games The list goes on and on, so if you're going to base your pick on Seattle's awesome defense then that's fine, just don't try and make out like Peyton is going to be some kind of liability here lol, the Seattle D will be more afraid of Peyton than any other QB in the league, weather be damned. View Post \| View Thread	mafioso	30	January 25, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to I don't understand the line movement in Indy/KC in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by Coatsy: Wow, you people think the line movements mean nothing?? Would love to hear a logical reason why you think this way. It's not that the line movements mean nothing, it's about how people misread them. Line movements happen for 2 main reasons - highly unbalanced betting and team news. All the team news was already out before the line started moving on this game, which means the line movement is just down to the betting patterns. The betting patterns themselves don't influence the game in any way, so if you're letting other people's betting influence you, you're probably giving too much weight to other people's opinions View Post \| View Thread	Frank the Bank	153	January 04, 2014 View Post \| View Thread

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