gutinstinctus

We

@firesox

 Well those shit QBs you are describing had a hell of a better record than the Bradys/Rodgers of the league. Its 11vs 11... QB matters a lot but this is the ultimate team game

Cheers to all and thanks for stopping by! All the best!

Cheers DK, Wish you all the best today and always.

Regarding the Schedule, KC and the AFC West also faced the AFC South. In fact, the Chiefs lost to the Colts...  I wouldnt say the NFC North is soft. Detroit sucks and will always do, but Minnesota was the 2nd seed, Chicago had a winning record, and the 8-9 cheeseheads, arent as bad as their record IMO. 

KC´s O line is solid, but RT is its highest vulnerability. And that is where Reddick feasts. 

BOL in whatever your plays are! Thanks for taking the time to reply lenghtily!

You are completely correct in what you state. Its all about the pressure that the front guys put in. If you blitz Mahomes with 7-8 guys, he is smart and good enough to find the open man quickly. There are two good things going for Philly in terms of their D Line pressure:

i) The great secondary it has, enables it to almost always have 5 guys in the front. 5 on 5, when you have: Hasson Reddick, Hargraves, Fletcher Cox, Sweat and Brandon Graham most be a sight that makes you shit your pants as an O-Lineman. 

ii) Reddick alligns left, so he will match up  against KC O line´s biggest liability in Andrew Wylie. And I doubt Reid is bringing much support for that matchup (not like they are going to block with Kelce, or that Isiah Pacheco can pose some obstacle to that SOB  when Reddick beats Wylie (it is "when", and not "if"). 

That secondary will allow Philly to scheme against KC under those presumptions is way simpler. You bring your front 5 and that is more than enough to generate the required pressure to make him uncomfortable. You trust Slay and Bradberry on the 1 on 1, and then one of your safeties should always have that extra eye on Kelce. Yes... this makes you vulnerable vs the run, and RB screens, but lets trust Andy Reid to behave like Andy Reid. If he adapts and goes with an Isiah Pacheco heavy gameplan, well, we are screwed haha. But my type of capping says, there is a very low chance of that happening. 

One last thing. For all KC backers, the way I see KC winning requires a lot of Kelce and a lot of Isiah Pacheco. If you have your reasons to back the Chiefs... take a deep look into those props, because that is the path to the Lombardi for KC. 

4. KC´s defense. Dont get me wrong. Im not biased to the point of denying how good this D is. 2nd best pass rush in the league (but the difference is 15 sacks). KC has been as good as Philly against WR and appears to be better against the run. But there are two grains of salt that must be taken: 
a) Despite all of the trash that was spoken agains Philly´s super easy schedule during the course of the season, once that everything ended, we go back to check the stats and theEagles actually had the TOUGHEST schedule in the NFL. Why... well mainly because the NFC Least turned into NFC Beast, placed 3 out of the 4 last teams standing in the NFC. Dont believe me... here is the data to back that up: https://eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com/schedule/strength-of-schedule.html  As you can see, was middle of the road in terms of strength of schedule. 

b) KC has not faced anything close to this Offense. Against the more well rounded/scrambling QB offenses they struggled more. Josh Allen got them. The Chargers got them once and lost a close one later. The shit faced Broncos, had 2 very close games on them. Opposing QBs averaged 5 ypc against them, despite not facing Baltimore, Philly, NYG or Chicago. I insist, this Offense is a different animal, because of the ammount of weapons it has, and especially the quality of all those weapons summed up. This Eagles team is almost certainly the all time Madden favorite team to use. 

So... final enligthenment... why parlaying Total with Philly ML: 
1.  The Eagles dont give a fuck about covering 1.5, they only care about winning. Allign me with their interests. 
2. If Philly goes ahead, Philly should continue to run and consume the clock, and Reid will do what he always does: pass pass pass, making KC one dimensional against a top 5 all time pass rush.

3. Also, I told you I respect KC´s defense, and I dont see it likely that Philly scores 30 on them. I actually think just betting the under is a good bet. But the under hits way more if Philly is ahead and if Philly wins the game, than if KC goes ahead and Philly is forced to pass and reduce the time consumption machine that they have been throughout the season. 

Cheers and GL. If anyone has a site that offers a roughing the passer flag prop, please let me know. We will see some of those with these 2 beasts of pass rushing Ds. Id say, they are by far the best pass rush Ds combined in the history of the Super Bowl.  

Ive gone away, mostly because of the lack of in depth discussion that can make us gain something other than just pouring knowledge for free. But I have no problem on providing my pick and commenting on this thread, just for the sake of the superbowl and enlightening those that still dwell in the dark after a long season. Hopefully my bet cashes, you bet your houses on it, and get out of the red numbers for the season.  

My bet is Philly. And I happen to believe that out of all games that Philly wins, at least 60% go under, so there is a lot of value of parlaying Philly ML and Under 50.5. So my bet is:Philly ML +Under 50.5 @+260 Now comes the enligthment. Pay attention, take notes, and learn the art of capping:  

1. Philly is a much more balanced offense. You have a great tough to predict running attack in the league with Sanders (4.9 ypc) and Hurts (4.6 ypc). You have arguably the top 3 1-2 WR punch in the NFL with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith (I know there are guys with better numbers, but they are playing on much less balanced offenses), and add Dallas Goedert for the 3rd downs and goal line chances. Sum it up with one of the league´s best O-Lines.  Gameplanning against this offense is almost impossible. If I was Reid, Id try to have Hurts beat me through the air, but, hell, that SOB with those weapons can do it as easily as through the ground. 

2. KC´s offense. KC is Mahomes and Kelce. That is the best duo in the league and no one can dispute it. Its like what Tom and Gronk were on their primes. But the WRs are no big deal... none of them reached 1k yards (while Smith and AJ Brown both did). Isiah Pacheco has been a great revelation as a runner but the guy had 13 catches all season. Now, I am worried, about his recent form vs Cincy where he caught 5. If he adopts a more versatile job it may make it harder for Phily, but by no means is he one of those dual threat RBs. If he is on the field, Phily worries about him running. 

3. Philly´s Defense and its easier ability to scheme vs KC (Kelce). Philadelphia has the best pass rush in the league by a landslide, and one of the best pass rushes in the history of the NFL. SEVENTY MF SACKS! We all know Patrick Mahomes crumbles under pressure... that is why he lost that SB vs Tampa when he had a woed O-Line (in a game where I was on KC and completely underestimated KC´s injuries). This is part of the tough process you have to follow to learn the art of capping... I suffered the wounds, I learned and now I share my knowledge with some strangers (yeah, I am stupid).  Philly will be breathing on Mahomes neck all game long. 

Now, the thing does not stop there... Philly has one of the best CB duos in the league and they proved it time after time. Slay and Bradberry are insane and can get rid of the 2 opposing WRs they are covering. So under that presumption, with KC´s below average WR corpse (Juju and Marquez Valdez lol), Philadelphia can scheme on Kelce. 
Philadelphia´s defense weakness is obviously the run. Dont tell Fat Andy the secret, but in the 3 games that Phily lost this season (Wash, NO and Dallas), those teams ran the rock 30+times in all of them. KC should run the hell out of this game to beat the Eagles. BUT, out of all coaches in the history of mankind, Andy Reid is probably the one that runs the least in games that matter. That is why he almost blew an easy win vs Cincy 2 weeks ago. There is a reason why KC, despite having a 14-3 record, had 417 rush attempts vs 651 pass attempts. That is a 40-60 run vs pass split, despite being well ahead in half of their games. Philly, with the same record had 536-544. Now, that is BALANCE, and that keeps a defense guessing. 

Eagles are better erverywhere except QB and TE. Philly has one of the top 5 Ds in the league to back up an offense that is versatile and complete in all positions. 

The elite pass rush that both Ds have should hold a high total in check. This is even more possible if Philly is ahead and keeps tunning the rock and not forced to pass the ball

Philly ML and the Under. At least 65% of the time Phily wins, we will see less possessions and a lower total. 

If you like KC, which I dont, I believe a KC+Over has more value than KC plain.

Brooklyn won that trade BIG time. Dinwiddie is an unselfish guy, perfect to line up with Luka. Kyrie is not the sharpshooter kinda guy to get open and receive assists from Luka. He is a a ball hog. Once you sum up all the off court bs associated to the diva Irving it is clear that this shit wont work for Dallas.

 This

This. Plus the 14 second shot clock on offensive rebounds introduced a couple seasons ago, plus the new stopping the break foul that gives you a free throw. The tendency towards the over is in place since long ago. Books have adjusted already

The reasons you point out are precisely what make this sport a live bettor´s paradise

Had they played yesterday this was a flip. Cortes vs Civale it should be 4-1 by the end of the 5th

I posted this midway through the 6th. The time to make the bet is 7th inning. If its tied we bet the ML if not the RL will be good

Well another tied bet. Now... the bulloen game favors the Guardians big time. At + money we switch aides and take the indians @+115

Strider will come back, we dont know if for the 3rd or 4th but he will. 

For the Phillies, Nola is a sure one. But who starts the 4th? Gibson? Syndergaard? 

Ill take Strider over Nola. And Ill take Morton against any of those 2 or a bullpen game by such a deep pen. Id even take em in a second if Morton starts vs Nola.

So, better starting pitchers, way better bullpen and as of now, slightly better bats. Yet we see a @1.7 line. Fuck off we are biting 

On a 5th, Fried revenge vs Suarez. You know where the money is at. Take them now... once strider is confirmed this line will disappear

Line aint good enough to bet blown save. Now lets hope KJ does the job