MACX

Heres the thing - and I guess I should articluate it maybe a little bit better:

There will always be places to bet if you want to bet.

But, if you are like me - you make money by having the following conditions - and these are required:

1. Free market with competitve available lines amongs dozens of options of SB's.
2. Free movement of funds between books and home banks
3. Risk of forfeiture of money low due to books going under or confiscation.

You cannot accomplish those three things as an American bettor (unless you set up an offshore presence). In fact, you cant accomplish ANY ONE of those. Up until 2006 we had ALL of those.

So this post is not telling anyone that there wont be a sportsbook somewhere that is always willing to take a deposit and allow you to bet, or find a track to bet at, or a local. This post is saying that if you relied on the 3 things listed above in your method - you are screwed.

If you choose to keep money at Greek or BM, or any other SB that accepts Americans, you are PAYING A FEE FOR RISK. Risk is higher than ever, and if you are willing to accept that risk, there is a cost to it. Im not telling you not to do it (as I have been asked several times in this thread "should I take my money out") - I am simply telling you that you have to evaluate your risk tolerance - because pretending that there is no risk is silly.

You cant compete across sportsbooks for lines, you cant assure getting the lowest line available because you only have a couple of options, you cant move money freely and there is a cost and a risk cost to doing so that has never been higher - throw those things together and you have a recipe for non-profitabliity. I cant see how you can beat that longterm.

Can you go set yourself up in a foreign country with banking, address, and have sportsbooks like Pinnacle, Betfair, Matchbook etc and insulate yoursel? Yes. Does the average person want or have the means to do that? No.

From my point of view (opinion) - I dont know how anyone can make money doing this betting in to -110 lines, with very little competitiion for diversity of spreads, no exchange marketplace, no way to move money freely, and added risk cost. It seems impossible to me. The threshold is just way too high, out of the range of mortal handicappers to win longterm.

So make your own decisions. Keep your eyes and ears open. I wouldnt be surprised if these SB's were shut down tomorrow, and I wouldnt be surprised if they were open in 10 years. The US govt might not be too interested in them because sportsbetting is not going to be legalized anytime soon - and this was just a Hiroshima move to clear the way for the rebuilding contract to be issued to the corporate casinos - who now have a clean slate. But none of this matters to the guy who is trying to be profitable, and finds that the landscape is like trying to play ice hockey on a frozen waterfall.

I dont know much about the inner workings of SB's. I do know that they are not run by rocket scientists and beacons of legitimate business. I also know that poker sites and SB's share processors, and processor techniques.

I think the biggest protection SB's have is that the DOJ might deem them just too small to even matter right now, and that they dont fit the profile of what their objective is - which I feel is to clear the way for corporate legalization.

But dont you think the DOJ has experimented with sending the same WU's you do? Dont you think they know that Michael Jackson Gonzalez is not a real person living in the Philippines and that the SB's have set up a network of WU processors who give out dummy names? Dont you think they could and would squash this if they wanted to and felt the time was right?

Once again, you the sender are in no danger - but the risk here is simply knowing that there are lots of Jamie Moyer fastballs sitting belt high waiting for the DOJ to hit out of the park when they want to. This is my opinion, I have nothing concrete to back this up other than my own observations - but I think you have to be in serious denial to assume that if the DOJ wanted to that they couldnt unravel this ball of yarn anytime they wanted to.

beach, etc...

got a nice deal on a place on seabrooke island for me and the gal.

I saw myrtle is around 240 for flights...but like you said it is about a 2 hr drive...is that route 17 all highway? I could probably bang it out in less time

Hey GH,

Just wondering what sportsbook you are using. I appreciate all the work you do and have tailed you from the start of the year. Out of over 100 picks, i believe 1 time i got better odds than you and the other 99% of the time my odds are worse and in some cases alot worse. It almost seems like you no before you bet what the lines are going to do.

Cheers!!