Matt2688

Mich fan here.  Really tempted to take the Huskies, what a buy low spot this is but I really don’t have a great feel.  

Thought Michigan was tremendous on O.  Yes WM is a MAC program but they’re top of the division for a reason and solid program overall. Very experienced offensive group (some 6 year OL guys) and a good QB/WRs.  They were completely ambushed.  

Yes Washington is a step up, but they’re also missing both starting WRs and they threw 3 picks against Montana.  I think Michigan has a huge weakness at CB on one side of the field and I just don’t know if Washington can take advantage.  He couldn’t handle Montana at home, big house under the lights? That place will be insane, good luck Morris.  

They need to establish the run and just pound away on Michigan.  Josh Ross is a mini Devin bush at LB, Hutch is a stud on the DE. Some serious bruisers this year at all 3 levels I was very impressed with the D however they still have ALOT to prove starting this week.  

Otherside Macnamara graded as the best QB per PFF.  Why? Because he was efficient and didn’t make dangerous throws.  Maybe it was because he didn’t have to… but the offense was rock solid putting up 500+ yards.  You can say “it was WMU” all you want but they’ve only done that like 3x since 2016.  Much stiffer test coming with the Washington defense, so we’ll learn a lot about em.  Overall if it hits 7 I’d probably have to agree and take the points, but tbh I don’t think we really know who either team is yet.  Plenty of better games to bet, gun to my head id go under 50.5 as I think Washington needs to pound the ball consistently whether it’s successful or not and rely on the field position/defense to keep it tight.  

Small side note:  huge recruiting weekend for Michigan for this game.  I think this is a massive game for the program not only for the confidence in the 2021 group but for future UM teams.  Can’t wait to see it

I think I’d blindly bet every pick you see posted.  Most here hit above 90%.  Go big too. #noregrets 

 

For some reason I also feel like i should clarify the incredible amount of sarcasm in the above statement 

@DoubleUp4Life

 

Yep.  Same crap last year had some nice runs in the opener against a depleted Minnesota team, but as you said wait til SEC play he will be benched.  

Gray is still a problem at CB.  But yes night and day from last season

Oh my 

Took them as well. Quick reminder as to why they’re never a real contender.  Fell for it again! Hope they lose

Week 1 BIG CHALK parlay: 

Wisconsin -225

Rutgers -700

Michigan -900

Oregon -1600

USC -650

Alabama -1200

Texas -300

ND -275

 

8 team +342 .25u

CFB '21: 0-1 -1.1u 

Rest of the card

 

2. Oklahoma - 31 1.65/1.5 

I like the Sooners to up into the 50's here. Rattler has an embarrassment of weapons surrounding him that will be tough to stop at any point tomorrow. Tulane now playing an unexpected road opener with the recent hurricane in Louisiana removing them from their home turf. That's quite a distraction, not sure what they focus will be for Tulane here, and this just has the makings of a 40 point blowout with all things considered. Talent alone is enough, throw in the distractions and this gets ugly quick.

3. Georgia / Clemson O 50.5 1.1/1

A lot of people look at this game and see a defensive battle, I think we see some offensive fireworks here. For me, JT Daniels is the game changer at QB that UGA needs to take the next step. Yes there are some pieces missing, but they recruit as good as anyone and have had plenty of time on the practice field. Plus it isn't like Clemson has been great defensively against good competition lately. The strength of the Clemson D is along the line, and Georgia always has a strong OL. The Georgia offense did a lot of good things, even before the transition to Daniels, so I expect they'll score plenty here.  On the other side, Clemson with a new QB and RB.  Although Uiagalelei isn't exactly coming in with no experience. He shined in some big spots filling in last year, and I have no doubts Dabo will unleash this kids talents tomorrow night. Higher scoring game than expected coming.

4. Iowa -3.5 2.75/2.5

Expectations are sky high for the Hoosiers this year, and they are a prime regression candidate. They fed off TO's last year, along with red zone success #'s that will be nearly impossible to duplicate. Think heading on the road to Kinnick is a difficult place to start, no it isn't a November night game but Iowa is a very solid football team. Won't make a ton of mistakes and beat themselves. The Iowa OL reloads yearly, they should dominate on the ground against a Hoosier D that ranked 110 against the run last year.  Defensively, Iowa was top 5 against the run and have a veteran secondary.  Hoosier QB Penix Jr coming off a torn ACL, going to be a lot of pressure on him and again just think this is a difficult place for him to make his return. Iowa by double digits.

5. LSU -2.5 1.1/1

Not a ton to say here.  I like the Tigers to bounce big back this season, thought last year they had some early adversity and injury issues. Add in the weird covid season and these guys just packed it in and went through the motions. They have a DB who is going to be a staple on an NFL defense, and I feel they'll be able to cheat a little tomorrow and make DTR beat them.  If he does than so be it.  If the OL can protect Max then LSU will move it just fine. He was ok last year, 8:1 td/int ratio. Under a FG im on the Tigers. 

@DoubleUp4Life

 9-3 is my guess.  No expectation, they’re being slept on a little this year.  Will get blown out in Madison but other than that they should have a chance to win every game, even the last one.  Now if the DBs are truly 2020 BAD then all bets are off.  

Michigan over 7.5 I like a lot.  Will learn a lot about them in week 2.  Spent a lot of time in AA over the past 5 years.  Last season had the least returning production in the nation plus zero ability to practice or prep because of restrictions in place by the university.  Product on the field reflected it.  I expect major improvements nearly everywhere.  However if that doesn’t happen then yeah you’re probably onto something taking the points! Best of luck!

Typically pick 5 games a week. 

#1. Ohio St / Minnesota under 62.5 -110 1.1u 

 

I don’t often like Ohio State unders but here we are.  The defense should be poor per usual, they were solid under Haftley for one season, but have regressed.  Replace all LB’s lost to the NFL and the secondary isn’t great.  Offensively, OSU will pretty much be a here it is try and stop us team all season.  They have an NFL OL, the top WR corps and probably the best freshman RB in the nation.  They also have CJ Stroud who’s making a first start tonight in poor weather, on the road in a big conference game.  Should be a good atmosphere for the home team and an early test for the Buckeyes. The reason I like this under is because both teams have massive OL and good running games.  Minnesota should try to take advantage of the weather situation here and play a little keep away from the buckeye offense.  Feel like that is their path to a competitive game late in the 4th.  If this opens up it favors OSU big time.  Fan of Tanner Morgan here, but again think weather limits both offenses some.  Keep it on the ground, keep the clock moving, avoid special teams blunders/TOs and let’s cash a ticket to start the season.  OSU 34 Minnesota 20

 

CFB 21: 0-0

 

Not sure how you can say in one sentence you are excited about Joe Milton at Tennessee and then follow it up with not liking the QB room at Michigan. 

Milton was atrocious behind a really good offensive line last year.  If read 1 is unavailable he doesn’t know what to do.  He’s wildly inaccurate.  

Michigan is in much better hands with McNamara and soon McCarthy.  They rotated a lot of dudes on that OL last year and are extremely talented, not to mention HUGE.  3 deep at RB and very good WRs.  Don’t see western having much success on defense.  Western DL avg weight of 272.5 vs Michigan OL avg weight of 323.  Haskins is a powerful back he’s gonna be able to fall forward for 5 yards at a time with that kind of advantage up front.  

definite concerns on the Michigan defense, but that could be a good thing for them here right out of the gate.  The group seems fired up and ready to shut the critics down. Daxton Hill will be everywhere against inferior competition I like Western Michigan’s offense, but this is still Mac vs B1G.  

Think that game is a complete thrashing.  

MLB thoughts

At first glance I'm diggin the Pirates TT over, Blue Jays ML (-125), orioles / Angels game total over 8 (-120).... NHL initial lean is over 5 Pitt/TB. Love the Penguins over 2.5 just not sure what the price is going to be yet.

The playoffs have been good to me, however these conference finals are off to a so-so start. Could use this W tonight! Good luck with your SD under sir... Hopefully the only points being put on the board tonight in CA are goals by the Sharks!!

You're probably right but nobody likes a quitter. Finally hit an over in the pens/lightning series last night. Decided to go very big on the Sharks TT over 2.5 tonight. hopefully Elliot doesn't go all Dominik Hasket in his prime against me tonight!!!

Already made my $$$$ play but quickly falling in love with SJ Sharks TT over 2.5 (-130). This teams operating like a well oiled machine, now the blues head on the road to try and slow the Sharks down. Think the Sharks roll tonight in game 3...

Staying in Cincinatti today for my last $$$$ play this week. Mediocre week so far, 1-1-1. 7-2-2 last 3 weeks on $$$$ plays.

John Tomlin is 5-0 this year with a 3.8 era, heads to a hitter friendly ballpark tonight. The Reds have hit him hard a couple of times in his career. I really like the over for the game once again, but the Reds TT sits at only 3.5. Both bullpens were taxed yesterday in an extra innings slug fest. The Indians offense has been red hot so I'll play the over 8.5 again for the game but my $$$$ play is going to be Reds TT O 3.5 (-120

$$$$ Cincinatti Reds TT over 3.5 (-120)

Full card:
Reds TT over 3.5
Reds/Indians over 8.5 (-105)
Sharks/blues over 5 (even)

Not much I like today. Btw, shout out to lakerz on your write up last night with Eovaldi and the NYY. Great stuff and a spot on play! Glad you got the win for that one buddy, loved reading it. Good luck tonight guys.

Cleveland @ Cincinatti

Home and home series shifts to Cincy tonight. These two teams put up bunches of runs earlier this week against eachother in Cleveland. The Reds send Brandon Finnegan to the mound, he was a stud coming out of the bullpen for the royals in their first World Series trip and was a big piece in the trade for Johnny Cueto last year. Finnegan has good stuff and has the potential to be a quality SP, however he has had big time control issues. The Indians are warming up offensively and should tag Finnegan tonight if he's making mistakes and handing out free passes at the current rate.

The Indians turn to a rookie making his big league debut on the road. Clevinger has been good 5-0 with about a 3 era in AAA. The ballpark in Cincy isn't going to do him any favors tonight, and the Reds still boast a formidable offense. I like the runs to keep on coming tonight.

$$$$ play Reds / Indians over 8.5 (-115) $$$$

Really like the Royals TT over 3.5 tonight as well. Porcello is not as good as this years numbers portray him to be. KC is a legit offense, they can score many different ways and don't strike out very much. Think they tag Porcello tonight. KC TT over 3.5 at +110 is a valuable play! Game total over 7(-120) is a big play for me as well, wish I saw this sooner. Ventura is young and wild, he shows flashes of greatness but the Red Sox have just been killing it at the plate. Love the over for the game!

One thing I forgot to add--- total in Sharks last 10 games has hit at least 5 goals 9 times (exception was game 1). Total has hit at least 5 goals 6 of the last 7 St. Louis games. That's a pretty significant stat IMO. Let's get it!!!!

Not going to have time tomorrow so I'll give my two cents on the hockey game now.

Game one in Saint Louis finished 2-1, I was able to watch almost the entire game, and hopefully develop a good read on this series moving forward. I was backing the under, however my thoughts on Tuesday nights game are leaning the opposite way. There were 55 shots on goal recorded in game 1, many were high quality chances. I noticed both teams did a great job clogging the middle of the ice, lots of blocked or deflected shots. There were also quite a few poor decisions made on odd man rushes up the ice that hurt what should have been quality scoring chances. This is going to be a physical series, I thought the refs let the boys play for the most part, but I wouldn't be surprised if a few more penalties are called in game 2. Definitely some missed calls. San Jose was great on the road this year, I really like there chances Tuesday, they're worth a look at + money. However, my stronger feeling is on the OVER 5. I doubt this is going to be a popular play based on the last game finishing 2-1, and the history of low scoring games between these two teams this year. I felt very fortunate to win the under Sunday night, went about 30 minutes of playing time at 2-1. Lots of great chances and quite a few lucky bounces that kept the puck out of the net. I also feel strongly that game one this deep into the playoffs is more of a feel it out period for both teams. Adjustments will be made on both sides. Jones and Elliot are solid goaltenders, I think they're both going to be tested in what I expect to be a very fast, up and down game with lots of scoring chances. The Sharks have been nothing short of lethal this entire playoffs, I'm still very impressed by what they did to a MUCH better goalie in round 1 (johnathon Quick). I like them to find the net often in game 2, and think the blues hang right with them. Prediction 4-3 Sharks--- maybe some OT in STL in game 2!

$$$$ play San Jose/St. Louis OVER 5 (-110) $$$$

Looks like majority of the $ is on the under at this time, may not be a bad idea to see which way this moves by morning and maybe get an even better price. Good luck with the plays, careful capping and tailing... I believe this thread got punished last Tuesday! I know for me it stands as my only L in the last 9 plays.