PrimedPenguin

If Leake can stretch out another 7 IP today with a hit rate 8 points lower than the norm, I agree that the Reds stand a good chance of winning this game.  I just don't think he can, based on Regression, although admittedly that usually occurs over several games.  The other problem I see for Cincy is Pujols, who's been out-of-whack early, striking out twice his norm.  A rookie pitcher may be just what he needs.

In any event, it'll be a close game (then again, nearly a third of all baseball games are decided by one run, which is why I don't play run lines.)

Anyway, good luck!

D-backs @ Braves  The side is hardly a surprise here and it's pricey.  I'm surprised by the total, though.  Journeyman Rodrigo goes for Zona, and he's not exactly All-Star material; still, Atlanta continues to struggle to string hits together.  Tommy Hanson, on the other hand, has talent coming out of his pores. He has shown improvement in both strikeouts and walks so far this season, and is riding a four-game dominant streak. If you’re looking for warts, Hanson lefties are hitting .284 against him.  Righties, though, are just .183 vs the Atlanta Ace.  Combine  that with the fact Reynolds and Upton, two of the D-Backs' power leaders, are each batting under .225 against RHP, and you get a power--and run--shortage on the Arizona side.  Hanson should carve up the opposition once again today.  Play: UNDER the total of 8.5.

Nats @ Rockies (Game 2):  Washington's Luis Atilano has been fortunate to be at 3-0 with en ERA of 3.57.  The high strand rate (76%) explains much of this.  Colorado sends out Jason Hammel, who's coming off the DL today.Hammels was out of whack mechanically before hitting the DL, and there's nothing of course to indicate anything's changed.  Washington hitters are no slouches.  In what appear to be evenly matched games, I'll take the dog every time.  Play: WASHINGTON +144

Cards @ Reds  St. Louis is also pricey today, but they present value nevertheless.  Adam Wainwright may not be flashy, but he flat out gets it done. Through seven starts, his ERA sits at 2.08 and his WHIP, Control and hr/9 are all at career levels.  He didn't get those numbers by being lucky.  The only caveat is his history at Great American (5.14 ERA).  Mike Leake has been a nice surprise for the Reds, having gone at least 6 IP in all 6 starts for an ERA of 3.10.  Red flag here, though:  Leake's hit-against rate at home is a mere 23%, and he's due for a correction.  If the Cards can score just three today, they win.  PLAY:  St Louis -140

Phillies @ Rockies:  Kyle Kendrick probably salvaged his rotation spot with his last start, a smoke-and-mirrors shutout in beating the Cards.  Every single Cardinals runner was stranded against Kendrick in that game (Kendrick's usual strand rate is below 70%).  This is a Triple-A pitcher throwing in the Bigs. 

The Rockies send out Greg Smith, who's starting this game only because of injuries to much better pitchers (like De La Rosa).

Gentleman, start your bats:  Way OVER the total of 11 and Rockies to win.

Braves @ Brewers:  In sharp contrast to the later (COL-PHI) contest, we'll see a pair of Major League pitchers here, one being among the Top 10 in all of baseball.  Tommy Hanson comes off a horrible (for him) start, where he simply clearly didn't have his pitches.  It happens.  Which pitches?  Pick your poison: Hanson can come at batters equally well with a 92-94 MPH fastball, a slider, a curve, and a changeup.  He's especially tough against righties.  The Brew Crew leads the NL in OPS and runs scored, but when push comes to shove, it's historically and generally pitching that wins.

Milwaukee sends out Doug Davis, who's much better than his surface stats--especially that horrid ERA--would indicate.  But because of an unusually high hit and strand pct, he looks awfully bad on paper.  Atlanta batters, meanwhile, have an NL-worst .592 OPS vs lefties, with just 4 homers in 301 AB.  Moreover, they'll likely be missing Jason Heyward until Tuesday (lineups have not yet been posted as of this writing).  Davis doesn't figure to go beyond 5 IP, though.

I like UNDER the 8.5 total here.  If I had to pick a side, it'd be Atlanta.

Looking at the total of 8, it seems a tad high even for a day game at McAfee for RH flies don't.  Doug Fister is a mediocre pitcher who's in the Mariner rotation only because of injuries to Lee and Bedard (who, along with Harden now of the Rangers), is the DL poster-boy.  But Oakland's lineup isn't  exactly Murderer's Row.  Seattle has superior batting, but today they face Oakland's best pitcher (ok, so that's arguable).

Brett Anderson just turned 22; he's had only one season of ML experience, and he posted a pedestrian 4.02 ERA last year.  But look at his development in 2009; it's truly a tale of two halves.  First Half line: 74 IP, 5.47 ERA, 6.3 K/9, 1.6 HR/9,  and he was just plain wild.  Second Half line: 101 IP, 3.02 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, and an elite cmd of 4.0+ (meaning he didn't walk even half as many batters as he did in Half 1).

That's called growth, folks--very positive growth.  And it's fully backed by the skills he demonstrated in the minors.  This is a pitcher who, if he stays healthy, will be an ace shortly and for years to come.

The A's will no doubt take it easy with this young arm, so assume he's on a fairly restricted PC.  And that, along with this being his first start, makes playing the total--or the side, for that matter--an iffy proposition.  But that's true of any game, ain't it?

Just a tad on UNDER the 8 total.

Oakland's Brett Anderson's expected ERA (XERA) is 3.87 over the past month while his ERA is over 5.  As baseball statisticians will tell you, such a gap almost invariably indicates just plain bad luck, rather than a lack of skills.  Checking the key parameters, sure enough: Anderson has an inflated 33% hit rate against and an underwhelming strand rate of just 68% during the period.

Seattle's Rowland-Smith, on the other hand, has had luck on his side.  Yep, he's fortunate to have "just" an ERA of 4.50 over the past month. (Since Rowland-Smith's total IP to date are but 40.3, and his IP over the past month total 38, the second fi8gure will do, particularly since a pitcher's performance over the latest several starts are more significant than what he did in, say, the first month of the season).

In fact, the pitching match-up isn't even close here: Anderson dominates.  Of course, the flip side is the offense, and the A's bats are no match for those of the Mariners.

Here I'm going with pitching over hitting in a roundabout way.

Oakland +110 (which was the line at the time I marked it here this morning--see my pending picks)  Again, just MHO.

As always, I don't post records, which are meaningless in baseball betting (in sharp contest to football or hoops).

And as always, the best of luck to you!

I've said this more than once this year, and I'll say it again: Javier Vazquez is among the most underestimated players in the game.  It doesn't help that he underperformed during his stint with the Sox, as he and Ozzie apparently didn't get along very well, but that's besides the point here.  Some surface stats: During the last two months, Vazquez has given up more than 3 runs in a game just once.  During roughly the same period, he has walked more than two batters in a game just once and has struck out an average of a batter per inning.

And this has been the result of pure skill, as the underlying stats demonstrate: His hit rate against is 30%; his strand rate is 75%--both well within the norm. 

The Phillies trot out J.A. Happ who has been very, very good since joining the rotation on May 23.  He's not as good as his 2.75 ERA suggests, having enjoyed a favorable hit rate of just 26% and a strand rate of over 80%, which suggests he's due for some regression, but again: He has flashed solid skills.

The Phillies are the best road team in the Bigs, and they're always tough anyway with whatever lineup they start, but I'll take good pitching over good hitting any day of the week.  And don't forget: Brad Lidge inexplicably remains the Phils' closer.  That's another plus for Atlanta--or any opposing team.

I took Atlanta at -120.

Should be a great game to watch.

As usual, just MHO and my record is in my profile.

Best of luck to all, whichever side you play.

Not much of an analysis here.  Bottom line: Angels are sending a minor league pitcher against major league hitters, even if they are the Orioles.

I never thought I'd ever say this in 2009: I'll take Baltimore.

Again, just MHO.

The Brewers have been hitting the ball hard and often as of late, yet I'm taking the visiting Astros today at just (currently( even money. The main reason is Oswalt.  While he did give up a whopping 6 ER to the Marlins in his last start, that appears to have been an aberration, as his hit (45%) and strand (55%) rates indicate.  Prior to that disastrous start, Oswalt had begun to put it together, correcting a mechanical flaw back in June, this according to the Houston Chronicle, which reported in mid-July that Oswalt had corrected a strid eand release flaw  His subsequent starts (an ERA of just 2.20 over his next six starts) apparently bore the report out.

For his part, Braden Looper, following a strong April, has turned into a pumpkin, albeit one with 10 wins (can you say Run Support?)

That Bekrman is back in the Houston lineup doesn't hurt, especially with one of the most consistent power producers in all of baseball  batting just behind him.

So, Houston to win today IMHO. 

Best of luck!

Game's into the top of the second as I write this, but my thinking in choosing what I did is pretty simple:

Both teams have been struggling on offense.  Happ and especially Harden (since the AS break) aren't the sort of pitchers to break out of slumps against.  Add to that a very cool night in Wrigley with the wind blowing in, and I see a lkow-scoring game on both sides.

Cubs?  Because they're trotting out the better pitcher.

FWIW.  Good game to watch, at any rate.

Happ pitching well.  Harden one of the toughest pitchers in the Bigs when's on.

Half the chip on the Cubbies side and the other half on UNDER the 7.5.

As usual, just MHO.

Best of luck to all.

If there's an unluckier pitcher in all of baseball than James Shields, it must be someone tucked away somewhere in the minors.

To find the last time Shields got a win, you'd have to flip the calendar back to June  20 when he went 7 and gave up a single run at the Mets.  In his last start, he had a no-hitter through 7, winded up surrendering just one run and yep, you guessed it, he got straddled with the loss.

Granted, he hasn't fulfilled the promise this year of the dominant ace, but make no mistake: This is a pitcher with a sharp skill set.
He has, for example, had just one disastrous  outing this season (a "disaster" for a pitcher I define here as giving up as many--or more--earned runs as innings pitched).

The one caveat with Shields is that he's very uncharacteristically walked 7 batters over his last two outings.  His control has otherwise been pinpoint all year.

Tonight his counterpart is the newly-acquired (Pirates) and once-promising Ian Snell.  No bad luck here: Unlike  Shields, his hit and strand percentages are well within the norm.  His problems are of his own making: He's been plagued with a high BB ratio the past two seasons.

So no side on the game for me.  But I will take the UNDER the 8 tonight.

Whatever you play, best of luck to you.

(By the way, I don't post W-L records or do follow-ups of any posting--unless specifically asked.  My --or anyone else's, for that matter--W-L record is a matter of (database) record, thanks to the good folks who run this site.  Besides, W-L records in baseball, where the ML is the norm, are by themselves meaningless, in contrast to, say, the NFL.  ,,,But most of y'all already know that.)

Gorzelanny enjoyed a pretty good first full season in 07, although he was buoyed with some pretty good luck that year (3.88 ERA vs a 4.96 XERA),  Last year was just plain disastrous, although he pitched well in AAA in the second half.  His failings in the past: Lack of control, mostly.  The Pirate organization apparently wasn't exactly sad to see him go, as there apparently private remarks about his commitment to the team and the game.  In sum, he's a mediocre pitcher at best right now.

No opinion on the game, just a FYI.

I'm not taking this as two plays; rather, half of what I usually risk on a game on the UNDER the 7 (both teams) and the other half on UNDER the Padres total of 3.

While O/U the 7 is about even money, this appears to be a good play on the UNDER.  The total for the Padres is currently about even on the 3 O/U, and UNDER the 3 appears to be a good play.  Assuming I have the time in the PM, will do a brief write-up about why.

As usual,  this is just IMHO.

Fair enough, MustRisk: Anderson has pitched twice against the Rangers (both at Arlington): On 4/28 he went 5, giving up just s single ER, but when he faced them again on 5/30, the Rangers racked him up for 6 runs in just 4 IP.

Well, it's about gametime.  Best of luck!

It is indeed a YSU avatar, Jim!

among other things, that should read " complete game shut.out at home" (vs LAA)

I have no idea what a CG shout is.

And sorry about the typos ;)

From the What-Have-You-Done-For-Me-Lately (and FWIW) dept:

Many casual fans--and even some bettors--I imagine will look at the ERAs of the two opposing pitchers as a key starting point in assessing tonight's game.  But they were to look beyond the surface stats, they'd note that Brett Anderson is not the same pitcher he was weeks ago.  For one thing, his Ks have markedly increased while his BBs have diminished (although he can still stand improvement there).  His 4.33 ERA is misleading: His expected ERA (XERA) is well under 4.

Look carefully at his last five starts:  In his most recent outing, he went 6 and was scored on 3 times.  Pretty averaage, until you also see he K'd 8 batters and allowed just 4 hits.  His undoing?  Yep, walks.  That game was at Boston, by the way, not exactly batting slouches.  The start before that, he went 6.2 innings, K'd 7, but gave up 4 runs, although he walked just two.  That as at the Yankees.  Start before that, a complete game shout at homw against the Angels.  Last full game before that was a complete game shut-out of the BoSox--at Boston. 

What's also interesting to note is his flyball to grounder ration in those games: He's been keeping the ball on the ground to the tune of almost 2-1.  Before July, he was giving up a homer nearly every 6 IP; that's now down to 1 per 9.

This kid is just 21, and he'll have thew growing pains any rookie pitcher does. 

But given his recent performances against very formidable foes, I'm taking the bit of chalk on Oakland against the Rangers tonight (yes, I know the Texas offense is "due."), as well as under the 8.5 (well, it was 8.5 when I made the selection--see plays, as usual, in my profile).

Again, just my humble opinion.  YMMV and all that.  Good luck to all.

While looking over today's schedule, I passively noted "Cubs win" on this one, probably because they have the better pitcher today and they lost yesterday, scoring but two runs although they hit several balls hard.  So at the price, I figured "pass," as the Marlins have been playing well, too.

Then I returned to the game, noting Zambrano's surprisingly still- low (I thought) ERA.  I did some number-crunching, and--sure enough--Zambrano has been more lucky than he has been good.  His expected ERA (baseball statisticians refer to this as the xERA) is a full run over his actual ERA, in part because the hit rate is (overly) low against him, even as his Ks are down, and in part because he's stranded far more runners than his skill set would otherwise allow.

In other words, Zambrano is due for some correction.  Granted, this doesn't happen in a single game, of course; but in his last outing he had a 100% strand rate, which included getting away with 4 BB in 7IP.  Add that to the fact that the Marlins, while they whiff a lot, have been hitting well (though not overly so)--and the price.  That seals the deal for me on this particular game.

I'll take the Marlins in Landshark Stadium for that kind of change.