sweem

Hey mate, hope all is well? I was surprised to see Croatia at around 1.55 against such a newly composed team like Kosovo, I was expecting around 1.35 to be honest. Regarding Ireland, goals is my strongest feeling there - while I have to also mention, that the straight up draw at around 5.00 feels very tempting.

Hi all

Tomorrow there is some World Cup qualifiers, and here are the ones I have been targeting since the odds were released. Let's hear your thoughts and feel free to discuss

Ireland - Georgia: Pick: Both teams to score @ 2.70 (2/10)

Aviva Stadium in Dublin, the place of the boys in green - it's always hostile but in the friendlier way. Ireland had a good Euro session and also opened the World Cup qualifiers with a rather impressive 2-2 tie against Serbia away. They are back to host Georgia, a country many people confuse with the state in the U.S - but this nation is very promising and have been for a few generations, especially in the under 19/20/21's and the national team is starting to benefit from that now, after many patient years. This resulted in a very unfortunate home loss against Austria, despite playing lights out (as in - pretty fantastic). Georgia in fact managed to beat Spain in a friendly prior to the loss against Austria, but without focusing on the results, they are no push overs and actually are more technicall gifted than the Irish, although less experienced. Vladimir Weiss is the coach, the Slovak is experienced and have done good with this group. Ireland have openly admitted that this game is somewhat of a "trap" for the public, and warn their own fans that this Georgian side has improved, and this is dangerous. I do not expect Ireland to win the possession in fact, but they are heavy and can benefit from a physical game plan. I expect goals in both nets - Georgia will likely concede due to their disorganization, while Ireland can be caught by surprise of how technically gifted and offensive this side is. They will not sit back and just "participate" - I will watch this game closely

Turkey - Ukraine: Pick: Turkey @ 2.30 (2/10)

Hostile envionment in Turkey, as they are coming off a great 1-1 tie in Croatia, in a very tough away game, perhaps the toughest in Europe (among). Ukraine on the other hand, could not beat Iceland on their home soil, and they are a significantly more careful road side. We would see glimpses of this being displayed in their Euro performances, where they lost all three group matches. If we only focus on the player material, it's fairly even, but the Turks benefiting from a home crowd, with optimism after a great result, they need to take advantage of these type of games against their direct competitors, like Ukraine. Very generous odds in my opinion, as Ukraine are not the same on the road.

Kosovo - Croatia: Pick: Croatia -1 AH @ 1.96 (4/10)

Sure, Kosovo are better than people imagine, but they drew Finland on the road, and are now up against one of the best teams in Europe, perhaps the most talented if we look at the potential. What makes this bet even more appealing, is the fact that Croatia are coming off a miscount when they only managed 1-1 at home against Turkey, and therefore, would really benefit from 3 points here, against a side who are just about to debut on home soil themselves in this type of context. Kosovo have a solid team, but compared to Croatia lack years of experience, chemistry, and not least, quality - moreover, Croatia have tons of pressure to win this game, so no mercy from the Croats. Kosovo will steal and surprise many sides, but Croatia belongs to the upper tier of teams, and Kosovo are not there yet. I can see Croatia solving 2-3 goals themselves here if they want to be somewhat effective, while Kosovo should celebrate if they get to touch the ball more than 35% of the game.

Good luck all!

I personally have locked the bet on the Preds to win the cup. What's your call on it? Money in the ocean or reasonable at the price of +2000?

Great stuff guys, glad to have the first one in.

Neither side in Shkendija or Gent have managed to impress in the first half. Hopefully more open and offensive in the second

Awesome, feeling good about that one after seeing the first leg. I've never seen a Swedish team be so brutally outplayed in a very long time. I am gutted I did not caught the opening price at 1.70 for the straight home win, which has now dropped to 1.45

You got a good price there!

Feeling a bit bad to go against my countrymen but betting should never be done with heart, just being honest and realistic

Confident on that Peru over Franz? Make it rain mate

@Compo

Eyes on the Europa League, which is an absolutely massive menu, but let's be selective with the play since money management is important, so I prefer to carefully select two matches to focus on

Qarabag - Goteborg
The Swedes have a 1-0 lead to defend on the road which came very fortunate to be honest, with their only real shot on target, among 4 shots in total. Qarabag had nearly 70% possession on the road and recorded 17 attempts but effectiveness costed them the vcitory. The same match picture is expected in Azerbaijan, and the Swedes will face an incredibly strong home team in humid weather conditions and 26 celcius during the evening, which is about more than a Swedish regular summer day. Weather aside, the Azeri's are superior individually, creativity, technique-wise and all factors except the physicality which goes to Goteborg. Keep in mind, Tottenham were the last team to defeat Qarabag at home, that was almost one year ago. Goteborg have a weak away record this season (3-3-4) and I doubt they can cope with chasing the ball in the weather conditions against a skillful and desperate home team

• Bets:  Qarabag -1 AH @ 1.85 (5/10)

Shkendija - Gent
It was a thriller in Belgium when Gent got a late winner to make it 2-1, but the Macedonians still have the chance after scoring the oh so important away goal. Gent were not impressive to be honest, and the difference was expected to be a lot bigger considering the team value and the quality of respective league. Shkendija is a fairly "new" top team in Macedonia after being dominated by Vardar and Rabotnicki in recent years, but the very ambitious investments by the club have gathered many players from abroad with experience from the bigger leagues and currently stand on the verge of completing Macedonian football history by qualifying for Europa League group stages. Only one goal is needed, and Tetovo is warm and humid place for Belgian standards, and also hostile for visitors. I smell an underdog upset, as Shkendija were not out of the game by any means over in Belgium. They have also an incredibly strong home record to lean on where they have not lost in over one year (!) - Gent are in for a way tougher task than bookies predict, they focus too much on "Belgium versus Macedonia" in terms of league quality, clear underestimation in my opinion and I will take my chances for the friendly odds..

• Bets: Shkendija +0.5 @ 1.88 (3/10) and Shkendija PK @ 2.85 (1/10)

Morning lads, and thanks for the warm welcome! good to see majority of the familiar faces are still around, makes it even more fun to be back

Let's have a good one today

Hi all

Some might remember me from earlier, most recognized for the "crazy Malmo backer" during last season perhaps (it was a beautiful journey though). It has been a while but feeling like starting up a thread again, seeing a few familiar faces around still - which is great

I am posting early (a day early) to have this recorded and also allow time to discuss the games if anyone is up for questions or general footy talk. Here we go!

Swansea - Hull City: Pick - Swansea @ 1.83 (4/10)

Despite Hull pulling the biggest upset in round one, Swansea are a comfortable home side and are also coming boosted from their victory against a pumped newcomer in Burnley. Coach Guidolin's side plays the usual possession oriented football and despite losing Ayew, there is a lot of pace in the team in Routhledge, Montero, Dyer and Barrow if needed. Kyle Naughton and Jack Cork had the most passes in Swansea in the opening round and clearly they tend to build their attack on the right side to utilize their pacy wings. Hull were playing with a lot of spirit in front of the home crowd and pulled of a victory. This will be harder to come by against a better passing team than Leicester, on the road as well. Swansea impressed and I expect them to score twice at least which would be enough to secure a victory you would think

Burnley - Liverpool: Pick - Burnley +1 AH @ 1.90 (2/10)

I totally get it, I look foolish here -  And yes, the reds played great against Arsenal and the price dropped heavily on this game because of that performance (1.91 -> 1.50) for the straight Pool win. It has lost all it's value and suddenly the value has turned to Burnley. Liverpool is a public bet screamer here and if life was that easy, I would blindly have a go at the straight Pool win too but oh how many times have "easy" picks gone wrong - I sense the public will have a nail biter and Burnley can put up a fight. "Minor" teams are always motivated to make life difficult for a favorite, take the home factor into account and this pick suddenly feels likely in my opinion. All value on Burnley and Liverpool has zero value in their odds at the moment. At most a narrow Pool victory, which the handicap would cover in that case for safety

Angelholms - Trelleborg: Pick: Trelleborg @ 2.10 (2/10)

The promotion dream is still alive for Trelleborg as they enter their best run of the season so far. Angelholm have been the most turbulent club in Sweden due to bankrupcy threats and several players have agreed on receiving less salary and moreover, delayed salaries. The whole board of management look to shortly be revamped and the question is whether the club can save themselves from having to shut down completely. Currently they consist of eleven warriors on the field which is admirable but have nothing special to play for any more. The relegation is nearly set in stone with seven points until safe ground. Angelholm have the worst offensive numbers and also the worst defensive numbers. Trelleborg have one of the best defenses and this is a southern derby as well - Trelleborg being the more ambitious side and coming off a goal galore when they scored 5 goals last time. Confidence feels high and the price for an away win feels overpriced. I had them priced at 1.80 myself so I will sprinkle a few coins on the generous price

Gl all!

Bad pitch conditions today, it's been snowing heavily in Malmo but they have managed to clear most of the mess. My first thought was to play the under, however knowing Zlatan Ibrahimovic mind, he is probably wanting to create a show, and that means the over/under play is a bit risky

I do like Malmo at home, as always - they seem to always be motivated at home and gain results. Shakthar had a difficult time here, and Real Madrid were in trouble for a while, but individual skill carried them to three points. PSG is of similar quality as Real Madrid, so I have something like this in mind -->

I believe Malmo can do an inspiring 45 minutes, perhaps 55-65 minutes, but PSG will eventually score. Malmö's season is over, which means they have not played a competitive game for a long time in between the champions league. My play will be draw in half time and PSG to win, and also a little bit on the "under 3 goals"

Plays
HT/FT  X/2 @ 4.50
Under 3 goals @ 1.85

Funny bet
Rosenberg to score @ 5.80 (just in case we get a penalty or perhaps a greasy goal)

Wheeeeaty! Well played buddy! Pissed at that penalty shot too, quite awful, don't know why Rosenberg did not got to take it, he is the man of big games

Anyway, you hit some nice underdog odds there for a good profit

We sure did mate

Glad to hit this once again - I would do the same even if it was versus Barcelona to be honest. This team can produce magic when it's needed. Should have been 2-0 or 3-0 to be honest. 6 shots on goal compared to Shakthars 1 shot on goal for 90 minutes

In a weird way I am quite disappointed at the 1-0 scoreline while I should be celebrating like a freak, this is becoming the standard bet on the forums - to always back Malmo at home, with a handicap or not, lean the home side in these :) It seems to pay off

Well played Jules!

Obviously I like your Malmo bets Weathy! Let's roll with them, as usual on Champions League home games ^^

Blues haven't started off that bad either btw!

Hey mate

I am also on the double chance at 2.00 and regarding the team goals, I believe we can score twice, but I do not dare to push my luck, but surely two goals should be possible against a Shakthar team that have conceded 7 goals in 2 games, while Malmo have conceded 4 against the same opponents

It's a tough line, but being listed as home dogs is gold enough for me. Expecting Rosenberg to be the man of the big games again, decent.

More info in Jules thread :)

Hey!

I have sprinkled some units myself of course on various plays here. While every team in Champions League is better than Malmö on paper (this was the same case last year) but we still witnessed some darn good games particularly at home, where Malmö showed that they are no push overs. Every team in the tournament have more experience than Malmö, as this is only the second time in club history where they participate in the CL. The same cards were played when Olympiakos came to Sweden last season and majority thought "Well Olympiakos have way more experience and their squad is worth x5 their opponents" well yes, but they still lost 2-0. I personally have learned not to read into squad values or experience, especially not on away games because the hosts tend to be quite energetic. If people are not familiar with the Malmo Stadium, I suggest a youtube session to see what this boiling cauldron is during European games and see how it has shaken teams up.

The Malmo players have said since this group was drawn "our win will come at home versus Shakthar" and they fully believe that they can shake this team. Yes, the swedes are cocky and optimistic, but when only Real Madrid, Juventus and Atletico Madrid have beaten them in Sweden, I see no reason why they should not be confident about getting a result.

Shakthar are very good, skillfull and offensive minded - Salzburg warning on them, since they tend to leave their defense suffering. Their second best player, winger Taison is injured and did not travel with the team. Malmo are speaking about Shakthar conceding 7 goals, and scoring none, they are noticably vulnerable. The Swedes did bad domestically this year due to having 8 new players this season, and the management have now said "we are gonna take that 3rd place in the group" in order to get in Europa League - the players, coaches, city are talking about it. I like their chances to get a result

Plays:
Malmo +0.5 AH (same as 1X double chance) @ 2.00 (3/10)
Rosenberg to score @ 3.75 (1/10)

Friday 16/10 - I will remain with one play tonight as it really stands out in my opinion

Winnipeg - Calgary

It is hard to deny that the Jets have impressed this far and seem to be rolling as a team as well with 11 different scorers so far. The question is how they handle the home debut after a tough road trip against some pretty physical teams such as Boston, NY Rangers and NJ Devils. The one loss - against a quick NY Islanders team kind of revealed the weakness of Winnipeg having trouble with "straight forward" kind of teams like Isles who wastes no time in the offensive zone. Calgary have not impressed massively but a road game might make the guys pull this together, and I really like to go against teams who are coming home from a long road trip with some traveling distance as well. The Flames tend to play well in Winnipeg and I think they catch the Jets in a good spot here, and the underdog price is taken without blinking despite a buzzing MTS Centre.

Pick: Calgary Flames @ 2.35 (1/10)

Good luck everyone!

Thanks guys, not a bad night but Rangers did not really show up tonight.

2-1-0 (+1.75)

Liking them both, was close to pull the trigger on Nashville as well but they have not really been tested yet, so I rather see what they do versus Isles. On a side note, I have played Preds as SC winners this season

Rangers as dogs when the public seem to love Montreal (understandably considering their start), but that is the kind of spot I like.

Best of luck