TKWSNx93

SU: 7-15-0 (-3.05, 31.8%) Teaser Records

ATS: 2-19-1 (-7.23, 9.5%)   avg line: -4.2 +6:  9-13-0 (40.9%)  -6:  2-20-0 (9.1%)  +10:  13-9-0 (59.1%)  -10:  2-20-0 (9.1%)  

O/U:9-13-0 (-2.70, 40.9%)

When a team lost 10+ games the previous season, and they are a home favorite in the playoffs, this is the result:

They are 8-3 under Tannehill and look like a completely different team. 9-7 does not represent how good they really are now

Trends like these are stupid because they're completely random. Yes it's no question some people come on here with garbage like "teams are 11-0 in 30 years when they play on Sundays with 3 days rest on a 2 game win streak when they go to bed at 8pm". That is nonsense and easy to come up with random parameters.

Denying logical trends that consistently win year after year with decent sample sizes is just being bitter for no reason

If it wins and works for someone, then why piss in their soup? There are plenty of trends that are logical and win consistently year after year. Calling it "lazy" and "rudimentary" without listing explicit examples is just as lazy and rudimentary 

Bold to pick two touchdown favorites on Divisional weekend. These almost never cover, let alone 2 in the same weekend. If you were able to get the 6.5 in for the Niners though that's a little more reasonable.

BOL

You aren't comprehending my sentence properly. Reread what I wrote:

"Since 2003 a team on a winstreak of 9 or more in the playoffs is 3-16 ATS and 9-10 SU (including conf/SB)". This goes for ALL teams since 2003 that were on a 9+ game win streak going into the playoffs.

Situational capping can be ridiculous when random parameters are thrown in, but there are many logical situational plays that work well and have consistently won for years. This one for example makes perfect sense as there are many reasons why a streaking team will struggle to cover usually-large spreads in the NFL playoffs. 

Sorry for triple post, didn't know they block the site. It's killersports dot com

https://killersports.com/

Query is: streak>8 and playoffs=1

You can also manually fact check this if you have time

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=streak%3E8+and+playoffs%3D1&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

Since 2003 a team on a winstreak of 9 or more in the playoffs is 3-16 ATS and 9-10 SU (including conf/SB). 0-10 ATS when the spread is greater than -4

The public loves bloating the spreads of NFL Playoff favorites

Interesting, I dug a little deeper and since 2003 a team on a winstreak of 9 or more in the playoffs is 3-16 ATS and 9-10 SU (including conf/SB)

Woulda coulda shoulda... A loss is a loss. You're not giving the Titans enough credit

The Titans have been a completely different team since benching Mariota, averaging nearly 30 points per game. It's also worth mentioning that since 2012, when teams beat the Pats in Foxboro, they are 8-1 straight-up the following week...with the one loss being 2012 49ers when Justin Smith got hurt in the Pats game which ruined their defense.

Another interesting trend: teams that win on the road in the wildcard round are often 6-9.5 point underdogs when they subsequently play a 1 or 2 seed in the divisional round. I'm not sure how this keeps happening year after year but these are always close, low scoring games. 

Since 2005 when this happens they are 4-8 SU, 10-2 ATS, and 2-10 OU with an average score of 18-22. Both the Vikings and Titans fall under these situational plays.

I can easily see one of the 6-Seeds winning outright this weekend, with both covering their big spreads. 

Thoughts?

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=HF+and+playoffs+%3D+0+and+p%3AW+and+tS%28W%29+-+%28tS%28W%29+%2F+1.3%29+%3C+oS%28W%29+and+p%3ATPM+*+3+%2F+p%3Apoints+%2B+p%3Apoints+in+the+paint+%2F+p%3Apoints+%3E+.76+and+conference+%3D+Western+and+op%3Amargin+%3E+-3+and+rest+%3C+3+and+date%3E20170326+and+rest%3C2+and+team&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

I also want to add that CLE -1.5 is not part of my system..I am just riding their road winning streak for now after starting the season abysmal on the road

Red hot this week using a profitable system I have been refining for a few years now that takes PACE, Offensive and Defensive Efficiency into account with several situational plays. Past 3 days since deciding to join some pools and contests have been hitting at an astounding 21-3-1 87.5%

Proof: https://contests.covers.com/OfficePools/Contestant/CompletedPicks/fa440e42-72d9-464c-a509-a89b012bdb0c

43-14-2 +28.72 Units for the week 

Feel free to tail, but maybe fade since I am possibly jinxing it with this post. 

Picks today:

ATL +8.5

CHI +7.5, o215

HOU -3

WAS -3, u219

UTAH -9.5, u198

NYK +9.5

ORL +3, u205.5

POR -1, u218

CLE -1.5

BOL