VideoGamerAlby

@Nikos_Greekos

 My model doesn't know about that. Thats usually where i do a write up and investigate why the model is telling me the scores i see. Look back at  my old NBA posts to get an idea.

Hey guys i'm back, haven't done this in a while.. No write up today just testing the model for the 2021 season.

Margin 5.4

117-110 Portland Win

118-112 Portland Win

123-115 Portland Win

These are the instances, I haven't done this in soo long bare with me, once i get the hang of this Covid season.

This crushed me. Even though i've never spoke with him and usually on the NBA side, but i always read his posts when it came to NHL. I'm sad now R.I.P. brother, thanks for every ounce of help and effort you used to help us out.

Here are some margins to help for your betting.

Creighton Vs Seton Hall  (Creighton to win by 6 or more)

Gerogia Vs South Carolina ( Georgia to win by 6 or more) (This one i also took a couple hours to watch both teams last 3 games and studied their video)

Mississippi Vs Arkansas (Arkansas to win by 6 or more)

Saint John Vs DePaul (Neither wins by more than 5)

Boise St Vs Colorado St (Neither wins by more than 5)

The model predicts Portland wins by a 3.6 margin

Conference Total Trailblazers 117-113
Raw Calculated Total Trailblazers 121-118

First of all i want to figure out how Damian Lillard comes into play here.

Dame Train or Portland Train. If we look at Dame, he's averaging 29.8 Points a game and 37.1 Minutes a game. If we look closely, his explosive scoring that we've been seeing lately started back in January 20 against the GSW where he scored 61 Points. The games following..
47 points vs Mavericks, 50 points vs Pacers, 36 points vs Rockets, 48 points vs Lakers, 51 Points vs Jazz 

Before the 61 Point GSW game he averaged around 26.6/Game. So we're witnessing a player going above his average performance all season long and has maintained it for 6 games in a row. So from above we can see They've won 5 of their last 6 games, with a loss coming from the Mavericks. I also want to look at his teammates to determine whether this is ball hogging or carrying. Surprisingly it was actually a balanced output of points. CJ, Trevor & Hassan weren't too behind in those games in terms of points. CJ and Trevor individually added 20-26 average Points on top of Dame's, & Hassan performing the way he should. Damian is neither carrying or disallowing points from teammates, which strongly indicates its the Portland Train, not the Dame Train. We can't takeaway credit from Damian, He's just being himself.

To begin both teams have lost 4 games in their last 11. Portlands 2/4 losses were dealt by Dallas Mavericks. Both teams faced playoff contenders in their last 11 and won against .500-.600 teams. Denver has won 2 of its last 3 home games, by 6 & 7. They lost to the pacers by 8. Trailblazers have won 1 of their last 3 away games, by 8 & 13. They beat the Lakers by 8. Both teams last 11 games and previous home/away outings didn't reveal much information in terms of bias and performance. The Trailblazers are on a 4 game winning streaking going into Nuggets territory. Denver won 2 previous bouts. Oct 23 Nuggets 108-100 & Dec 12, Nuggets 114-99

When i ran instances of their last 11 games, Portland had a higher PF% FieldGoal% 3PT% and FT% than the Denver Nuggets. Its becoming clear this game will not be a walk in the park for Denver, and they may potentially lose or get blown out. Both teams schedule and recent opponents were so balanced i decided to look at this game from one more angle. I removed the last 4 games of both team and wanted to see what the model would come up with. I did this because the trailblazers are on a 4 game win streak, winning 5 of their last 6. We've already concluded its not exactly the Dame Train, rather the Portland Train. When removing the last 4 games of both teams, Portland Trailblazers win by a margin of 4.5...Hmm i wonder where that number came from 

"Have the Odds adjusted to Portland?" Absolutely not, and i believe this is where the decision comes down to. I believe the linesmaker know this will be a tight game, but give the edge to Denver since they have a better record and are at home.

Both teams have had equally balanced last 11 games in terms of schedule and opponents. Trailblazers are coming in with a 4 game win streak. Home/Away didn't, and doesn't even come near to be a factor of gameplay when both teams face each other tonight. Portland averaged 10% better stats in all factors of scoring than the Nuggets for the past 20 games. With this i can see why my model predicts a 3.6 win margin for the Trailblazers.

The model predicts Clippers win 1.6-5.9 Margin /

Clippers 121 - Raptors 117

My first model output the 2019-2020 season on NBA forum. Last year showed good results and I'm hoping my analysis helps you out and kind of see my thought process on interpreting the models data. I've been reluctant to post due to the season getting started and collecting data.

What surprised me about the close margin(121-117) is that the model doesn't take into account the "Human Factor".
So looking at both teams, their last two games were B2B giving them a one day rest before meeting today, let alone if that data can even be relied on. So i took this into account before i began analyzing both teams here on forward. I also want to figure out

In their previous meeting the clippers won by a 10 point margin. The model predicts the same outcome but with a smaller margin. The clippers have won 11 of their last 13 games, the Raptors have only won 9 of 13. Two of those 9 wins came from defeating Orlando, Other than beating 76ers the rest came from mediocore/under-porforming teams. I liked the 13 game range because it really pinpointed the performance of both teams giving their schedule this season. The clippers Have been dominant this season let alone their last 13 game stretch. The Raptors "revenge" isn't looking probable giving their stats. Across the board their stats are 10% lower than the clippers in 3 points to field goals etc..

I would back the clippers in this position, but I would also be unsure of the spread.

Still waiting for every team to play at least 10 games before i post regularly, today is probably one of the hardest days to bet NHL so I thought I'd use the model, even though the data is impartial. Although it did perform well last night. Good Luck.

Sabres 5
Ducks 3

Stars 0
BlueJackets 3

Flyers 3
Oilers 1

Avalanche 2
Penguins 5

Hurricanes 2
Sharks 4

Maple Leafs 4
Capitals 1

Thanks Peel. I'll bookmark your profile. When i'm done I'll dm you a link to what i create.

Hey I'm also create models. I have an NHL and NBA one, but Baseball i've been trying to wrap my head around. I don't need all your formulas but just a couple inputs from the model, and from there i can add 1 and 2 together. If i were to take a guess I would say the process starts off with correlating Home runs (totals) to pitchers WHIP/ RUN Support. I knew this day would come where i had to make an MLB model. If you can help me by naming 2-3 of your inputs in your model I don't need the formulas just sort of the mindset, it would give me an idea on how to start my own model which i would gladly send you.

Thanks.

Marginal Hit! If Wizards were on the road Minnesota would've won this game straight up i presume. All in all I'm glad to be back in the NBA Forums side.

I Truly apologize i thought i clicked the submit Captcha button. I wrote this 3 hours ago..

The model predicts Wizards win 2.5-7.1 Margin

Washington Wizards (-2.5)

This may seem like a fairly easy match up, but the score differential tells me otherwise. Especially after modeling the timberwolves past 3 games they truly are doing something remarkable & unique.. Likewise the New York Knicks & Orlando Magics. Back to this game though, I want to clarify the Wizards will actually win this game due to the volatility of the Timberwolves lately. We know the Wizards are a good home team, so i want to atack this game from that angle. I also want to know if the probablility of them winning matches their performance & makes sense with the 2.5 margin the model gives them.

To begin I noticed this is the first match up between these two teams this season. Both teams last 10-20 games was that it was quite similar Strenght of Schedule and both display averagely equal performance. Even though the wizards have won 3 of their last 11 games When i looked closely at their schedule it was a bit peculiar, but became clear.

To start off they've finished 4 series in their last 20 games. 3 of those 4 series had 2 games within the range of the Wizards last 20 games. Which could explain their 3-11 recent record. The losses we're seeing from the wizards are regressed losses or wins in their match ups.  We're seeing almost playoff Win-Loss ratios. They're about to face the Minnesota Timberwolves whom they'll meet 2 games after today or 6 days from now on saturday.

We can clearly see the wizards are going through a patch of intense clusters of series in the range of 20 games. They're beginning and ending series at a high rate which results in the amounts of losses we see from them lately due the fact teams are regressing and adjusting towards them. In betting terms teams are revenging them now that they beat before & They're beating teams they lost to before.

There wasn't much to tell me The Wizards are going to lose seeing as the Timberwolves have been coming close to winning games, sometimes even with large leads but just not holding on to them. Their last game Vs Indiana Pacers the model predicted 5.7 Win margin for Indiana and they ended up winning by 7. So i'm fairly confident after analyzing both teams and with the models margin of 2.5-7.1 the Wizards are a safe -2.5 Bet. Teams tend to score a notch more points than what the model predicts so I like that aspect.

In order to bet and win you require a tactical approach to attacking the games every day.  

There really is no system. Its all a collection of news, other bettors and bookmakers that create the lines. You're not rewarded for capping games, so the lack of incentive destroys the focus of winning, and you find yourself gambling or casually making picks or projecting rather than reacting to the lines. The best poker players can lose 20 to 100 games in a row, just because of variance. This is almost like hockey.

After collecting all the data from hundreds of games i've come to the conclusion the TrueW% dominates the xEG and AdjxEG inputs in my model. Hockey has high variance and randomness to measure expected goal with a short-range model, which i am using. This TrueW has blown my mind the past couple days. It measures performance of whats happening NOW based on both teams stats and outputs a percentage. The higher percentage is most likely the team that wins whether it results in OT. Below are the teams that displayed the higher TrueW %

Here are the model predicted winners for today. Teams with / OT means if they dont win straight up its usually in OT.

Sharks / OT
Flames / OT - xEG CGY 2 : NYI 2 [Measure of closeness]
Sabres
Senators /OT
Hurricanes
Canadiens
Predators
Wild
Blue Jackets
Panthers / OT
Golden Knights / OT

Hope This helps with your picks today.

Also I will never post the TrueW% on this website.
1. Its how i bring bread to the table. (Main source of income)
2. I will be censored from Covers.

WOOOOOOOOW I copy pasted Minnesota vs Pittsburgh, i was wondering why it was same score for both. I usually analyze the games after i get the stats from the model then come up with my own conclusion. I greatly apologize for such a mistake. But honestly I was destined to lose today regardless even after putting SJS i would've still lost.

imgur. com/a/BXFmTaa

The model clearly told me SJS had better stats overall but because of that 100% regression trend with Pittsburgh i really thought they could win. Didn't practice what i preached tonight and i lost big as a result of blindly following the model.

NYR game was way off the scale, but i just couldn't shake the feeling if i had gone deeper and analyzed both teams without the model i wouldn't have believed the models number because then their horrible GA% in a losing streak would be signaling their bound to win against a team like NYR rather than give up 4 goals..

With my model its whether to believe the Goals or the True Win %. The TrueW% has been 87% all season long, its so godlike but at the same time some days the Goals are more truthful. My only remedy is analyzing the games and coming up with my own judgement which i did not do tonight and lost hard on Pittsburgh.... Please be advised there were pure model outputs.

These are pure model outputs without my analysis. I'll give my short opinion not going in depth today. When i ran every NHL game today these were the 2 teams in which their numbers made sense with their performance, and it also matched their odds pricing today.

Minnesota Wild @ NewYork Rangers

xEG: Same for both Teams
AdjxEG:Same for both Teams

Condensed Final Output

Min 2.3
NYR 5.2

SanJose Sharks @ Pittsburgh Penguins

xEG: Same for both Teams
AdjxEG: Same for both Teams

Condensed Final Output

SJS 2.5
PIT 4.9

I'm betting hard on pittsburgh because in my model when their Mean Regression drops as the other teams rises, pitsburgh is 100% Winrate.

Dallas wins tonight

NSH 2.77  AdjxEG 3.69
DAL 4.71  AdjxEG 4.71

Condensed
NSH 3
DAL 3.9

Their raw "now" performance in my model is 121  & NSH is 113 in my model. Dallas wins.