World Cup 2014 Thread....

Updated after Italy / CR game...

Game Bets:

8.5-11 - 14.63 units up, 20.85 units down

Brazil / Croatia – Under 2.5 goals -115 (1.5 units) - LOSS

Mexico / Cameroon – Cameroon PK and +.5 -101 (1 unit) - LOSS

Spain / Netherlands – Spain to win -112 (2 units) - LOSS

Chile / Australia – Chile to win -215 (1 unit), Chile -1 -116 (1 unit) - WIN

Greece / Columbia – Greece +.5 +105 (1.5 units) - LOSS

Costa Rica / Uruguay – Under 2 and 2.5 -105 (1 unit) - LOSS

Italy / England – Italy PK -114 (1 unit) - WIN

Ivory Coast / Japan – Over 2 -125 (2 units) - WIN

Ecuador / Switzerland – Switzerland to win +155 (1.5 units) - WIN

France / Honduras - No bet

Argentina / Bosnia - over 2.5 -115 (1 unit) - WIN

Germany / Portugal - Under 2.5 -115 (1 unit) - LOSS

Iran / Nigeria - No Bet

Ghana / USA - over 2 and 2.5 +100 (1 unit) - WIN

Belgium / Algeria - Under 2.5 +100 (1 unit) - LOSS

Brazil / Mexico - Brazil -1.5 +100 (3 units) - LOSS

Russia / S Korea - Russia to win +125 (2 units) - LOSS

Australia / Netherlands - Australia +1.5 and +2 +100 (1 unit) - WIN

Spain / Chile - No Bet

Croatia / Cameroon - Croatia -160 (1.5 units) - WIN

Colombia / Ivory Coast - Ivory Coast PK and +.5 +107 (2 units) - LOSS
England / Uruguay - Uruguay PK and +.5 +103 (2 units) - WIN
Greece / Japan - Greece PK and +.5 +103 (1.5 units) - HALF WIN

Italy / Costa Rica - Italy -1 -110 (2 units) Italy to win -190 (1 unit) - LOSS
France / Switzerland - France to win -130 (1.5 units)
Ecuador / Honduras - Honduras +.5 and +1 +105 (1 unit)

Quote Originally Posted by ShootDaClubUp:

No handle on this world cup plain and simple 

You may very well have a point here.  Why not fade my picks?  May be a good strategy.

But to insinuate - like you did in your previous post - that I would some in here and say that I won on something I didn't post - has no basis in reality.  Show me where I have ever done that.

I make bets all the time that I don't post here.  Sometimes I win, sometimes I lose.  Sometimes I add on to my bets and lose, and sometimes I add on and win. 

I don't think you can find another poster here who keeps as honest of a record - and just try to find anyone who posts WORSE lines on a REGULAR basis than they actually get. 

So go ahead and fade me - you would be up money so far.  Or better yet - why don't you give some analysis as to why you like games or start your own thread with picks?  Then I could follow you - and we could all make money.

Great example of this just happened on France 3rd goal.

The 2 Swiss wingbacks (outside fullbacks) were both pushed up in attack.  Quick turnover leads to BOTH attacking flanks for France to be WIDE OPEN.

High risk, high reward.

Hope you bet the over.

Saturday June 21

Argentina / Iran - NO BET - This is really a tough one to read.  In their first game, Argentina came out surprisingly defensive - playing essentially 5 at the back for the first half.  It clearly wasn't working as there was not enough support up front for Aguerro and Messi - and Bosnia actually played better even though they were losing 1-0 on the own goal.  At HT - Argentina brought in Higuan - and it all changed back to normal.  So when analyzing their future - I will exclude this first half because I don't think we will se this tactic again.  My expectation - based on what I saw against Nigeria and the fact that they are playing Argentina - is that Iran will sit back and play 9 or even 10 behind the ball and pack back and defend.  They cant press.  They cant play a high line.  So this matchup comes down to a couple of very basic factors - can Argentina have the creativity to break down a packed in defense?

This is clearly something Japan was totally unable to do against Greece - and I expect similar from the opening whistle from Iran.  So for betting purposes - the time of the first goal and the shape of Iran after the first goal will decide the winner of the spread bet.  Will Iran continue to play defense while down 1-0?  You could make the argument that they will play for goal differential and hope to go in to the last game against Bosnia with a chance.  But if they break the defensive mold - and attack - it could get very ugly very fast.  Argentina has the offensive firepower to score as much as they want.  Predicted final score Argentina 2-0.

Ghana / Germany - Germany -1.5 -105 (2.5 units) - I really hate laying the goals - and with such a public team as Germany - but feel like this spot is a good one to do it.  Ghana has to be emotionally drained after the USA game - to fight back for 80 minutes only to have it snatched away.  Ghana clearly made some tactical errors at the beginning - like not starting Boateng - and there was much made about an apparent player revolt the following days against the coach and then an official "there was no revolt" statement by the Ghana FA.  I don't like how that smells.

Germany showed against Portugal just how dangerous they are.  They have really taken on a Spanish flair for me - playing without a true striker - and working quick passing in tight spaces.  They have the players to pull it off too.  And against Ghana - I just cant see the Ghana defense staying totally disciplined for 90 minutes - as we saw in the USA game - it only took 2 defensive lapses and it was all over.  Ghana looked totally inept at breaking down a packed back US defense - it seems as if the counter-attack in space is their only true danger - and the possession play of Germany should stifle that quite a bit.  If they cant get the ball - they cant counter - and frustration and rough play is probably the result.  Predicted final score Germany 4 Ghana 1

Bosnia / Nigeria - Under 2.5 -112 (1.5 units) There was a great scouting example of Bosnia from the Argentina game.  The first half - they played very well - created chances - and really won the half when Argentina were in a defensive (5 back) posture and lineup.  When that switched at HT to a more traditional 4 at the back and they had to deal with 3 forwards on attack - they were almost blitzed off of the pitch.  Of course - there is a class difference between Argentina and Bosnia - but it was clear that Bosnia were uncomfortable when Argentina was in attack mode.

Nigeria on the other hand has shown absolutely nothing in attack in their game against Iran, and really nothing in attack in any international play recently.  They cant seem to find their identity.  Their midfield cant link up their speedy forwards - and their wingbacks have been totally ineffective. 

I see a midfield dominated game with few chances - and while there is some scoring quality on Bosnia - there is very little on Nigeria other than breakaway potential.  Predicted final score Nigeria 0 Bosnia 1

BTW - 2 tips I can give to those just starting to watch soccer and bet it....

1.  Watch these games without sound.  Let your eyes tell you what is happening.

2.  While watching the ball is necessary - make yourself NOT watch the ball for long stretches.  Watch everything else going on on the screen away from the ball.  This is the single best way to understand what is going on.

Im sick about that Italy game.

Of all the games so far - this is really the first time I feel like I got it totally 100% wrong and should have known better.

It played out exactly like it should have - and I was just blind to it.