Before the tournament preview, just a thought or two about why WC betting is so enticing to me…
Most sports betting is routine. There are teams with players – and even though those players change and change teams – there is a lot of consistency. Not only with the players and teams themselves – but with the data you can put together to form statistics which can be predictive. The Bears are playing the Packers? Well – you have some decent amount of data about how those exact group of players play in those situations and even have previous results between the two. You can come up with an endless amount of narratives to point you in the direction you are wagering – all that can be supported through statistics.
Now enter the WC. It is a rare animal in the sports betting world – there is rarely (if ever, maybe Olympic Hockey) a situation where players are basically redistributed and play with almost zero history and in such a short cycle. It is almost like analyzing a pickup game at your local gym – you know the players, but when the teams are drawn – you have almost nothing to use except your analytical brain to come up with predictive results. Are matchups important? Individual talent? Familiarity? Coaching? Timing?
This leads to variance in not only predictive results – but also the betting lines. Packers against the Bears…. This line is going to be in a very solid predictable range and in the NFL – the results are also going to be very solidly in a predictive range. But a situation like the WC is very different. It is perception alone that is driving lines and prices, and many times these perceptions are wildly incorrect.
To me, this is a multi-skill handicapping situation. You cant be a stats nerd. You cant go on gut feel with no history either. You cant just know the sport. All of these skills and more go in to being successful at International Soccer. And best of all almost every narrative can be correct before the games begin – meaning that if you believe in your predictive analysis – you will almost always find what you believe to be great betting value.
One thing that is different about friendlies in Europe is that they used to be hard to use in analysis. But since the start of the Nations League – all friendlies are less friendly and much more competitive – against similar levels of competition. No more Germany vs San Marino with double digit goal differences. These games mean something – teams try – and play against very similar levels of competition. So they are actually a good indicator of form.
Keep in mind this is a preview. But in order to be successful betting an event like the WC is being able to observe and adjust accordingly to styles of play, run of form etc… So don’t be surprised if I appear to be taking game bets down the road that conflict with the pre-tournament predictions. It is one of those things that my writeups on day 1 are much shorter and much more presumptive than when we get in to knockouts – where you can truly analyze styles of play, personnel etc.
Along those lines…. This is a very unusual tournament in that the teams have only been together about a week to prepare. So teams that gel quickly and get up to speed have a huge advantage. I expect to see some favorites go down because of this – especially early – so I would be more wary than normal to bet big favorites in the early matches.
Add all of this to what I feel is the greatest sporting spectacle we have…. And this is why I don’t sleep for a month every four years. The WC has been very good to me – hopefully that continues… Good luck to everyone.
Hot Forum Topics
