A note on WC and anyone following.... My unit sizes will be between 1-5. First round games are very small, and as things gel unit sizes will get bigger.
DONT BLOW YOUR WAD IN ROUND 1!! The biggest bet in the first round will probably be less than the smallest in the knockouts.
"But a situation like the WC is very different. It is perception alone that is driving lines and prices, and many times these perceptions are wildly incorrect."
It's my belief that this is true of nearly every betting line in nearly any contest.
I think, also, that one of things that messes people up when betting the WC (and the Champions League qualifiers, too) is that they get fixated on players that they know from the Premiership or the Bundesliga or what have you, without thinking enough about all the players on the pitch, on both sides. And so, sides without instantly recognizable players are often undervalued. Just think about how dominant the pre-Salah Egyptians were for years in the Africa Cup of Nations (and how rarely these turned out to be coronations of sides led by famed Premiership players), or about the run Costa Rica had at the '14 WC, or about Greece shocking the world by winning the Euros in '04.
Last WC, Russia advanced (as hosts typically do) instead of Egypt, and Mexico advanced in place of Germany, and Japan over Poland. And Switzerland drew with Brazil! Dogs will always have tremendous value in this competition.
Great advice in life as well…
DONT BLOW YOUR WAD IN ROUND 1
Best of luck VanZ!
As an aside, you probably all know about Jerry, the drunk at the end of the bar. He's the guy you go to when you want to know who to fade: Jerry will tell you that a team is so good nobody can beat them....I'm sure he was all over the Bills in last year's NFL playoffs. Anyway, not only am I seeing lots of love for Argentina on this board, a guy in my office who is not a huge football watcher was going on and on about Argentina this week. For that reason alone, I wouldn't touch them with a 10-meter barge pole.
Van, Fantastic work as always.
I have a question regarding France.
Is your trepidation due to Pogba & Kante missing from this year's tournament? I for one think they will be big misses, particularly Pogba. The guy had a knack for being a fantastic ball distributor to the forwards. Plus, Benzima is no spring chicken these days..
@garbagetime
this wc will be different cause its played in the stinking desert...and the players are all fit....
and its mid season..fek sake daughter birthday xmas present and feking mortgage are riding on this...
chortle..
monlight shadow..shot six times...should shot me in the heed...fucking betfair cheating boit drivin cheats...
hate them as much as that pidgeoened toad horse faced deaf wanker....
@vanzack
You’re absolutely like no other in that you consistently win, and you always do it with a public line everyone can catch! Then you still express the Importance of shopping/catching the best line at their Book!!
Add your humbleness, and what’s clearly a mathematical/statistical approach and we all should be grateful. One of a kind, please keep teaching us Brotha
With that said, I would appreciate your insight on Canada, S. Korea & Switzerland?
These 3 have that “potential” chemistry in my humble opinion. Mahalo in advance, and enjoy the matches!!
HAHAHAHA! I wouldn’t sleep on Portugal, but carry on 
Well, traditionally it's at midseason of all the South American and Scandinavian leagues, and traditionally it's played in the hottest part of the year wherever it's played. I don't think this WC will be different.
Established in 1995,
I’m seeing it all through a different a whole new perspective 
Hot Forum Topics
