World Cup 2022 - Preview and Group Matches Thread...

@tommyla

 if you can bet both to advance at +100000 you should do it

@GAM

 Lol

Van -definitely agree on the Croatia match-both teams aren't going to deviate from the script and going to be a low-scoring, cagey match with possible extra-time. good luck!

@vanzack

The goat. I can't wait for who you pick in the final game to win wc

Argentina easily managed to qualify. Forance tody will be tough. Nevertheless the fianal for sure will be between Argentina and France. Even if in euro cup we had sometimes a surpice team in the fianl (Greece, Denmark), we had never in the final of the world cup. 

Memo to Moroccan fans: Your tournament is not over .  You still have one more game to put a positive note on this WC.  Sure, you're not winning the Cup, but you've exceeded anyone's expectations,  and the Arab+African community has one last chance to rally around their adopted team.

Why do I say all this.. because this sets up one the more interesting 3rd place games in a WC in recent memory.  3rd place games are hard to pick a side, because they are lot like CFB games in the bowl season IMO.   You have to get 2 things right...  Handicap the game correctly (assuming both teams play 100%), and figure out what team is motivated.

Morocco should be more than motivated to end this WC on a positive note, and they also should be competitive against this Croatia squad.  Combine those 2 factors w a Crotian side that may feel disappointed they couldn't find their way to another final, and this may set up for an attractive Moroccan win on Saturday.

@Rush51

 Well if my memory serves me right it's typically an over 2.5 game. Both sides go all out and van always loves this bet. 

oddsmakers have the final each at -110 to lift the trophy for ARG or FRA.

This is going to be one helluva final.  

Rush:

your plays have been great all tourney. Really looking forward to your thoughts this weekend. 

Van:

it’s funny. Your total units made don’t come close to how much this thread has provided in terms of individual game knowledge. 

All:

thanks to everyone else for making a thread with 30k views in the end an example of what these should be. I’ve been more of a spectator than mod here. Looking for a great final and hoping for Messi to raise the trophy. 

@djbrow

 Great thread amd great info. It took alot of time to put this together amd i know most are grateful for van for it 

Agreed!  

@Zacreth

  I do remember.  .  Over is usually the play.  

Look forward to hearing Van's thoughts on our final 2 games.  

@vanzack

 Germany to qualify 

couldn’t wake to get unblocked so I could reply to your insanity. You got RINSEDDDE this World Cup.. as predicted you know nothing of the sport.

I am laughing with France future and Argentina future… absolutely smashed this World Cup as I always do… should be taking notes from me mate. You got slaughtered !!! Stick to nfl you hack 

@Rush51

@Rush51. 

tou must be new to footy-  no body gives a rats a$$ about the third place game lol where have you been??

@MoVal88 

 The Footy Guy  

@MoVal88

 aren't you the idiot that was backing Uruguay to win it all?  What a dumb bet.  I could have easily told you that wasn't gonna happen.  Didn't you also guarantee Qatar would smash in goals this tournament?  Such a noob smh

@Rush51

 I have Argentina futures as well as 2 props "argentina + messi top golden boot" and argentina + mbappe top golden boot" so I count those 2 as simply as Argentina tickets as well as one should win if argentina wins 

Right off the bat, I thought Morocco as well as over 2.5.  The line at bookmaker came down from +205 to +183 on Morocco within 30 min to an hour after the game.  i thought this was heading to pk -115 or somethin by Saturday but it stabilized and came back up to its original +205.  That makes me pause.

Just my opinion, but after sleeping on it overnight, I honestly dont know the mindset or more importantly the mental energy they will have Saturday.  To come so close and to lose.  To play so disciplined all tourney and to give up a goal like that 4 minutes in?????  That lingers so hard.  And for it to be France that does it to you.  If you know Moroccan history and current climate, France always has a hand in its goverment policies one way or the other.  Its that extra painful kick to the nutz on top of the pain that automatically comes with losing in a semifinal.

For me its Morocco or no pregame bet.  Got a weird feeling that the over is setting up to be a bloodbath as well.  

Argentina is the only thing that has gone right for me all tourney so maybe just overthinking the 3rd place game is all.  good luck

Agreed  ! Nice breakdown 

Any thought on Croatia over Morocco for the 3rd place game?

One extra day's rest might be very meaningful when the game is on Saturday.  It means Croatia gets 3 full days while Morocco only gets 2.

I think historically, the team with more rest does better in the 3rd place game.

4th place = 25 million

3rd place = 27 million

World Cup Record:  -0.18 units (with 1.5 units on Argentina to win WC at +550)

3 Place Match – Croatia / Morocco

For those of you I have known online for a while…  This was an auto-play on the over in International tournaments for years and years.  These are the results of the World Cup 3 place match since 1978…

 1978 Brazil Italy 2-1 -
1982 Poland France 3-2 -
1986 France Belgium 4-2 -
1990 Italy England 2-1 -
1994 Sweden Bulgaria 4-0 -
1998 Croatia Netherlands 2-1 -
2002 Turkey South Korea 3-2 -
2006 Germany Portugal 3-1 -
2010 Germany Uruguay 3-2 -
2014 Netherlands Brazil 3-0 -
2018 Belgium England 2-0

Every match has gone over 2.5 except for the last WC in 2018.

If this wasn’t a mostly meaningless match at the end of a long WC run, I certainly wouldn’t be betting Morocco and Croatia over.  But I think the context of this match matters – and in this case I think we have seen glimpses of the way Morocco should approach this match – much like the first half of the Spain match or how they played all game against France.  I have read a bunch of quotes out of their camp that they are treating this game seriously, but like a celebration of their run and success.  They have shown that they can be successful not just by bunkering in and countering – but by being on the ball for long stretches and by bossing the game – which they really did against France for long stretches.

I can’t imagine Croatia won’t have a similar mindset.  They will be happy to take the reigns off and let their guys go for once.  The squads are a concern for me – if there are mass substitutions or changes – but this will be the last international match for a few key Croatian players (Modric included) and I would expect them to have free reign to go out and entertain.

Croatia / Morocco over 2.5 -105 (3 units)

GL all

Thanks DJ.  I agree on the thread....  There have been so many great posts in here...  Rush has been a big contributor - but there have been many others - all contributing to the overall knowledge and advancement of the goal of Covers... For us to put our individual pea brains together to make something more than just pea brains.  This has been a great example, and I am grateful to all who have participated.

Sitting right at even after many many wagers isnt my expectation.  But lets be real here...  Telling the future is difficult.  So while it isnt what I was hoping for or expecting, it certainly isnt the worst thing in the world either.  There are a lot of folks in the Soccer forum who have had better tournaments... BrooklynCapper for one, and there are others.

Thanks to all who participated - and lets get some cash on these last 2 matches!

Love it VZ. I think the wide open play favors the more talented offensive side, Croatia. For that reason, I’m on Croatia to win 3rd at -135, win in regulation at +128 and the Over 2.5.

Prediction Croatia 3-1

Looking forward to your thoughts on the final. It’s got me scratching my head 

on the over 2.5 too    

what book did you get it at -105 

it started most UK books at -110, now -138 in a lot of places 

GL Van - bet this a few days ago based on the history.  Chicken Dinner!!!