World Cup 2022 - Preview and Group Matches Thread...

@spockgato

 Babip yes sir!

@vanzack

 Can you please explain the motivation of why Croatia can care less to win this game especially mL? These 3rd game are a bunch of Under especially in the 1h

if draw Croatia still advance right?

@U812

They’re not gonna be playing for a draw. If they lose and Morocco wins, they’re out. They control their own destiny with a win. 

@Kaufee

 Thankyou. Let’s hope it all plays out accordingly.

To be clear, playing for a draw exposes tnem to one big play from Belgium and they’re out. They may get conservative if they’re ahead, but they’ll be playing for a win.

I love Croatia tomorrow, particularly b/c Bigium will be pressing, leaving themselves vulnerable on counter attacks. That’s where I expect Croatia to exploit Belgium’s aging team 

If nervous U812, I would play it safe…. Put half a wager on ML +177 current and half your wager on PK -111. 

GL 

@MoVal88

You may very well be the dumbest person to ever post on covers.  You come into someone's thread and accuse them of not knowing what they are doing.  Van was right, and you were wrong!  He knows a helluva lot more about this than you ever will!  I don't know much about soccer, but I know well enough to not make a complete fool of myself, like you did.  You don't even have the stones to come back here and admit you were dead wrong.  Loser!

@Vanzack

where are you able to find all the XG information for each of the World Cup matches? 

Nice call on that Belgium first round raus  

         thank you Croatia 

@U812

 Croatia wants to avoid Spain as runner up. From today result, they will be runner up and will have to face Spain if Spain finish 1st in their group which is very likely. The top team, Morocco, will be facing either German or Japan which is an easier opponent.

Today vs Japan Spain Japan Possession 82% 18% Shots 12 6 Passes 968 153 Score 1 2

Updated WC Record:  -2.63 units

Futures:
Senegal to qualify +115 (1 unit) 
Qatar exactly 0 points +300 (.5 unit)
Qatar under 2.5 points -130 (2 units)
England to win the group -260 (.5 unit win)
Poland to qualify -110 (2 units)
Denmark to win group +220 (1 unit)
Australia under 1.5 points +120 (1 unit)
Germany to win group +110 (2 units)
Japan to qualify +350 (.5 unit)
Croatia to win group +225 (1 unit)
Morocco to qualify +210 (1 unit)
Belgium not to qualify +430 (.5 unit)
Serbia to qualify +105 (1.5 units)
S Korea to qualify +235 (1 unit)
Portugal to win the group -150 (3 units win)

Friday:
Uruguay / Ghana - Uruguay -135 (2 units)
Portugal / S Korea - no bet
Brazil / Cameroon - Brazil -250 (1 unit win)
Serbia / Switzerland - Switzerland PK +110 (1.5 units)

GL all

FULL WRITEUPS FOR ALL KNOCKOUT MATCHES COMING

I am still angry about this one.  I thought a draw was close to impossible here - but Belgium didnt get the memo that a draw doesnt help them at all.

Still dont understand.

A very good place for XG is fotmob dot com

@vanzack

Same, I thought i was losing my mind in the first half. Belgium waited way too long to play with any urgency, and at that point (final 10 min), Croatia was content with the draw. 

looking forward to the knockout round write ups! Thanks Van

@MrCheeseIts

 Hot Tub Lou?

I am going to get 12 or 13 of the final 16, including a bunch of upsets (Japan, Morocco, Senegal, S Korea, Poland).

And I am not up enough money.

Frustrating.

USA / Netherlands

The Netherlands come out of Group A, which could be argued was one of the weakest groups in the tournament. They have looked decent at times – playing a lot in possession and getting key goals at the right times.  They are one of the most efficient goal scoring teams in the tournament, scoring 5 goals on 2.4 expected goals – and 3 goals on .8 XG in their first two matches against Senegal and Ecuador (excluding Qatar).

But it has to be seen as troublesome for the Dutch that they were in a scoreless draw with Senegal until the 80 minute, and thoroughly dominated in almost every aspect against Ecuador (1.7 XG Ecuador to .1 XG Dutch).  They have been solid in the back – playing largely a 5 man back with wingbacks – and the CBs of Ake, Van Dijk, and Timber have been very solid.  This is a differently built Dutch team than the years past – with the strength really being the defense and midfield, and I think that lends well for the USA to stay with them in this one.

The USA have already seen a similar test to what they will face in the Dutch when they played England – in that the possession should be mostly Dutch – with similar styles of outside in runners testing the defensive mids and back line of the US.  I am not a fan of the USA CB’s, but they have performed well enough while under pressure. 

I see this as a very tight low scoring match – with a likely 0-0 after 90 minutes.  The Pulisic injury is a big deal – and while he looks extremely likely to go it is a bit of a risk betting on the US knowing what he means to the side and that he is potentially less than 100%.  Betting the knockout matches is a different animal than group stages – knowing that there is extra time if tied – and the way teams approach that – makes 90 minute bets and “to advance” bets very different from each other.

USA +.5 -108 (90 minutes) (2.5 units) – Predicted 90 minute score 0-0 with Netherlands advancing in ET

Brazil -1.5 

over Brazil 2.5

Swiss cheese 

low Swiss 

@vanzack

Thank you again for such thoughtful advice. I am curious how you determine bets based on your predictions? For example, is the 0-0 after 90 minutes a sample prediction but ultimately you have more confidence on USA +.5 than on under 2.5 goals? (I hope my question makes sense)

Yes.  Most likely outcome doesnt necessarily mean a bettable outcome.

AFTER ALL GROUP STAGE FUTURES AND GAME BETS:

WC RECORD +2.37 UNITS

Remaining Futures:
Portugal to win WC +1600 (1 unit)
Argentina to win WC +550 (1.5 units)

Game Wagers:
USA / Netherlands - USA +.5 -108 (2.5 units)
Argentina / Australia - no bet

Argentina / Australia

Not much to write about here.  Australia have survived by making the very most of their limited opportunities, with slim 1-0 wins over both Denmark and Tunisia.  The situations in those games were the real story as Australia got up early in both and held on for dear life.  But they finish the group stage with a very ugly .53 XG per game stat.  I just don’t see where their goal scoring threats are going to come from against Argentina.

Argentina on the other hand have largely bounced back from their stunner in the opener against Saudi, and should cruise here starting their favorable road to the Semi-finals where they should meet Brazil.

Argentina win, but I am not willing to lay -480 or 2 goals.  I would lean under but if Argentina get up and Australia get desperate, Tina could easily take it over themselves.  Nothing to bet here for me.  Predicted final score Argentina 3 Australia 0

No Bet.

Here's an interesting stat that the USA should be proud of : They are only 1 of 5 teams that didn't lose in group play. 

Not even Brazil, Argentina, Spain, Germany, France, Belgium, and Portugal can say that !  

Regardless of how far they go from here, that's pretty cool. 

Big Game Tomorrow for the USA !!