World Cup Record: +9.67 units
Spain / Morocco
I received a pretty strong reaction on Covers when I posted that I thought Morocco would go through to the knockouts, all negative. They are the last remaining African team, and came out of Group F by only allowing a single goal in total to Canada, while holding Croatia and Belgium scoreless. Of the teams remaining – only England, Brazil, and France have lower XGA stats than Morocco. They know how to defend and counter, which is precisely the blueprint for beating Spain.
Spain have been Spain. A thousand passes per match, lots and lots of possession, but they are totally hit or miss when it comes to goals. They scored 7 against Costa Rica, but then went on to score 2 and give up 3 to Germany and Japan. When they are on, and efficient in front of goal – they can look unstoppable – but they have lapses where they cant score and get good opportunities, and then they look totally beatable by a good counter.
Morocco will pack back and likely have 7 in defense at all times – and probably defend deep – with Ziyech and El-Nesyri stalking the counter and ready to poach. Spain will have the possession – Spain will have the passes – Spain will have the shots – but Morocco should be able to counter effectively with speed and if they finish one or two chances – could pull the knockout rounds first major upset.
Morocco +.5 +155 (2 units) – Predicted Final Score Spain 1 Morocco 1 after 90
Switzerland / Portugal
I am not one to overreact to rumors about stuff off of the field, but this Ronaldo stuff is starting to reach the point where it has to be paid attention to. It seems like nobody likes this guy except his kids – and he is one of those rare guys who can demand to play and nobody can really stop him. A lot of people – including his own fans – feel like Portugal are a better team without him on the pitch – and whether they are or not is not really the issue – the issue is it cause real issues in a sport and tournament structure that requires teams playing together as one.
Portugal have looked good, not great, in winning their group. They are susceptible to giving up good scoring opportunities – as they did time and time again to S Korea in their last group match. But Switzerland pose a threat as a very balanced and organized side – with a great midfield that can stifle the Portuguese before balls are given in to the dangerous front men and counter. This is how the Swiss took apart Serbia, and Portugal are very similar.
I see real potential problems here for Portugal. They are the better side talentwise, but I think their style will catch up to them here and they will be frustrated similar to the way the USA were against the Netherlands.
Switzerland +.5 -106 (2.5 units) – Predicted Final Score Switzerland 2 Portugal 1
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