Spain's Final Analysis ;
What a disappointment... Again. This team has a serious identity crisis, because their "dominating possession" style play doesn't result in enough quality scoring opportunities. And when you get down to it, the problem is w/ the players not being able to execute the strategy AND creating enough quality opportunities. (as opposed to Vicente Del Bosque's teams that could a decade ago). This is now the 3rd consecutive tournament losing on PKs (Euro and 2 WCs). Perhaps the worst thing to happen to Spain in last year's Euros is getting to the semis w/ this strategy, because it gives them hope this is still the right course forward. It clearly isn't.
The last 30 minutes of today's game showed what is possible if they tweak their system, relying more on young forwards that can stretch the field. Fati & Williams need to play more prominent roles going forward. Spain has lots of time to think about it.. 
Croatia / Brazil
Croatia are a possession based team built on a strong midfield and defense. They are just as happy playing to a 0-0 as they are pushing tempo – they like the measured build up play – but in this World Cup there has been very little in terms of end product. In two of their four games, they didn’t score – and in the other two it took a spectacular header from a marked player towards the top of the box to score. Their XG rate is less about .8 in their three matches against Morocco, Belgium, and Japan.
The interesting thing is that those three sides are not exactly known for their defensive prowess – and it begs the question what will happen when they play Brazil and are likely not in control of the ball for long stretches? Will they be able to cause the turnovers that lead to opportunities on the counter against a Brazil side with the best defense so far at the tournament? I just don’t see it.
Brazil are flying – and it really comes down to their defense first. Unlike the Brazil of old, this version relies on a rock solid back line and goalkeeping that springs attacks in numbers because they can risk wingbacks going forward – because if they need to defend with 3 – they can. Look at these XGA numbers…. .2, .3, .5, .5. That is going to win you a lot of games no matter what your front line is doing – and it just so happens that their attack is almost as good as their defense.
If Croatia come out and try to defend for 90+ minutes, I just don’t see how it can work. Brazil have too many weapons – and the key is that they can take chances by overloading zones because they have such quality in support. So they can take chances by outnumbering the midfield knowing that they have great support on a counter. I just don’t see any other result other than a Brazil win here, so I am willing to lay a goal to reduce the juice a little bit.
Brazil -1 -155 (win 2 units) – Predicted Final Score Brazil 2-0
Argentina / Netherlands
Personal note… I have been on the wrong side of every match that I went against my pre-tournament read. I have double crossed myself in all of them – but here we go….
I think Argentina are beatable here. It mostly comes down to what I saw from the Netherlands against the USA. If they play that exact system, Argentina is vulnerable. It goes like this…. When Argentina’s two center backs get possession – the front line of Gapko and Depay push way wide – and cover the pass to the wingbacks. This leaves the center of the field wide open – where Argentina are really lacking a playmaker in the middle that can receive and start the attack between the lines.
This results in Messi likely dropping further and further back towards his own goal – to try and be that guy – but now he is out of danger and out of position to help the attack. This same stifling strategy was used on the USA, and the counterattack was lethal. For the Dutch – it all comes down to efficiency in front of goal on counter attacks – and they have been ruthless with a capital R. If that continues – where they get a goal from every four or five chances – Argentina are cooked.
Argentina were broken by a Saudi Arabia side playing a very similar style – who were also ruthless with their chances.
My pretournament read was Argentina as the winner – so the fact that I am betting the Netherlands means they will probably win with ease, but…
Netherlands to advance +150 (risk 3 units) – Predicted final score Netherlands 2 Argentina 1
Great stuff as always VZ!
I’m a bit surprised to see you flip on Argentina. I get what you’re saying about Netherlands exposing the U.S. But can we really compare the U.S. to Argentina? The Argentina D have given up one goal in 3 matches since being shocked by Saudi Arabia. My thoughts are the Saudi shocker was just what they needed, a wake up call.
Outside of Pullisic, how many U.S. players even make the Argentina team? I also understand Netherlands are a step up in quality. However, I feel like they got by with a relatively easy group stage. Qatar being a total freebie. Have they really been tested?
Much appreciation and respect to you. You’re my favorite read on Covers, always have been. I’m just big on Argentina to advance tomorrow and was super disappointed…. and now quite worried after reading your write up.
Nonetheless, best of luck to you.
Cheers!
Thank you sir. I really appreciate this.
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