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NHL Home Chase 3 Games Variation Plus 2

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elithepunk

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Posts: 3552

Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 12:35 PM ET #226

Quote Originally Posted by looch17:

Eli do i play all three games or just untill they win? Do i only double up my bet if they lose the first game?

OK, this is a CHASE system so I'm guessing people who show up in this thread and see the record think it's gonna be easy to rack up the wins. But, play carefully.

You are chasing a home WIN. That's it. No more after the Bruins win a game which is hopefully the first game of the home stand tonight. If they lose, than yes, we double up to recuperate the losses on the second game and so on.

Bernie - As per the set up of the system, the home series started on January 16th and ends on February 5th and had a total of 8 games. Colorado lost the first game but won against Calgary on January 18th so that ended the chase. But, nothing stopping anyone from starting another chase as of tonight with 5 games left on the home stand.

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marnypoly

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Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 1:42 PM ET #227

are you guys still chasing the teams who lost right before the all-star break?

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looch17

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Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 1:44 PM ET #228

Thanks a lot Eli that helps a lot, Hope the streak continues. Seems like a pretty solid system.

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Bernie69

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Joined: Dec, 2005

Posts: 24

Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 2:51 PM ET #229

Thanks for the clarification Eli, I am going with Boston and Colorado tonight. I am going to try to win $100 per chase, hopefully that isn't too ambitious.

Anyone trying this with thier local?

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expertcapper

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Posts: 2800

Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 3:18 PM ET #230

Ok all star break is over
ready to get back into action
i believe our record to date is 88 -5
so we still chase Florida or not?Eli, Seahawks I think we should, also zags i will not deviate against any home teams just fade the bottom 8 from last year
Here is what you do:

Top 16 Home Records
PIT, NJ, NYR, WAS, CAR, DET, NAS, CHI, MIN, COL, EDM, ANA, DAL, MON, OTT, SJ,
Middle teams still play the home chase with these also
Buffalo, Colorado, Philadelphia, Boston, Vancouver, Calgary
Play all these teams when you get a 3 or more game home series on the calendar of the NHL SEASON never chase more than 3 games

Bottom 8 Home Records
LA, PHO, STL, TB, ATL, FLO, TOR, NYI
Play these teams to lose when the have a 3 or more game home series never chase more than 3 games
Any concerns about this guys please respond

todays games
Jan 27

Washington
Boston      -148

San Jose
Colorado +178

Phil    -104
Florida    we fade this team last years bottom 8 home record
Any concern please respond thanks

Capper

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seahawksanders

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 432

Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 3:44 PM ET #231

I am playing Boston tonight and Columbus (Blue Jackets are 6 games over .500 at home, 13-7 and are starting a 4-game homestand tonight).

Boston is an obvious play. I haven't been fading teams (I know I'm missing out there on a lot of plays and money). Florida is currently 4 games over .500 at home the same as Colorado, so why fade one and play on the other? I'm basing my plays (and my unit size) on their current home records.

Current top 5 home teams: San Jose, Washington, Calgary, Boston, and Detroit.

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seahawksanders

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Posts: 432

Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 3:50 PM ET #232

btw, what happens to those of you who play the regulation line and the game goes into OT (obviously you root for your play to lose then so the chase is still alive).

For instance, if you play the Bruins regulation line tonight and they win in OT what do you do? I'm considering it, but the Capitals worry me (they've owned the Bruins as of late).

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collectNOW

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Joined: Aug, 2007

Posts: 11359

Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 3:57 PM ET #233

Just joining in guys......hope i can offer some credibility or just watch in silence as we win.

Expert,eli and zags....great research

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seahawksanders

Prospect

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Posts: 432

Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 4:05 PM ET #234

CollectNOW, no love for my research? lol j/k...I do have a spreadsheet for you though if you are interested (drop me an e-mail at ssanders80 at yahoo dot com).

Tonight's final card for me:

Bruins (regulation line) +102 ($49.02 to win $50)

Bruins ML -145 ($72.50 to win $50)

Blue Jackets ML +145 ($34.48 to win $50)

Good luck on your bets guys. Another thing I do in NHL to make money is chase overs on Atlanta & St. Louis (just wait for 1 under and then bang away). Research that since December 1st, impressive stuff.

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elithepunk

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Posts: 3552

Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 4:12 PM ET #235

Quote Originally Posted by seahawksanders:

btw, what happens to those of you who play the regulation line and the game goes into OT (obviously you root for your play to lose then so the chase is still alive).

For instance, if you play the Bruins regulation line tonight and they win in OT what do you do? I'm considering it, but the Capitals worry me (they've owned the Bruins as of late).

Yeah, Seahawks, that's basically what happens. Nothing worse than betting the regulation line and seeing your team win in OT or shootout but it's gonna happen for sure. Also, this should be done ONLY when the juice is too high with the normal money line. So, basically, I'd set myself a limit like -200.

Columbus should also be a play and I got a feeling they can pull it off against the Wings. Hopefully, the dogs come out barking tonight.

Also, EXPERT, perhaps a new thread in honor of the second half starting tonight should be created cause this one is getting really long. It's be quite easy, just make sure you copy-paste your last post into your new thread and we'll talk there.

Seahawlks, not feeling comfortable with Colorado ?

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expertcapper

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Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 4:12 PM ET #236

So Eli is this ok what picks I have here because Zags said to fade the bottom 8 home teams of last year so Colorado would be a team to play at home any sugestions on this would be appreciated.
Seahawks what you think is best here on Colorado?
Last time i faded TB at home they won all 3 so i think to stick with the home team here Colorado, because they were not in the bottom 8 last year.

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elithepunk

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Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 4:16 PM ET #237

shit my last post got fucked up

Yeah, Seahawks, that's basically what happens. Nothing worse than betting the regulation line and seeing your team win in OT or shootout but it's gonna happen for sure. Also, this should be done ONLY when the juice is too high with the normal money line. So, basically, I'd set myself a limit like -200.

Columbus should also be a play and I got a feeling they can pull it off against the Wings. Hopefully, the dogs come out barking tonight.

Also, EXPERT, perhaps a new thread in honor of the second half starting tonight should be created cause this one is getting really long. It's be quite easy, just make sure you copy-paste your last post into your new thread and we'll talk there.

Seahawlks, not feeling comfortable with Colorado ?

--------------------------------------

Expert - Yeah, I'm understanding your picks for tonight but I don't feel completely comfortable with the new filter of using last year's home standings. It just doesn't make sense but it does seem to work so let's see how you do.

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seahawksanders

Prospect

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Posts: 432

Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 4:27 PM ET #238

Eli, Colorado beat Calgary at home before the break. Is this a new homestand or a continuous one? Tough call, but the Sharks are scaring me. I may end up trying to do it for $50 (plus Toronto is up next which should be a win, but then Calgary comes back - no way they beat them two times in a row, right?).

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expertcapper

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Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 4:30 PM ET #239

Guys a bit of confusion here
above in the thread from SRTZZEE it says Col, actually I have looked it up and Colorado and Columbus both have home chases

I agree ELI i am starting a new thread and I will have tonights games on the new thread called NHL Home Chase 3 Games Variation Plus 3
right here https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100359688

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elithepunk

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Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 4:31 PM ET #240

Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:

so we still chase Florida or not?

Yeah, this is the 3rd game of the chase since Florida lost their 2 last home games. Kinda risky to fade them once again but that's because you are using the new list of teams to fade.

Also, just to make it official, we need to add this game to the list

Detroit Red Wings
Columbus Blue Jackets +130

Seahawks - Yeah I know about their win but since it's such a long home stand and there was a huge break, I'm gonna consider this a <<new>> homestand. I'm still considering these plays because I love the dogs after the all-star break but Colorado isn't too impressive so far.

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seahawksanders

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Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 4:31 PM ET #241

Columbus is a great home team, they may not do it tonight, but they will come through for us...I hope!

So Eli, if you play the regulation line and the team wins in OT do you end the chase and suffer the loss? Sorry, just trying to clarify (I split the $100 with Boston tonight between ML and regulation line, but you're right, I should only do that on -200 or higher).

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elithepunk

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Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 4:39 PM ET #242

OK, expert, perfect, you added the Columbus play.

Seahawks - Very unlikely to lose a whole chase because of the regulation line. It's more of a defense mechanism to not get burned because of situations like Luongo coming back to the Canucks after 3 home losses and the line being set at -235. The following game, the line was still at -203 after 4 conseucituve home games lost. So thats my basic strategy to not dig a hole too deep or else it's over.

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seahawksanders

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Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 4:47 PM ET #243

Eli, I understand what you are saying, but what if the team you play on wins in OT when you have bet on the regulation line? Do you end it there? To go after a 2nd home win would be pushing it, no?

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elithepunk

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Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 5:37 PM ET #244

Quote Originally Posted by seahawksanders:

Eli, I understand what you are saying, but what if the team you play on wins in OT when you have bet on the regulation line? Do you end it there? To go after a 2nd home win would be pushing it, no?

Oh, yeah, exactly. That would be pushing my luck too far. But I forgot to mention that it hasn't happened so far this season so I never was faced with that ind of decision.

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elithepunk

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Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 9:39 PM ET #245

Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:

Columbus should also be a play and I got a feeling they can pull it off against the Wings.

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expertcapper

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Posted: Jan. 28, 2009 - 1:25 PM ET #246

Guys 2 more wins in the column with Columbus and Boston, i thought i seen someone say stick to the original plan not use this years records so thats what I did by taking Phil..........
anyways thats what were are doing from now on no capping because it just confuses everyone

Jan 28 we have one game

Nashville
Vancouver -175 ( Vancouver is not in the bottom 8 home teams from last year, but they can't get a win and the Canucks are 0-7 in their last 7 games as a favorite. But i am sticking to the original plan as to nevr go against the one with the home chase and is not in the bottom 8

Any concerns about this pick Eli, Seahawk or anyone else would be greatly appreciated