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NHL Home Chase 3 Games Variation Plus 2

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KINGFANJEFF

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 35

Posted: Jan. 21, 2009 - 2:18 PM ET #201

Again......not in the system but the Kings are probably primed for a loss tonight.

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expertcapper

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 2800

Posted: Jan. 22, 2009 - 5:27 PM ET #202

guys 86-5 going into the All Star Break
Hopefully after the all star break we will continue

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elithepunk

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3552

Posted: Jan. 22, 2009 - 6:42 PM ET #203

Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:

guys 86-5 going into the All Star Break
Hopefully after the all star break we will continue

Again, Expert , a missed day of posting has caused you to add another loss to the system. Hear me out:

You choose to fade Tampa Bay at home and they lost against Philly which was your pick on January 15th.

Then, you did not get a chance to say who was your pick on January 17th when Florida was in town.

Tampa lost that game so the fade chase would have been over. Instead, you jumped over that game and chose to fade Tampa again for 2 more games which they "unfortunately" won.

Perhaps I can get involved in tracking the original system with more details ( units and teams ) after the all-star game but BOL with the rest of the season.

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DrLump

Veteran

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 2267

Posted: Jan. 22, 2009 - 9:52 PM ET #204

Thanks for the info guys.....no questions or ny thing....just going to follow the original chase system to a "T" with no deviation..... after the A/S break & gonna see where if my units can increase.

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zags

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2005

Posts: 14

Posted: Jan. 23, 2009 - 12:44 PM ET #205

I stayed with the original chase system and did not deviate at all. I'm using last years home records. Currently at the All-Star break the system is 93-1.

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seahawksanders

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 432

Posted: Jan. 23, 2009 - 1:12 PM ET #206

Just made my $1,500 deposit to 5dimes to gear up for the 2nd half! I am probably going to do $100 units, still not sure.

Zags, which teams are you chasing? Are you fading teams too or just playing on the top home teams? Nice!

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elithepunk

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3552

Posted: Jan. 23, 2009 - 5:43 PM ET #207

Quote Originally Posted by zags:

I stayed with the original chase system and did not deviate at all. I'm using last years home records. Currently at the All-Star break the system is 93-1.

Hey, nice record but gotta admit it doesn't make any sense at all to use last years home record when teams have played almost 42 games this season. It's not even comparable. But, I must admit the handicapping and filtering in this post hasn't worked to perfection. Still, it was mostly logical and expert is basing his picks on good info.

I do agree with previous posters who are urging people to stick to original systems. The less changes made, the more solid the system is. Perhaps everyone using variations of the original system should keep track of their picks in a collection of threads so we can see in advance how these variations are doing.

BOL to everyone for the second half and even more luck to you Seahawks with that big deposit. Hope you can withdraw way more than that by the end of the season. Keep it simple and no crazy bets on those Canucks hehe

.

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seahawksanders

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 432

Posted: Jan. 23, 2009 - 5:48 PM ET #208

lol, the Canucks killed me Eli (I picked the worst time ever to double my unit size and stick with it through 4 games)!

Thanks for the well-wishing though. I agree completely that the system is brilliant and shouldn't be tweaked too much. I'm pumped for Jan. 27th to get here and to get this started.

You jumping back in on the 2nd half of the season Eli?

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elithepunk

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3552

Posted: Jan. 23, 2009 - 6:01 PM ET #209

Quote Originally Posted by seahawksanders:

You jumping back in on the 2nd half of the season Eli?

Damn, did not think it was that bad with the Canucks

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I'll be around here for sure and considering re-investing all the profit (without my deposit) on the second half of the season. Let's call it a high-risk investment with money already won hehe. Not completely sure which version of the system my money is gonna be on but I'm gonna make good use of the break to figure it out. See you then

.

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seahawksanders

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 432

Posted: Jan. 23, 2009 - 6:14 PM ET #210

Nice man, I've been working on my spreadsheet for a while today. Fire an e-mail to me if you want to see what I have (ssanders80 at yahoo dot com)

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elithepunk

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3552

Posted: Jan. 23, 2009 - 6:48 PM ET #211

Seahawk, check your inbox, should be interesting if we could combine spreadsheets as I've sent you what I have so far

.

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zags

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2005

Posts: 14

Posted: Jan. 24, 2009 - 2:30 AM ET #212

Quote Originally Posted by seahawksanders:

Zags, which teams are you chasing? Are you fading teams too or just playing on the top home teams? Nice!

Seahawks, I'm also fading the bottom 8 teams with the worst home record from last season. To tell you the truth, I didn't have time to track the bottom 8 for the current season so I stuck with the worst 8 home teams from last season and it has paid off wonderfully.

Eli, I agree with you, it doesn't make sense to fade the bottom 8 using last seasons record but it's working. The only team that has been causing issues is Florida. They are a stronger home team then last year but so far so good.

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seahawksanders

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 432

Posted: Jan. 24, 2009 - 7:20 PM ET #213

Guys, I've been researching every single team since the 2005-06 season and have found lots of things.

I only counted 3 games or more home stands and counted a chase loss if a team lost all 3 games or 4 games of the homestand (if there were 5 games and they lost the first 4, I counted it as a loss, even if they won the 5th game).

Some interesting figures:

Playing only the top 5 home teams is 102-1 (since '05/'06).

Playing only the top 10 home teams is 191-4.

Playing only the top 15 home teams is 285-11.

The following teams have NEVER had a chase loss within this system's parameters:

NJ, NYR, Montreal, Boston, Florida, Detroit, Nashville, Columbus, Calgary, Colorado, and Minnesota!

I am pumped for Tuesday to get here!!!

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elithepunk

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3552

Posted: Jan. 24, 2009 - 10:47 PM ET #214

Quote Originally Posted by seahawksanders:

Guys, I've been researching every single team since the 2005-06 season and have found lots of things.

I am pumped for Tuesday to get here!!!

Wow, nicely done man. Must have been tedious to find out all that information but very interesting to see how solid this trend is. Some details are left out though so I'm wondering how top teams are decided and more importantly, WHEN the decision is made.

Thanks also for sharing this in the thread.

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jbrent95

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 63

Posted: Jan. 26, 2009 - 9:51 AM ET #215

Seahawk, is there anything unique or common in the lossess of the Top 10 or Top 15 home teams? One idea is to see how many of the 11 losses incurred by the Top 15 team included a series with a Top 5 team. In other words, what is the record of the Top 15 teams if you eliminate any series with a Top 5 team?

I would be glad to do some additional research if you can send me your spreadsheet. (just add a yahoo.com to my handle).

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Joediggy

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 21

Posted: Jan. 26, 2009 - 4:13 PM ET #216

I like the system does anyone have the record for the individual games 1,2,3 and 4? I am trying to figure out if each game in the home series has a winning record.

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zags

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2005

Posts: 14

Posted: Jan. 26, 2009 - 5:44 PM ET #217

Joediggy - The records below does not include any variations to the system, fade bottom 8 home teams using last seasons home record and play to win on all other teams. Eli or someone else who has been following closely can come up with % on the results using handicapping variations used on this thread.

record 93-1 (using last seasons home record - no variations)

winning %

1st game 61% : where 57 of 94 won 1st game

2nd game 68% : of the remaining 37 teams that lost 1st game 25 teams won 2nd game

or 87% : 82 teams out of 94 possible won one of the 1st 2 games

3rd game 75% : 9 of remaining 12 teams won 3rd game

or 97% - 91 teams out of 94 possible won one of the 1st 3 games

4th game 67% : 2 of 3 won 4th game or 99% won at least one of the first 4 games on the homestand

Vancouver only team to lose 4 straight home games.

Top 16 Home Teams won

63% of their 1st game

90% of either their 1st 2 games

96% of their 1st 3 games

100% of their 4 games (once)

Bottom 8 Home Teams won (fade)

56% of their 1st game

84% of their 1st 2 games

100% of their 1st 3 games (lost once in 3 games)

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looch17

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 7017

Posted: Jan. 26, 2009 - 6:18 PM ET #218

i think i am starting to get this, just started reading the thread today. Do we start over fresh since the All-start break interrupted the homestands. Also does this mean we get to start a chase with Boston tomorrow night, cuz that would be awesome.

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Joediggy

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 21

Posted: Jan. 26, 2009 - 6:19 PM ET #219

Thanks for breaking it down for me. What do you think about fading the bottom 8 before the break.

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elithepunk

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3552

Posted: Jan. 26, 2009 - 9:27 PM ET #220

Quote Originally Posted by zags:

Vancouver only team to lose 4 straight home games.

Hey, no unfortunately I did not keep records of the results for each game of the chase. Just overall record.

But, by the way, those 4 games Vancouver lost at home were juiced like CRAZY. We're talking bout -280, +245, -150, -235, and -203 to recuperate the losses. How did you get around that? Playing the regulation line always when the line is worse than -200?

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CurtisSumpter

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 1289

Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 4:33 AM ET #221

Can someone post the nightly plays so I can get a hang of how this works because I am completely lost! Or can someone just explain the system to a simpleton?

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Bernie69

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2005

Posts: 24

Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 9:21 AM ET #222

How much are people playing per unit? Anyone playing 100 dollar units? How is it working?

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elithepunk

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3552

Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 9:45 AM ET #223

Quote Originally Posted by looch17:

i think i am starting to get this, just started reading the thread today. Do we start over fresh since the All-start break interrupted the homestands. Also does this mean we get to start a chase with Boston tomorrow night, cuz that would be awesome.

YES - Boston is playing three consecutive home games so system is simply to chase the home win. Very important, if you can bet regulation lines to cut down the juice, try it out or else it's gonna cost a shit load of dough to get through the 3 games if ever it happens to go the distance.