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NHL Home Chase 3 Games Variation Plus 2

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seahawksanders

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 432

Posted: Jan. 10, 2009 - 3:19 PM ET #126

Solid call Eli (jumping off the train). It's hard to push something to be much more successful than this system is.

Next season I will play larger, but once I hit a goal of 50 units I will be done for the season. I love that approach and wish I would've done it this season, but I hopped on-board too late.

Thanks for all the help and support you have given this thread man.

I was researching the history of this system and found that the Red Wings have not lost a 3+ game home stand in this system since the lockout! I may go much larger on their remaining home stands!

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elithepunk

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Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3552

Posted: Jan. 10, 2009 - 3:35 PM ET #127

Quote Originally Posted by seahawksanders:

I was researching the history of this system and found that the Red Wings have not lost a 3+ game home stand in this system since the lockout! I may go much larger on their remaining home stands!

Watch out for your book's max bet size hehe

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seahawksanders

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 432

Posted: Jan. 10, 2009 - 4:33 PM ET #128

Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:

Watch out for your book's max bet size hehe

Yeah, something tells me I'll stay a bit under the $5,000 limit at 5dimes....this season at least! :)

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rdomer

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 6

Posted: Jan. 10, 2009 - 10:46 PM ET #129

If you just stick to the system, there would have been no chase on Cal or LA and if you would have stuck it out with Nas, it would be 77-1. Why handicap a system that seems to be working?

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rdomer

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 6

Posted: Jan. 11, 2009 - 2:02 AM ET #130

Now that i look back, them system would be 78-0 if Edm would have been chased according to the system.

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elithepunk

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Posts: 3552

Posted: Jan. 11, 2009 - 3:55 AM ET #131

Quote Originally Posted by rdomer:

Now that i look back, them system would be 78-0 if Edm would have been chased according to the system.

Easy to say now that these results lead to this conclusion but yes, you are correct in pointing out that handicapping a system that works is not always the best option. In fact, I think this is what this thread helps us do. Point out the general rule of the system and keep track of any variation that seems interesting. At the same time, nothing prevents us from keeping in mind the original plays of the system without the decision making and special circumstances.

Also , what exactly do you mean by the ''system'' ? From the start, the plan was to fade bottom 8 home teams and the complication this caused was how do you decide who is bottom 8 material. So, how did you go about deciding this?

Lastly, since I'm not following that closely , what were the plays played yesterday ? Anyone still playing the chases?

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expertcapper

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Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 2800

Posted: Jan. 11, 2009 - 7:09 AM ET #132

Was real bad sick yesterday, I apologize for not putting the teams here but had food poisoning not fun
will be back later with updates

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JoshLewis

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 477

Posted: Jan. 11, 2009 - 7:21 AM ET #133

Quote Originally Posted by rdomer:

Now that i look back, them system would be 78-0 if Edm would have been chased according to the system.

Exactly! In fact, Edmonton should not be counted as a lost.

Btw anyone can backtrack this system? The only lost I remember was Anaheim I guess? (They lost 3-in a row at home, sigh!)

In addition, no need to fade bottom teams imo. Just chase top 18-20 home teams. That's all!

So the record is 78-0 or 77-1 right now?

About wager limits / bookmaker limits

I have a betting account in 5 bookmaker + 1 exchange. No limit problems :)

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JoshLewis

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 477

Posted: Jan. 11, 2009 - 7:25 AM ET #134

I got an idea. Maybe we should chase these teams using Regulation Line! Less juice, less risk. So even a 2-3 lost won't hurt the system too much. Any opinions?

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expertcapper

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Posts: 2800

Posted: Jan. 11, 2009 - 11:13 AM ET #135

I was very sick yesterday and I apologize for not getting the games out.But will try to update today.
77-2 is our record to date as Colorado gets the win for us
Hopefully thats the right record me being so sick I probably forgot something.
Todays games

Jan 11

Nashville
Chicago -240 so play the -0.5 line

NJ
Anaheim -140

Good luck

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Anita z

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2005

Posts: 35

Posted: Jan. 11, 2009 - 12:07 PM ET #136

What am I missing,Ive follow these plays for weeks and seen several losers,wheres this 77-2 come from and I didnt see colo posted anywhere yesterday,somebody please fill me in.thx

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elithepunk

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Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3552

Posted: Jan. 11, 2009 - 1:22 PM ET #137

Quote Originally Posted by Anita z:

What am I missing,Ive follow these plays for weeks and seen several losers,wheres this 77-2 come from and I didnt see colo posted anywhere yesterday,somebody please fill me in.thx

This is a CHASE system using martingale money management where losses are recuperated in a series of games. Of course there will be losses along the way. Only important thing is to not lose 3 consecutive games.

Also, using the -0.5 line could be a very interesting variation that is worth looking into. I'll do some research if I have time to see how this would work out.

BTW, Nashville also lost 3 consecutive games not long ago so I don't see how you can have perfect records using either strategy.

And, JoshLewis, how can you say << Less juice, less risk. >> You increase the risk involved by needing a team to win in regulation. In other words, there is another way for a chase to end up losing if a tim wins all games in OT so MORE risk is involved but at least the juice is cut down significantly.

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seahawksanders

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 432

Posted: Jan. 11, 2009 - 2:01 PM ET #138

wtf is going on here? Can we lock this thread to exclude newbies? hehe

Eli, I know you feel my frustration too. I can't believe the people coming in here and saying, "uhh...this system has a lot more than 2 losses," or "what's this system about?" or "keep me informed if the thread changes, etc." Seriously people?

Nothing comes easy people, have some initiative and research a bit on your own and don't jump to conclusions before you actually read the thread(s) and make a post.

Sorry, I guess I'm just pissy because of the Canucks & Ducks! :) Let's go Ducks & Blackhawks tonight, please!

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seahawksanders

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 432

Posted: Jan. 11, 2009 - 2:09 PM ET #139

Sorry again, but even though this chase is very simple it does require some amount of work.

I spend about an hour a day on this and Expert, Srtzee, and Eli have put in TONS of time helping a lot of us out.

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seahawksanders

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 432

Posted: Jan. 11, 2009 - 10:36 PM ET #140

Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:

Jan 11
Nashville
Chicago -240 so play the -0.5 line

NJ
Anaheim -140

Good luck

A nice night for us all! YES!

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DIMECLUB

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 17

Posted: Jan. 12, 2009 - 10:37 AM ET #141

For all u people who question the records of these guys , DON'T BET THEM THEN. No one is making you take these games. These guys are money and alot of hard work goes into these picks. Of course they are all not going to hit. But these guys are as good as iv'e seen in years.Quit asking so many questions and bet the games. brock

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Lippsman

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2001

Posts: 87445

Posted: Jan. 12, 2009 - 11:00 AM ET #142

Then how about using the -1 line. That way you still have OT included and you have cut the juice way down or even made a fav into a dog. You would just have to end the chase on a tie I guessing. So you would have to calculate the stats oh how this would make your season record to compare

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seahawksanders

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Posts: 432

Posted: Jan. 12, 2009 - 11:06 AM ET #143

Yeah Lipps, I like the -1 line, but what if you are in game 3 of the chase and they win by 1. You still have to recoup the losses from game 1 & 2 somehow, but I guess you could carry that over to the next chase?

What are we doing with Dallas tonight? They have: Detroit, Buffalo, and L.A. Dallas is 9-6-3 at home, but given their opponent's on this homestand I think it's a fade play? I think there is a better chance they go 0-3 on this homestand as opposed to 3-0.

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elithepunk

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Posts: 3552

Posted: Jan. 12, 2009 - 11:22 AM ET #144

Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:

77-2 is our record to date as Colorado gets the win for us

Expert, Colorado was not even in the chase schedule as they were only playing 2 consecutive home games starting on January 8th and finishing with the win on the 10th. So, we'll have to take away one win from the record as this was clearly a mistake in the list of teams from SRTZEE's thread.

I like the idea of trying out the -1 line. Perhaps, this should be looked into for the first 2 games of the chase.

Gonna update the record soon ...

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expertcapper

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Posts: 2800

Posted: Jan. 12, 2009 - 11:33 AM ET #145

I am sorry I ment Columbus, with 2 more wins last night with the Blackhawks and Ducks making it 79-2
I think this is right I have not been on her enough because of my sickness and computer problems

Todays games

Jan 12

Detroit -170
Dallas

TB
LA Kings -137

Good luck

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elithepunk

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Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3552

Posted: Jan. 12, 2009 - 11:47 AM ET #146

Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:

I am sorry I ment Columbus, with 2 more wins last night with the Blackhawks and Ducks making it 79-2
I think this is right I have not been on her enough because of my sickness and computer problems

Oh, right, my turn to be wrong, did not think of columbus when I read off the list of chases in the list.

You are correct with the record, it is indeed 79 - 2.

However, very important to note the ongoing chases.

LA is playing it's third game of the chase tonight so this is an important game.

Also, Vancouver has also lost 2 games (although one was against San Jose and you would probably not have bet against them, I have to go with the original system and bet the home team) and will be playing their third game of the chase tomorrow night.

I think this updates pretty much everything. Record is still doing fine but might get hit by some chases not hitting on the third game.

Hope you feel better as soon as possible expert, BOL to everyone

.

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seahawksanders

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Posts: 432

Posted: Jan. 12, 2009 - 11:59 AM ET #147

Kings won their first game of their homestand vs. Anaheim, I closed them out then, didn't you Eli?

It's funny to see the variations on what everyone is playing within the system (usually you can't go wrong either way, but I believe if you fade game 1 you should fade the whole series...jumping back and forth from fade to chase or vice versa is dangerous).

I'm taking the Red Wings on the regulation line for -114. Good luck guys.

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elithepunk

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Posts: 3552

Posted: Jan. 12, 2009 - 12:07 PM ET #148

Quote Originally Posted by seahawksanders:

Kings won their first game of their homestand vs. Anaheim, I closed them out then, didn't you Eli?

I'm taking the Red Wings on the regulation line for -114. Good luck guys.

Yes, indeed, loved the Kings at home but I was updating expert's record here and he chose to fade the Kings on game #1 so the chase has to continue.

This is why I was starting to get worried because by going back and forth without any strict restrictions, anyone (even expert

) could get unlucky and be on the wrong side of a game 3 times during the chase and lose even though the original system would have won .

Like Detroit tonight as well. Hopefully the chase with Dallas ends right here cause no way these guys are predictable this season.

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KINGFANJEFF

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 35

Posted: Jan. 12, 2009 - 1:51 PM ET #149

Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:

Yes, indeed, loved the Kings at home but I was updating expert's record here and he chose to fade the Kings on game #1 so the chase has to continue.

Why? If you faded the Kings in game 1 then you won bet two when they lost to New Jersey on Saturday.

If you played the Kings in on game 1...then you won when they beat the Ducks.

There is no way the Kings can be a "system" play tonight strictly speaking.

That being said. I like them to win this game.

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elithepunk

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Posts: 3552

Posted: Jan. 12, 2009 - 2:29 PM ET #150

Quote Originally Posted by KINGFANJEFF:

There is no way the Kings can be a "system" play tonight strictly speaking.

That being said. I like them to win this game.

I understand the point you are making. However, the problem is that expert had no plays posted on Saturday so how do we know what the play was? He made a play on Anaheim the first game of the chase but that does not mean the play would have been Jersey on the second game. Or, it might have been. Who knows, thats the problem. LA is a good home team so the system says choose them unless there is a good enough reason not to.

This is why the chase with LA should not be ended until there is a definitive winner is this thread. I think most of us were on LA when they played Anaheim anyways .