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ppg system

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Posted: #126
OK Sergio, Thanx For Adding Me. Now, Help Me Understand This, How Are You Indicating When A Play Is A NP Or Fade?  For Ex. This BSU/FSU Game The Sum Of It Is -4.5, So Does That Mean If The Sum Of It Is Too Low It's Considered A NP Or Fade?  Do You Mind Helping Me Understand That More, Please?  Thank You
 
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Posted: #127
no  play is when we have a team that is getting 6 points or more in value but has a losing ATS record. If the team has not been able to be a good investment, it's not a good bet. Some of these will be wider spreads because they are play-against teams. Now if the fave also has a losing ATS record, it may be worth a shot. Generally however, I'm interested in the undervalued dog with fight that can win OUTRIGHT.
 
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Posted: #128
Quote Originally Posted by sergio1994:

no  play is when we have a team that is getting 6 points or more in value but has a losing ATS record. If the team has not been able to be a good investment, it's not a good bet. Some of these will be wider spreads because they are play-against teams. Now if the fave also has a losing ATS record, it may be worth a shot. Generally however, I'm interested in the undervalued dog with fight that can win OUTRIGHT.
  Ok, Thanx
 
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Posted: #129

Sat talley pending

 

SUNDAY

 

wisc 67

psu 67 pk/+4.5 = PLAY PSU +5

134/126 = PLAY OVER 126

 

GTOWN 66

DEP 63 +3/+10 = PLAY DEPAUL +10

129/121 = PLAY OVER 121

 

HOU 74

IOWA ST 79 -5/-5.5

153/163 = PLAY UNDER 163

 

CREIGHTON 66.5

EVANS 69 -4 = 65 +1,5 /+5

 

X 67

WF 72.5 -7 = 65.5 +1.5/-4 = PLAY X +4.5

 

IND ST 67

DRAKE 67 PK/-1

134/129.5 = PLAY OVER 128

 

S ILL 69

ILL ST 71 -2/-4.5

140/143

 

MD 78

UNC G 65 +8 = 73 +5/+15.5 = PLAY UNCG +15

 

MONT ST 68

ID ST 67 +1/-2.5

135/130 = PLAY OVER 129

 
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Posted: #130
sat recap

sides lwlwpw 3-2-1
totals wwlllwllllwwll 5-9 
 
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Posted: #131
SUN recap

1-3 sides
2-3 totals
3-5 overall


MONDAY plays

pit 65
cinci 72.5 -7.5/-4
137.5/125 = PLAY OVER 125

ODU 69
TOW ST 65.5 -4 = 61.5 +7.5/+12

DEL 66
JMU 71 -5 = 66 PK/-10 = PLAY DEL +10*

AL 69
TOL 64 +5/+14.5 = PLAY TOL +14
133/133

MISS ST 71,5
W KY 65 +6 = 71 =PK/+7 = PLAY ON W KY +7

US SB 63.5
UC RIVER 70 -3 = 67 -3.5/-4
133.5/127 = PLAY OVER 127

CAL POLY SLO 67
UC IRV 73 -5 = 68 -1/-8 = PLAY ON CAL POLY SLO +8

FAIR 70
NIAG 70 PK/-6.5 = PLAY FAIRFIELD +6.5
140/141

SIENA 69
LOY MD 70 -1/+6 = PLAY LOY MD +6 AND ML
139/135

MAR 59
ST P 64 -5/-9.5
123/116 = PLAY OVER 116

RID 67
MAN 69 -4 = 65 +2/-2.5 = PLAY RIDER +4 AND ML*

UNC 78
CC 74 -4 = 70 +8/+14.5 = PLAY CC +14.5

TN ST 66
MOR ST 73 -7/-14 = PLAY TN ST +14
139/135

TN TECH 69
E ILL 71 -4 = 67 +2/-4 = PLAY TN TECH +4*

TN M 63.5
MUR ST 80 -16.5/-22 = PLAY TN MARTIN +22*
143.5/151.5 = PLAY UNDER 151.5

JAX ST 72.5
SEMST 71 +3 = 74 -1.5/+2

*including these cuz both teams have losing ats records.

Pit and cinci both have real good Def's and not so good Off's so i don't like the over. there are similar matchup issues with some of the other totals here so beware.
 
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Posted: #132
3-6 overall on Sun
 
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Posted: #133

tues

smiss 66

mar 75 +7 = 82 -16/-8 = PLAY MARSHALL -8

 

TX 78

ARK 69.5 -3 = 66.5 +11.5/+16 = PLAY ARK +17.5

 

MIN 69

PUR 71.5 -2.5/-8 = PLAY MIN +8.5

140.5/138.5

 

UCF 67

OLE MISS 75.5 -8.5-16.5 = PLAY UCF +16

142.5/143

 

BALL ST 61

DAY 67 +8 = 75-14/-17.5

 

MIA OH 64.5

COL 73 -9 = 64 = PK/-7.5 = PLAY MIA OH +7.5

 

NM 68

SD ST 71.5 -5 = 66.5 +1,5/-3 = PLAY NM AT +4.5+  

 

 
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Posted: #134
monday recap

6-4-1*
2-2 totals
ml's 1-1

*assumes you played the two ml's and whatever spread you got with rider. on games where a ml recommendation is made, the spread difference does not have to equal 6 points to trigger a play. usually a play like this dances around being a pick'em.


4 outright winners including the biggest upset with Coll of Charleston dropping UNC. E ILL needed overtime to get past Tenn Tech.

For Tuesday, play NM ml and whatever +line you can get, currently +3 most everywhere. Mia-Oh also is worth a little on the ml.
 
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Posted: #135

WED

from the bottom up...

smu 66

utep 77 -11/-18 = np or fade smu

143/144

 

usc 66

stan 66 pk/pk

132/124 = PLAY OVER 124

 

UCLA 65.5

CAL 77 -11.5/-16.5

142.5/147.5 = PLAY UNDER 148.5

 

CIT 66

APP ST 70 -4/-7.5

136/130 = PLAY OVER 130

 

PRIN 63.5

MAR 59 +4.5/+4

122.5/112 = PLAY OVER 112
 
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Posted: #136
wisc 68.5
mich st 70 -1.5/-7= PLAY WISC +7.5
138.5/134

RUTGERS 66
WVU 71 +6 = 77 -11/-18 = PLAY RUTGERS +18

TOW ST 66
HOF 71.5 -5.5/-11 = NP OR FADE TOW ST
137.5/140

LOU 77
PROV 75.5 +1.5/+3
152.5/159.5 = PLAY UNDER 159.5

ST J 66
TEMPLE 73 -7/-14 = NP OR FADE ST J
139/132.5 = PLAY OVER 133

RICH 64
DUQ 66 -2/+3
130/124 = PLAY OVER 124

TUL 63
TULSA 73 -4 = 69 -6/-14.5 = PLAY ON TULANE +14.5

CORN 68
KA 78 -10/-22 = PLAY CORNELL +22
146/150

IND ST 67
BRAD 65 +2/-4.5 = PLAY IND ST +4.5
132/127 = PLAY OVER 126

DRAKE 62
CRE 68.5 -6.5/-13.5 = PLAY DRAKE +13.5 (OFF-SETTING LOSING ATS RECORDS)
130.5/134.5

DEP 63
NOVA 74 -11/-18.5 = PLAY ON DEPAUL +18.5
137/135.5

ECU 65
UAB 74 +3 = 77 -12/-18 = PLAY ECU +18


 
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Posted: #137
tues recap

2-3 sides

ark did cover but the spread never got to +17 as far as i could see.

onto BIG WEDNESDAY...
 
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Posted: #138
thurs card sux, or lines are getting tighter

FUR 72
ELON 72 PK/-1
144/139.5

MOR ST 69.5
TEN TECH 76 -6.5/PK = PLAY TENN TECH PK
145.5/146

ID ST 65
N AZ 73 -8/-4
138/132.5 = PLAY OVER 132

TN MARTIN 69
AP 78 -9/-15.5 = NP OR FADE TN MARTIN
147/148
 
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Posted: #139
wed recap

4-3 sides
3-5 totals
 
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Posted: #140
Hey Sergio, It Seems Like The Fade Plays Show A Better Result Than Your O/U's In NCAAB.
 
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Posted: #141
figures the fades are starting to come in as ppg value evaporates.


FRIDAY


st m 75
sf 72 +3/+10 = PLAY SF +10
147/146

PAC 69
CAL POLY 67 +2/+7 = PLAY CAL POLY +8
136/129 = PLAY OVER 129


ST P 63.5
MAN 63 PK/-3
126.5/117 = PLAY OVER 117

E WASH 60
MONT 73 -13/-16
133/126.5 = PLAY OVER 126.5

 
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Posted: #142
thurs recap

0-1 sides
0-1 totals
1-0 fades
 
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Posted: #143
friday recap

0-2 sides
3-0 totals

SATURDAY (overnight lines used)

ne 67
ga st 63 -8=55+12/+4.5= PLAY NE -4.5 (UP TO -6)

ST J 66
LOU 72 -6/-10.5
138/141

MISS ST 69
MISS 72 -3/-2
141/147=PLAY UNDER 147

DUQ 62
DAY 68 -6/-12 = NP OR FADE DUQ
130/126

K ST 73
MIZZU 79 -6/-5
152/159 = PLAY UNDER 159

DEL 67
VCU 76-9/-15=PLAY DELAWARE +15
143/141

MARQ 70
NOVA 75 -5/-9
145/152=PLAY UNDER 152

DART 60
HARV 72.5 -12.5/-23 = NP OR FADE DART
132.5/129

CREI 64
WICH ST 70.5 -4=66.5-2.5/-7.5

CM 65
TOL 63.5 +5=68.5-3.5/+4.5 = PLAY TOLEDO +4.5 (DOWN TO +2.5) AND ML

UNLV 70
NM 70 PK/-5.5 =PLAY TCU +6 AND ML
140/146.5 = PLAY UNDER 146.5

NEB 65
TX A&M 71 -6/-8
136/128 = PLAY OVER 128

UGA 65
KENT 77 +4 =81-16/-21

BC 68
CLEM 71 -3/-10 = NP OR FADE BC
139/141

ARK ST 68
S AL 69 -1/-7 = PLAY ARK ST +7
137/136

RICE 63.5
UCF 68.5 -5/-7.5
132/128

MICH ST 73
IOWA 66 +7/+14.5 = PLAY IOWA +14.5
139/137

WF 67
MIA 73 -8 =65 +2/-5 = PLAY WF +5 (DOWN TO +4) AND ML

ST B 71,5
CHAR 76 -5.5/-6
146.5/151

CS F 65
UC R 68.5 -3.5/-2/
133.5/129 =

MARSH 74,5
ECU 71 +3.5/+5.5
145/152 = PLAY UNDER 152 (DOWN TO 151)

BG 61
69 -8/-12
130/122 = PLAY OVER 122

LA MON 74
FL ATL 76 -2/-6.5
150/155.5 = PLAY UNDER 156

TUL 77
HOU 79 +3 =82 -5/PK = PLAY HOU PK

DRAKE 63
S ILL 69.5 -6.5/-13 = PLAY DRAKE +13.5
132/137 = PLAY UNDER 138

RUTGERS 71
PROV 75 -4/-9= PLAY RUTGERS +10
146/151.5 = PLAY UNDER 152

ILL 70
IND 73 -4 =69 +1/+6.5 = PLAY INDIANA +6

uab 68
tul 65 +3/+6
133/128.5

troy 76
fl int 72 +4/+6
148/153 = play UNDER 154

NO 64.5
N TX 70 -5.5/-13 = PLAY NO +13
134.5/131

MDTSU 68.5
ARK L 67.5 +4 =71.5 -3/+1.5 = PLAY ARK LR +3

LA TECH 73
ID 71 -4 = 67 +6/PK = PLAY ID PK

NM ST 71
BSU 75 -4 =71 PK/-7 = PLAY NM ST (OFF SETTING LOSING ATS RECORDS)

BYU 74
UTEP 72 -3 = 69 +5/-1 = PLAY BYU +1

AF 64
COL ST 68 -4/-11 =PLAY AF +11
132/123.5 = PLAY OVER 123.5


this is the entire card excluding the added games. all calculations and lines are approximate. play responsibly.



 
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Posted: #144

SUNDAY

 

ind st 70 -6/-8.5

134/126 = PLAY OVER 126

 

SFL 66

CUSE 73 +4 = 77 -11/-17 = PLAY SFL +18

 

LA SALLE 70

MASS 73 -3 =PK/+1.5

143/150 = PLAY UNDER 150

 

NW 66

MICH 68 -2/-6

134/129.5 = PLAY OVER 128

 

W KY 67

DEN 70 -9 =61+6/+1 = PLAY W KY -1 (OFF-SETTING)

 

VALPO 63

WGT ST 73 -10/-14

136/131.5 =

 

KA 73

TN 71 +2/+6

144/151 = PLAY UNDER 151

 

WA 74

AZ 74 +3 = 77 -3/+2 = PLAY AZ +2

 

FSU 69

MD 70 -5 = 65 +4/-5 = PLAY FSU +5 (OFF-SETTING)

 

PAC 62

UC SB 64.5 -2.5/+1.5 =

126.5/121.5 = PLAY OVER 120.5

 

VT 74

UNC 75 +4 =79 -5/

 

SD 68

SF 71.5 -4=67.5 +.5/+3

 

STM 73.5

SB 64 -3=61 +12.5/+13

 

ST M 73.5

SCL 74 -3 =71 +2.5/+13 = PLAY SANTA CLARA +13

 

MAN 64

FAIR 68 -4/-8.5

132/130

 
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Posted: #145
sides WWLLWLWLWLPLLLWWL
totals LLLWLLLWLLL

7-9-1
2-9 

9-18-1 

PRETTY SHITTY, i know. I guess now would be a good time to remind you that some plays are better than others and to use this list to narrow your own list of plays.
 
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Posted: #146
monday

nova 75
lou 75 pk/-2
150/156 = play under 156

ok st 72
ok 70 +3 = 73 -1/+1
142//147

haw 65
ut st 74 -9/-18 = play hawaii +18 (off-setting)
139/137

uncg 65.5
ut chat 76 -9 = 67 -1.5/-8 = np or fade uncg

can 66
siena 72 +4 = 76 -10/-15.5 = play canisius +16

iona 67
loy md 66.5 +.5/+2
133/126 = play over 126

rid 69
mar 66 +3/+8.5 = play marist +9
135/132

e ill 65
mur st 72 -7/-18 = np or fade e ill
137/130 = play over 130
 
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Posted: #147
Sunday recap

sides 3-2
totals 3-2

TUESDAY

tx a&m 70
k st 73.5 -3.5/-8 = play tx a&m +9.5
143.5/147

nc st 64
fsu 71 -7/-8.5
135/127 = play over 127

kent st 66
mia oh 63 +4 = 67 -1/-3

osu 65
pur 72 -7/-8
137/136

vcu 67
hof 67 pk/+1.5
134/135

wyo 72
tcu 73 -1/-6.5 = play wyo +7
145/145

mizzu st 71
drake 65 -3 =62 +9/+5
136/133

md 73
wf 71.5 +5 = 76.5 -3.5/-6

bay 74
col 70 +4/+5.5
144/147

psu 66.5
ill 70 -3.5/-9 = play psu +9.5 (off-setting)
136.5/129 = play over 129

brad 62.5
n iowa 71 -8.5/-13.5 =
133.5/127 = play over 127

kent 71
fl 68 +3/+2
139/142

tn st 67
iowa 69 +5 = 74 -7/-12.5 = play tn st +13
 
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Posted: #148
mon recap

1-2 totals
1-2 sides
fades 1-1
 
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Posted: #149

looking for 7 point differentials to cut back on this BIG WEDENESDAY

min 69

mich st 72 -3/-7

141/141

pit 68

cn 69 -1/-6 =

137/131 = play over 130

wvu 69

sfl 68 +1/+8.5 = play sfl +8.5

137/128 = play over 128

mia 68

vt 68 +4 = 72 -4/-3

136/131

bc 66

duke 76.5 +3 = 79.5 -13.5/-16

142

del 63

ne 71 -8/-17 = play delaware +17 (down to +15)

134/124 = play over 124 (up to 127)

drex 70

towson 68.5 +1.5/+3.5

138.5/134

cinci 67

st j 67 pk/-1

134/131

ecu 65

mem 77 -12/-21 = play ecu +21 (down to +19)

142/141

odu 67

uncw 64 +3/+7

131/128

wich st 65.5

ind st 64 +1.5/+4

129.5/123 = play over 122.5

tol 58.5

e mich 68,5 -7 = 61.5 -3/-13 = np or fade toledo

akr 68

oh 67 +1/-1.5

136/130 = play over 129

ball st 59

c mich 64 -5/-9

123/114 = play over 114 (116)

st l 62

duq 64 +4 = 68 -6/-6.5

ga st 62

gmu 62 +5 -5/-9

gt 66

uva 68 -2/-1

134/131

gw 72

la salle 70 +6 = 76 -4/-3.5

mass 66

rich 73 -7/-14.5 = np or fade mass

139/136

st j 71.5

ri 77.5 -6/-14.5 = np or fade st j

149/154

char 70

x 77 +5 = 82 -12/-13

cuse 76

rutgers 67.5 -4 = 63.5 +12.5/+13.5

w mich 67

n ill 66 +1/+1

133/130

marshall 69.5

ucf 68 +3 = 71 -1.5/+3

evans 63

ill st 71 -3 = 68 -5/-13.5 = play evansville +13.5 (off-setting)

byu 73

af 64.5 - 6=58.5 +14.5/+!5

temple 73

penn 61.5 -4 = 57.5 +16.5/+20

tx 77.5

iowa st 74 +3.5/+8

151.5/152

lsu 66

sc 76 -10/-10

142/139.5

ole miss 73

ga 69 +4/+3.5

142/141

tulsa 71

smu 72 -1/+8 = play smu +8 (+6)

143/139

 

2nd half of the card tbd...
 
 
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Posted: #150

rice 63.5

tulane 68 +4 =72 -8.5/-6

 

utep 78.5

hou utep 77 +5 =82 -3.5/-2

wisc 65.5

nw 64 -5 = 59 +6.5/+3

ka 69

neb 67 -4 = 63 +9/+12

s ill 68

creighton 68.5 +3 = 71.5 -3.5/-4

mizzu 76

tt 72 +4/+3

148/157 = play under 157 (155)

unc 72

clem 76 -4/-4.5

148.5/152.5

vandy 71.5

bama 69 +2.5/-1.5

140.5/142

dayton 72

ford 65 -6 = 59 +13/+19 = play fordham +20

utah 67

nm 71 -4/-10 = np or fade utah

138/139

sd st 68.5

unlv 70 +3 =73 -4.5/-7

ut st 71

nev 73 -2/-3

144/146

elon 66

app st 72 -6/-12.5 = np or fade elon

davidson 67,5

furman 68 -6 = 62 +5.5/+6

 

Tues recap

sides 3-1

totals 1-2

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