without a doubt tho to posters above me the higher the percentage on a team, you should usually bet opposite. There are other factors that come into play though, and tonight I am feeling the Colts as the right play, and I feel better about that pick by the fact that 62 percent like the titans to cover, and although that is not my 80 percent it still means more bettors are on Titans then colts.
As for the 81% on the Colts money line, that scares me a little and will make me not play this game too large.
More importantly Titans 6-0 Ats and like I said I doubt many teams have started the year 7-0 overall and 7-0 against the spread . With the exception of New England last year, who BTW after that strong against the spread start, started to lose most ATS games towards the end of the year, and didnt cover once in the postseason.
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without a doubt tho to posters above me the higher the percentage on a team, you should usually bet opposite. There are other factors that come into play though, and tonight I am feeling the Colts as the right play, and I feel better about that pick by the fact that 62 percent like the titans to cover, and although that is not my 80 percent it still means more bettors are on Titans then colts.
As for the 81% on the Colts money line, that scares me a little and will make me not play this game too large.
More importantly Titans 6-0 Ats and like I said I doubt many teams have started the year 7-0 overall and 7-0 against the spread . With the exception of New England last year, who BTW after that strong against the spread start, started to lose most ATS games towards the end of the year, and didnt cover once in the postseason.
other factors come into play besides just percentages.. but the percentages do help me make my decision.
Sometimes maybe people misunderstand and think I fade percentage over 80 percent. Not the case I play a maximum of 3 games a weekend, and try to bet kinda large, and go 3-0 or 2-1 to stay positive. I do not like betting 6 or 7 games because then even 4-3 you could be down money because of the VIG.
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other factors come into play besides just percentages.. but the percentages do help me make my decision.
Sometimes maybe people misunderstand and think I fade percentage over 80 percent. Not the case I play a maximum of 3 games a weekend, and try to bet kinda large, and go 3-0 or 2-1 to stay positive. I do not like betting 6 or 7 games because then even 4-3 you could be down money because of the VIG.
Your arguuument is valid to a point! I myself, pick my games anddonot look at consensus! Vegas manipulates the line!!
I LOVE THE UNDERS, and have a dime on it! Staying away from side tonight, but I think the Texans are a better team than their record indicates and they winn tonight! Just my opinion??????
BOL 2 ALL! PG
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Your arguuument is valid to a point! I myself, pick my games anddonot look at consensus! Vegas manipulates the line!!
I LOVE THE UNDERS, and have a dime on it! Staying away from side tonight, but I think the Texans are a better team than their record indicates and they winn tonight! Just my opinion??????
the texans? who are they playing tonight? coulda sworn the titans played tonight and they are 6-0 so how could their record not indicate how good they are when its perfect SO FAR.......... keyword being so far
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the texans? who are they playing tonight? coulda sworn the titans played tonight and they are 6-0 so how could their record not indicate how good they are when its perfect SO FAR.......... keyword being so far
try it and done it!!!! all systems still suck.....u can throw all in the trash can....peoples alway come up with system everyday after games already final....but when u try the system......u get kill....the best system is flip a coin....lol
Follow or Fade
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try it and done it!!!! all systems still suck.....u can throw all in the trash can....peoples alway come up with system everyday after games already final....but when u try the system......u get kill....the best system is flip a coin....lol
Reading into consensus info (real or made up) is not a good strategy. In fact its not a strategy at all. Its like going to the roulette table, waiting till you see 70+% of the bettors on black and then betting red...because the house always wins right?
I like sports betting because i try to use my sports knowledge to find the incorrect spreads. And if it comes in, its because I won, not because the public lost. Of course money is money and a win is a win, but doesn't it seem degenerative when all you are doing is betting against the public?...I mean that is what you are putting your $$$ on...you are betting on(or against) the betting public, not if INDY can stop TENN's running game...see my point?
The question of the legitimacy and accuracy of the consensus numbers should be more than enough reason to lay off blindly betting based on public%. When you and the public are on the same side, only use that as areason to turn your pick into a no play...not a reason to take the other side.
As for tonight. I don't like INDY's D to stop TENN's running game. Though I worry that TENN will be up 9 or 10 in the 4th Q only to play prevent D and allow Peyton to run the 3 minute offense into the endzone for a back door cover. -3 at the half, and -4 for the game reinforces that feeling. I will take my chances with a half unit on TENN -3 (+105) at the half.
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Reading into consensus info (real or made up) is not a good strategy. In fact its not a strategy at all. Its like going to the roulette table, waiting till you see 70+% of the bettors on black and then betting red...because the house always wins right?
I like sports betting because i try to use my sports knowledge to find the incorrect spreads. And if it comes in, its because I won, not because the public lost. Of course money is money and a win is a win, but doesn't it seem degenerative when all you are doing is betting against the public?...I mean that is what you are putting your $$$ on...you are betting on(or against) the betting public, not if INDY can stop TENN's running game...see my point?
The question of the legitimacy and accuracy of the consensus numbers should be more than enough reason to lay off blindly betting based on public%. When you and the public are on the same side, only use that as areason to turn your pick into a no play...not a reason to take the other side.
As for tonight. I don't like INDY's D to stop TENN's running game. Though I worry that TENN will be up 9 or 10 in the 4th Q only to play prevent D and allow Peyton to run the 3 minute offense into the endzone for a back door cover. -3 at the half, and -4 for the game reinforces that feeling. I will take my chances with a half unit on TENN -3 (+105) at the half.
you lying sack of sht, u only seem to point out the games where it works, the most lopsided games in terms of money were redskins over detroit and baltimore over oakland, and guess what the public got both of those right....you haven't proven a thing since you started this useless thread....basically your retarded theory is guess which games will go against the public and which ones wont...you aren't bringing any novel info to this forum so stop misleading these poor people...otherwise start a thread with ur nfl picks and keep a record, and let's see how u do at the end of the season
I got a feeling Kashl is working for the sportsbooks & sees a guy providing some insight on how to use the numbers against the books, just a useful handicapping tool & he sees this thread has over 15,000 views, HAHA! I bet that pisses off those clowns!
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Quote Originally Posted by kashl2008:
you lying sack of sht, u only seem to point out the games where it works, the most lopsided games in terms of money were redskins over detroit and baltimore over oakland, and guess what the public got both of those right....you haven't proven a thing since you started this useless thread....basically your retarded theory is guess which games will go against the public and which ones wont...you aren't bringing any novel info to this forum so stop misleading these poor people...otherwise start a thread with ur nfl picks and keep a record, and let's see how u do at the end of the season
I got a feeling Kashl is working for the sportsbooks & sees a guy providing some insight on how to use the numbers against the books, just a useful handicapping tool & he sees this thread has over 15,000 views, HAHA! I bet that pisses off those clowns!
I wish anyone nothing by luck and good things if they can win by any hook or crook. But people with so little knowledge of how the sportsbetting industry works, should not be wagering. If they win it truly is blind luck. When it is said that the books are "tricking" the public with bad lines, that would lead one to believe that the books know who is going to win. I lived in Vegas for half my life and knew many book managers and more employees. Believe me, if they thought they knew the winners from the losers, or the good lines from the bad, for that matter, they would be on the other side of the counter.
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I wish anyone nothing by luck and good things if they can win by any hook or crook. But people with so little knowledge of how the sportsbetting industry works, should not be wagering. If they win it truly is blind luck. When it is said that the books are "tricking" the public with bad lines, that would lead one to believe that the books know who is going to win. I lived in Vegas for half my life and knew many book managers and more employees. Believe me, if they thought they knew the winners from the losers, or the good lines from the bad, for that matter, they would be on the other side of the counter.
Reading into consensus info (real or made up) is not a good strategy. In fact its not a strategy at all. Its like going to the roulette table, waiting till you see 70+% of the bettors on black and then betting red...because the house always wins right?
I like sports betting because i try to use my sports knowledge to find the incorrect spreads. And if it comes in, its because I won, not because the public lost. Of course money is money and a win is a win, but doesn't it seem degenerative when all you are doing is betting against the public?...I mean that is what you are putting your $$$ on...you are betting on(or against) the betting public, not if INDY can stop TENN's running game...see my point?
The question of the legitimacy and accuracy of the consensus numbers should be more than enough reason to lay off blindly betting based on public%. When you and the public are on the same side, only use that as areason to turn your pick into a no play...not a reason to take the other side.
As for tonight. I don't like INDY's D to stop TENN's running game. Though I worry that TENN will be up 9 or 10 in the 4th Q only to play prevent D and allow Peyton to run the 3 minute offense into the endzone for a back door cover. -3 at the half, and -4 for the game reinforces that feeling. I will take my chances with a half unit on TENN -3 (+105) at the half.
Definitely not the same thing as roulette and betting against the house...
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Quote Originally Posted by ThtsGoodKnwldge:
Reading into consensus info (real or made up) is not a good strategy. In fact its not a strategy at all. Its like going to the roulette table, waiting till you see 70+% of the bettors on black and then betting red...because the house always wins right?
I like sports betting because i try to use my sports knowledge to find the incorrect spreads. And if it comes in, its because I won, not because the public lost. Of course money is money and a win is a win, but doesn't it seem degenerative when all you are doing is betting against the public?...I mean that is what you are putting your $$$ on...you are betting on(or against) the betting public, not if INDY can stop TENN's running game...see my point?
The question of the legitimacy and accuracy of the consensus numbers should be more than enough reason to lay off blindly betting based on public%. When you and the public are on the same side, only use that as areason to turn your pick into a no play...not a reason to take the other side.
As for tonight. I don't like INDY's D to stop TENN's running game. Though I worry that TENN will be up 9 or 10 in the 4th Q only to play prevent D and allow Peyton to run the 3 minute offense into the endzone for a back door cover. -3 at the half, and -4 for the game reinforces that feeling. I will take my chances with a half unit on TENN -3 (+105) at the half.
Definitely not the same thing as roulette and betting against the house...
I'm shocked to read the lack of knowledge on how lines are created and how sports books operate.
What else is incredible is the conspiracy theories that some create.
If it comforts you to use this betting strategy, then by all mean, please do. There are no conspiracies against bettors and Vegas could care less how you decide to make a bet... they simply want you to make a bet.
When the line or juice begins to move, that's when you know money has flowed to one side or the other. Consensus or betting percentages mean absolutely nothing.
It does mean something!!
The majority of the Public loses betting sports and the majority of the Sharpies wins and these are the tools a hanndicapper uses to find out which side the Sharpies are on.If sharpies are hammering a game and the Public is hammering the opposite side.I want to be on the sharpie side everytime!
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Quote Originally Posted by newty25:
I'm shocked to read the lack of knowledge on how lines are created and how sports books operate.
What else is incredible is the conspiracy theories that some create.
If it comforts you to use this betting strategy, then by all mean, please do. There are no conspiracies against bettors and Vegas could care less how you decide to make a bet... they simply want you to make a bet.
When the line or juice begins to move, that's when you know money has flowed to one side or the other. Consensus or betting percentages mean absolutely nothing.
It does mean something!!
The majority of the Public loses betting sports and the majority of the Sharpies wins and these are the tools a hanndicapper uses to find out which side the Sharpies are on.If sharpies are hammering a game and the Public is hammering the opposite side.I want to be on the sharpie side everytime!
I wish anyone nothing by luck and good things if they can win by any hook or crook. But people with so little knowledge of how the sportsbetting industry works, should not be wagering. If they win it truly is blind luck. When it is said that the books are "tricking" the public with bad lines, that would lead one to believe that the books know who is going to win. I lived in Vegas for half my life and knew many book managers and more employees. Believe me, if they thought they knew the winners from the losers, or the good lines from the bad, for that matter, they would be on the other side of the counter.
I understand what your saying but take for instance the Bills/Miami game, their was 80% on Bills -1 & the line swings the other way, the books are begging you to take the Bills=LOSER, another game was the Chargers/Saints, SD opened up at -3 & was getting pounded all week & the line closed at -3=SD LOSER!
My point is, if they wanted action on both sides of that SD/NO game, that line should have been SD -5, they knew who was going to win. People think Vegas is only trying to get action on both sides for the vig, thats true but they are such greedy bastards that there are 2 or 3 games a week where they will devour the public & the 2 examples I gave were just the tip of the iceberg, alot more to come this season!
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Quote Originally Posted by doubtingthomas:
I wish anyone nothing by luck and good things if they can win by any hook or crook. But people with so little knowledge of how the sportsbetting industry works, should not be wagering. If they win it truly is blind luck. When it is said that the books are "tricking" the public with bad lines, that would lead one to believe that the books know who is going to win. I lived in Vegas for half my life and knew many book managers and more employees. Believe me, if they thought they knew the winners from the losers, or the good lines from the bad, for that matter, they would be on the other side of the counter.
I understand what your saying but take for instance the Bills/Miami game, their was 80% on Bills -1 & the line swings the other way, the books are begging you to take the Bills=LOSER, another game was the Chargers/Saints, SD opened up at -3 & was getting pounded all week & the line closed at -3=SD LOSER!
My point is, if they wanted action on both sides of that SD/NO game, that line should have been SD -5, they knew who was going to win. People think Vegas is only trying to get action on both sides for the vig, thats true but they are such greedy bastards that there are 2 or 3 games a week where they will devour the public & the 2 examples I gave were just the tip of the iceberg, alot more to come this season!
carolina 70% loss...depending on if you got 4 or 5
sd 65%....loss
ne 75%..loss or push
jax 70%..loss
san fran 68%....loss
jets 75%....loss
cincy 68%....loss
the only game the public won on with higher percentages was baltimore.......
so how can any of you people say that fading public is bullshit
it has helped me win a ton this year....although I can say it does not work as accurately in college....I am new on here but I totally disagree with people who dont think public betting means anything...dolphins at kickoff were a 1pt fav over the bills, I mean come on wtf is that, you would have to be stupid to take buffalo
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the public lost on all of these games yesterday:
buf 80%.....loss
carolina 70% loss...depending on if you got 4 or 5
sd 65%....loss
ne 75%..loss or push
jax 70%..loss
san fran 68%....loss
jets 75%....loss
cincy 68%....loss
the only game the public won on with higher percentages was baltimore.......
so how can any of you people say that fading public is bullshit
it has helped me win a ton this year....although I can say it does not work as accurately in college....I am new on here but I totally disagree with people who dont think public betting means anything...dolphins at kickoff were a 1pt fav over the bills, I mean come on wtf is that, you would have to be stupid to take buffalo
The majority of the Public loses betting sports and the majority of the Sharpies wins and these are the tools a hanndicapper uses to find out which side the Sharpies are on.If sharpies are hammering a game and the Public is hammering the opposite side.I want to be on the sharpie side everytime!
1) Real handicappers don't give a shit on where the sheep are putting their money. They cap the games and bet the ones that have a large enough discrepancy between their spread and the posted line to warrant laying hard earned money on it.
2) How do you know that the "sharpies are hammering a game and the Public is hammering the opposite side"??? Cause the consensus #'s don't have an asterisk displaying where only the "sharpies" are laying their $$$.
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Quote Originally Posted by MJ2345:
It does mean something!!
The majority of the Public loses betting sports and the majority of the Sharpies wins and these are the tools a hanndicapper uses to find out which side the Sharpies are on.If sharpies are hammering a game and the Public is hammering the opposite side.I want to be on the sharpie side everytime!
1) Real handicappers don't give a shit on where the sheep are putting their money. They cap the games and bet the ones that have a large enough discrepancy between their spread and the posted line to warrant laying hard earned money on it.
2) How do you know that the "sharpies are hammering a game and the Public is hammering the opposite side"??? Cause the consensus #'s don't have an asterisk displaying where only the "sharpies" are laying their $$$.
I love this example from way back...how's it all work?? somebody mentioned the public loses, and they do, as much as they win...
It's the skim off the top that keeps the books healthy...as examples, i've taken the top office pools, which could be somewhat similar to a bookie operations...you don't think wagerline's here just for the advertising money, do you?? but that's beside the point...
anyway, as many, including myself have mentioned, the books win some lop-sided ones and they lose some, but it all washes out the same...notice the percents and losses (gains)..
the big daddy office pool here is LegendZ Vegas Super Bowl Getaway: Group Record WLT:27857-26962-1758 Percent:50.82% Units:-881520
2nd is "Beat the Prez 5-pick Group Record WLT:11514-11219-733 Percent:50.65% Units:-409860
3rd is $2500 Football Challenge 5-picks Group Record WLT:4467-4318-269 Percent:50.85% Units:-28280
4th is NFL Challenge Group Record WLT:2551-2396-149 Percent:51.57% Units:-8460
5th is Fast Eddie's 5-pick Group Record WLT:1925-1921-112 Percent:50.05% Units:-18810
Then there's NFL Game Day O/U WLT:1026-1019-73 Percent:50.17% Units:-47770
Finally, you get to one beating 'da House, Wagelinians Group Record WLT:204-163-11 Percent:55.59% Units:11950
okay, 1 in 10 might lose a nickel...
The similarities are obvious, the number is always around 50%, and whatever handle they have coming in, these are their realistic percentages...Now true, everyone doesnt bet the same amount, but they forever have been able to count on us winning one, then losing one...That is their secret to success, their life's blood...
All they gotta do is please half of the people all of the time...like Abe Lincoln said...
in my humble opinion...
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I love this example from way back...how's it all work?? somebody mentioned the public loses, and they do, as much as they win...
It's the skim off the top that keeps the books healthy...as examples, i've taken the top office pools, which could be somewhat similar to a bookie operations...you don't think wagerline's here just for the advertising money, do you?? but that's beside the point...
anyway, as many, including myself have mentioned, the books win some lop-sided ones and they lose some, but it all washes out the same...notice the percents and losses (gains)..
the big daddy office pool here is LegendZ Vegas Super Bowl Getaway: Group Record WLT:27857-26962-1758 Percent:50.82% Units:-881520
2nd is "Beat the Prez 5-pick Group Record WLT:11514-11219-733 Percent:50.65% Units:-409860
3rd is $2500 Football Challenge 5-picks Group Record WLT:4467-4318-269 Percent:50.85% Units:-28280
4th is NFL Challenge Group Record WLT:2551-2396-149 Percent:51.57% Units:-8460
5th is Fast Eddie's 5-pick Group Record WLT:1925-1921-112 Percent:50.05% Units:-18810
Then there's NFL Game Day O/U WLT:1026-1019-73 Percent:50.17% Units:-47770
Finally, you get to one beating 'da House, Wagelinians Group Record WLT:204-163-11 Percent:55.59% Units:11950
okay, 1 in 10 might lose a nickel...
The similarities are obvious, the number is always around 50%, and whatever handle they have coming in, these are their realistic percentages...Now true, everyone doesnt bet the same amount, but they forever have been able to count on us winning one, then losing one...That is their secret to success, their life's blood...
All they gotta do is please half of the people all of the time...like Abe Lincoln said...
Honestly folks. Pretend for a second that you know nothing about sports betting . . . . and after reading all of these posts, this shouldn't be too hard of an exercise for you.
The Lines for next Sunday's games (barring serious injuries) were already set before yesterday's (10/26) games were played. How do you think they come out so quick? Do you really think these people know the outcomes of the games and how the "public" will bet each side? If you do, then please bet through me . . . . I'll even give you 5% juice because you're clueless if you think that.
In any one game (SD/BUF for example) you will see a large quantity on SD and they lose, and everyone thinks a "theory is being born". Well, how about the Jets @ San Diego this year on MNF. The Bolts had 90%+ on them and who won and covered? I'll give you a hint, the game wasn't even close and Favre wasn't happy.
Corporations OWN the betting books now. Yes! And they're not going to "gamble" or get caught in a "scandal". If you believe "Vegas" knows the outcome of the games then you're implicating that the EVERYONE INCLUDING THE COUNTRY'S LAW ENFORCEMENT DEPARTMENTS ARE IN ON THE GIG OR COMPLETELY STUPID! Use some sense people. Are games fixed? Of course . . . . Hello!!!! There have been arrests for such activities. Is "Vegas" involved? . . . . don't be a complete moron.
7 weeks is hardly close to a large enough sample size to conclude anything. Give me 5,000 games of 80%+ or more on 1 side, then let's compare the numbers, then we can talk.
The "public" doesn't lose every game. If you flew to Vegas with you friends, drank it up, hit the tables, and lost EVERY bet, would you come back again, again, & again???? Of course not, they'll bleed the money out of you. And, believe it or not, even win sometimes to give you the idea that coming back will create the same result. Have fun, bet within your limits, and have fun. If you follow those rules, gambling will treat you well. But, don't fall for these "theories".
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Honestly folks. Pretend for a second that you know nothing about sports betting . . . . and after reading all of these posts, this shouldn't be too hard of an exercise for you.
The Lines for next Sunday's games (barring serious injuries) were already set before yesterday's (10/26) games were played. How do you think they come out so quick? Do you really think these people know the outcomes of the games and how the "public" will bet each side? If you do, then please bet through me . . . . I'll even give you 5% juice because you're clueless if you think that.
In any one game (SD/BUF for example) you will see a large quantity on SD and they lose, and everyone thinks a "theory is being born". Well, how about the Jets @ San Diego this year on MNF. The Bolts had 90%+ on them and who won and covered? I'll give you a hint, the game wasn't even close and Favre wasn't happy.
Corporations OWN the betting books now. Yes! And they're not going to "gamble" or get caught in a "scandal". If you believe "Vegas" knows the outcome of the games then you're implicating that the EVERYONE INCLUDING THE COUNTRY'S LAW ENFORCEMENT DEPARTMENTS ARE IN ON THE GIG OR COMPLETELY STUPID! Use some sense people. Are games fixed? Of course . . . . Hello!!!! There have been arrests for such activities. Is "Vegas" involved? . . . . don't be a complete moron.
7 weeks is hardly close to a large enough sample size to conclude anything. Give me 5,000 games of 80%+ or more on 1 side, then let's compare the numbers, then we can talk.
The "public" doesn't lose every game. If you flew to Vegas with you friends, drank it up, hit the tables, and lost EVERY bet, would you come back again, again, & again???? Of course not, they'll bleed the money out of you. And, believe it or not, even win sometimes to give you the idea that coming back will create the same result. Have fun, bet within your limits, and have fun. If you follow those rules, gambling will treat you well. But, don't fall for these "theories".
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