Miami was huge being that I won money on them and they are my fav team. Pennington just plays smart and makes plays.
Dallas played some great, D and was a nice cover.
Pittsburgh, was my loser. Gmen dominated that second half, nothing to be mad about just made a shit bet, underestimating a simply great coached ballclub in New york.
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2-1 today ill take it...
Miami was huge being that I won money on them and they are my fav team. Pennington just plays smart and makes plays.
Dallas played some great, D and was a nice cover.
Pittsburgh, was my loser. Gmen dominated that second half, nothing to be mad about just made a shit bet, underestimating a simply great coached ballclub in New york.
You must take line movements into consideration when fading the public.
Todays the correct plays would have been Miami -1, Arizona + 5 and Seattle +5.
Pitts was not a play if you were sticking with the system...
I don't know why we even bother trying to convice the "public" that line movements and betting percentages mean more than they think...We need them to lose so we can win anyways.
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You must take line movements into consideration when fading the public.
Todays the correct plays would have been Miami -1, Arizona + 5 and Seattle +5.
Pitts was not a play if you were sticking with the system...
I don't know why we even bother trying to convice the "public" that line movements and betting percentages mean more than they think...We need them to lose so we can win anyways.
You must take line movements into consideration when fading the public.
Todays the correct plays would have been Miami -1, Arizona + 5 and Seattle +5.
Pitts was not a play if you were sticking with the system...
I don't know why we even bother trying to convice the "public" that line movements and betting percentages mean more than they think...We need them to lose so we can win anyways.
Ain't it the truth...
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Quote Originally Posted by Fobbyfob:
You must take line movements into consideration when fading the public.
Todays the correct plays would have been Miami -1, Arizona + 5 and Seattle +5.
Pitts was not a play if you were sticking with the system...
I don't know why we even bother trying to convice the "public" that line movements and betting percentages mean more than they think...We need them to lose so we can win anyways.
Well, I the public got smashed again in the Buffalo at miami game. Congrats all, as I took the fins and got a W, with my fav team.
My final card today was
Miami plus 1 - $100
Cowboys mins 1.5 $100
Pitts-3 $100
So plus 90 for the day not bad, only bet ohio state yesterday at for a dollar, so my first losing weekend of the year minus 20 bucks.
But anyway at least a 2-1 NFL record. And more importantly the huge public fade theory hit again for a record 8th week.
you lying sack of sht, u only seem to point out the games where it works, the most lopsided games in terms of money were redskins over detroit and baltimore over oakland, and guess what the public got both of those right....you haven't proven a thing since you started this useless thread....basically your retarded theory is guess which games will go against the public and which ones wont...you aren't bringing any novel info to this forum so stop misleading these poor people...otherwise start a thread with ur nfl picks and keep a record, and let's see how u do at the end of the season
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Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:
Well, I the public got smashed again in the Buffalo at miami game. Congrats all, as I took the fins and got a W, with my fav team.
My final card today was
Miami plus 1 - $100
Cowboys mins 1.5 $100
Pitts-3 $100
So plus 90 for the day not bad, only bet ohio state yesterday at for a dollar, so my first losing weekend of the year minus 20 bucks.
But anyway at least a 2-1 NFL record. And more importantly the huge public fade theory hit again for a record 8th week.
you lying sack of sht, u only seem to point out the games where it works, the most lopsided games in terms of money were redskins over detroit and baltimore over oakland, and guess what the public got both of those right....you haven't proven a thing since you started this useless thread....basically your retarded theory is guess which games will go against the public and which ones wont...you aren't bringing any novel info to this forum so stop misleading these poor people...otherwise start a thread with ur nfl picks and keep a record, and let's see how u do at the end of the season
You must take line movements into consideration when fading the public.
Todays the correct plays would have been Miami -1, Arizona + 5 and Seattle +5.
Pitts was not a play if you were sticking with the system...
I don't know why we even bother trying to convice the "public" that line movements and betting percentages mean more than they think...We need them to lose so we can win anyways.
We have a winner!You are correct sir been trying to tell everyone this for a week this is why Oak and Det did not apply for me.
Again if you fade the public you have to use line movements among other things to arrive at the high % picks fading the public which do win at a high %!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by Fobbyfob:
You must take line movements into consideration when fading the public.
Todays the correct plays would have been Miami -1, Arizona + 5 and Seattle +5.
Pitts was not a play if you were sticking with the system...
I don't know why we even bother trying to convice the "public" that line movements and betting percentages mean more than they think...We need them to lose so we can win anyways.
We have a winner!You are correct sir been trying to tell everyone this for a week this is why Oak and Det did not apply for me.
Again if you fade the public you have to use line movements among other things to arrive at the high % picks fading the public which do win at a high %!!!
I'm shocked to read the lack of knowledge on how lines are created and how sports books operate.
What else is incredible is the conspiracy theories that some create.
If it comforts you to use this betting strategy, then by all mean, please do. There are no conspiracies against bettors and Vegas could care less how you decide to make a bet... they simply want you to make a bet.
When the line or juice begins to move, that's when you know money has flowed to one side or the other. Consensus or betting percentages mean absolutely nothing.
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I'm shocked to read the lack of knowledge on how lines are created and how sports books operate.
What else is incredible is the conspiracy theories that some create.
If it comforts you to use this betting strategy, then by all mean, please do. There are no conspiracies against bettors and Vegas could care less how you decide to make a bet... they simply want you to make a bet.
When the line or juice begins to move, that's when you know money has flowed to one side or the other. Consensus or betting percentages mean absolutely nothing.
still very early but here are some week 8 percentages from my book, sportsbook.com:
Ravens-7 90!!!!!
Bills-1 94%!!!!!!!!!
Pats -7 92%
Panthers -4.5 87%
Skins minus 7.5 91%
San Fran minus 5 83 %
Cincy plus 9.5 80%
Now it is only early, early wed morning but these are some unbelievable percentages, and if they stay this way, there could be a lot of plays this weekend!!!
Ravens-7 90!!!!! Take Oakland
Bills-1 94%!!!!!!!!! Take Miami
Pats -7 92% Take St L. PUSH
Panthers -4.5 87% Take Arizona
Skins minus 7.5 91% Take Detroit
San Fran minus 5 83 % Take Seattle
Cincy plus 9.5 80% Tkae Houston
Would have been 4-2-1 on your own theory not too shabby!!
depending on the lines (detroit i saw at 8, also saw NE at 7 12/) you could have been 5-1-1
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Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:
still very early but here are some week 8 percentages from my book, sportsbook.com:
Ravens-7 90!!!!!
Bills-1 94%!!!!!!!!!
Pats -7 92%
Panthers -4.5 87%
Skins minus 7.5 91%
San Fran minus 5 83 %
Cincy plus 9.5 80%
Now it is only early, early wed morning but these are some unbelievable percentages, and if they stay this way, there could be a lot of plays this weekend!!!
Ravens-7 90!!!!! Take Oakland
Bills-1 94%!!!!!!!!! Take Miami
Pats -7 92% Take St L. PUSH
Panthers -4.5 87% Take Arizona
Skins minus 7.5 91% Take Detroit
San Fran minus 5 83 % Take Seattle
Cincy plus 9.5 80% Tkae Houston
Would have been 4-2-1 on your own theory not too shabby!!
depending on the lines (detroit i saw at 8, also saw NE at 7 12/) you could have been 5-1-1
I also find it amazing that people persist in believing that casinos and sports books are in the gambling business. That insinuates that they gamble to make a profit. They don't. They're in the business of statistics and mathematics.
Their customers are the gamblers. Casinos and sports books never gamble with their money. Wouldn't you rather take 10% of $1 million and guarantee yourself a profit rather than risk the outcome of a sporting event and possibly lose that $1 million?
If they get that wrong once or twice on a fluke play they'd have some pretty unhappy investors... not to mention having to close up shop. They're interested in guaranteed profits and that's what the vig is.
Please stop persisting that a sports book is trying to fool you and that oddsmakers set the lines to trap the betting public. It's complete nonsense. They're simply interested in the vig and getting you to place a bet.
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I also find it amazing that people persist in believing that casinos and sports books are in the gambling business. That insinuates that they gamble to make a profit. They don't. They're in the business of statistics and mathematics.
Their customers are the gamblers. Casinos and sports books never gamble with their money. Wouldn't you rather take 10% of $1 million and guarantee yourself a profit rather than risk the outcome of a sporting event and possibly lose that $1 million?
If they get that wrong once or twice on a fluke play they'd have some pretty unhappy investors... not to mention having to close up shop. They're interested in guaranteed profits and that's what the vig is.
Please stop persisting that a sports book is trying to fool you and that oddsmakers set the lines to trap the betting public. It's complete nonsense. They're simply interested in the vig and getting you to place a bet.
still very early but here are some week 8 percentages from my book, sportsbook.com:
Ravens-7 90!!!!!
Bills-1 94%!!!!!!!!!
Pats -7 92%
Panthers -4.5 87%
Skins minus 7.5 91%
San Fran minus 5 83 %
Cincy plus 9.5 80%
Now it is only early, early wed morning but these are some unbelievable percentages, and if they stay this way, there could be a lot of plays this weekend!!!
Ravens-7 90!!!!! Take Oakland
Bills-1 94%!!!!!!!!! Take Miami
Pats -7 92% Take St L. PUSH
Panthers -4.5 87% Take Arizona
Skins minus 7.5 91% Take Detroit
San Fran minus 5 83 % Take Seattle
Cincy plus 9.5 80% Tkae Houston
Would have been 4-2-1 on your own theory not too shabby!!
depending on the lines (detroit i saw at 8, also saw NE at 7 12/) you could have been 5-1-1
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Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:
still very early but here are some week 8 percentages from my book, sportsbook.com:
Ravens-7 90!!!!!
Bills-1 94%!!!!!!!!!
Pats -7 92%
Panthers -4.5 87%
Skins minus 7.5 91%
San Fran minus 5 83 %
Cincy plus 9.5 80%
Now it is only early, early wed morning but these are some unbelievable percentages, and if they stay this way, there could be a lot of plays this weekend!!!
Ravens-7 90!!!!! Take Oakland
Bills-1 94%!!!!!!!!! Take Miami
Pats -7 92% Take St L. PUSH
Panthers -4.5 87% Take Arizona
Skins minus 7.5 91% Take Detroit
San Fran minus 5 83 % Take Seattle
Cincy plus 9.5 80% Tkae Houston
Would have been 4-2-1 on your own theory not too shabby!!
depending on the lines (detroit i saw at 8, also saw NE at 7 12/) you could have been 5-1-1
this weekend miami plus 1 $75 Pittsburgh minus 2.5 or 3 $100 and Dallas minus 2? $50
good luck everyone
the big public fade is the buffalo at miami game, with the fins being my favorite team thanks for pounding buffalo public GO finssssss
Kashl2008- Im lying Lying? check the date and the picks, what are you talking about. Remember I do not play every lopsided percentage game, I take other factors into account. I was away all weekend and the only difference I made was I played all three of these games for a dollar.
this weekend miami plus 1 $75 Pittsburgh minus 2.5 or 3 $100 and Dallas minus 2? $50
good luck everyone
the big public fade is the buffalo at miami game, with the fins being my favorite team thanks for pounding buffalo public GO finssssss
Kashl2008- Im lying Lying? check the date and the picks, what are you talking about. Remember I do not play every lopsided percentage game, I take other factors into account. I was away all weekend and the only difference I made was I played all three of these games for a dollar.
this weekend miami plus 1 $75 Pittsburgh minus 2.5 or 3 $100 and Dallas minus 2? $50
good luck everyone
the big public fade is the buffalo at miami game, with the fins being my favorite team thanks for pounding buffalo public GO finssssss
Kashl2008- Im lying Lying? check the date and the picks, what are you talking about. Remember I do not play every lopsided percentage game, I take other factors into account. I was away all weekend and the only difference I made was I played all three of these games for a dollar.
this weekend miami plus 1 $75 Pittsburgh minus 2.5 or 3 $100 and Dallas minus 2? $50
good luck everyone
the big public fade is the buffalo at miami game, with the fins being my favorite team thanks for pounding buffalo public GO finssssss
Kashl2008- Im lying Lying? check the date and the picks, what are you talking about. Remember I do not play every lopsided percentage game, I take other factors into account. I was away all weekend and the only difference I made was I played all three of these games for a dollar.
do not no why you are hating on me so bad. I came here with my theory and in games I have posted on here in two weeks my record is 5-1.
Last week posted my GB, Oakland, and Patriot plays which went 3-0.
And this week Miami, dallas, and Pitts which went 2-1.
How am I lying, as I have pointed out making all these picks before the last two nfl sundays
Tonight here again Kashl2008 note the time of this pick. My money is on the Indianapolis Colts at plus 4.
My reasoning
1. 62 percent on the Titans. Titans should run the ball down the Colts throat, Indy shouldnt be able to score, so you know the opposite happens. Remember this is the NFL, and the unpredictable prevails on a regular basis.
2. Colts are pissed coming of an embarassing loss. Titans are a very good team, but are not going 14-2.
I do not know what else to say, once again Kashl2008 at 12:42 pm my pick Indianapolis at plus the 4. So if they win and I improve to 6-1 with my posted plays, once again you might as well accuse me of lying.
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do not no why you are hating on me so bad. I came here with my theory and in games I have posted on here in two weeks my record is 5-1.
Last week posted my GB, Oakland, and Patriot plays which went 3-0.
And this week Miami, dallas, and Pitts which went 2-1.
How am I lying, as I have pointed out making all these picks before the last two nfl sundays
Tonight here again Kashl2008 note the time of this pick. My money is on the Indianapolis Colts at plus 4.
My reasoning
1. 62 percent on the Titans. Titans should run the ball down the Colts throat, Indy shouldnt be able to score, so you know the opposite happens. Remember this is the NFL, and the unpredictable prevails on a regular basis.
2. Colts are pissed coming of an embarassing loss. Titans are a very good team, but are not going 14-2.
I do not know what else to say, once again Kashl2008 at 12:42 pm my pick Indianapolis at plus the 4. So if they win and I improve to 6-1 with my posted plays, once again you might as well accuse me of lying.
maybe I have overlooked something, but I thought the systems was to pick the opposite when the public was on a team by 80% or more?? Titans only getting 62% yet you are taking them?? maybe I have missed something.
Plus, does this system seem to work with ML? The poster above you (newty25) says the colts are getting 81% on M/L. Does that mean Tenn M/L would be a good play??
Thanks!
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collegegambler,
maybe I have overlooked something, but I thought the systems was to pick the opposite when the public was on a team by 80% or more?? Titans only getting 62% yet you are taking them?? maybe I have missed something.
Plus, does this system seem to work with ML? The poster above you (newty25) says the colts are getting 81% on M/L. Does that mean Tenn M/L would be a good play??
Collegegambler, I'm not hating on you at all. If it's working for you and you like it, I think you should continue betting it. And, there's nothing wrong with you spreading the work on a strategy. That's what the forums are here for.
I just don't like it when people spread misinformation. The sports books are not making a killing from the public betting the wrong side of the action. That's a pretty silly statement, IMO.
They're making a killing from people betting and by taking the vig. They have absolutely no stake in the bet other than the vig and facilitating a forum for bettors to place bets with each other. Sports books don't gamble. They're in the business of making profit off of a sure thing... it's called the vig.
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Collegegambler, I'm not hating on you at all. If it's working for you and you like it, I think you should continue betting it. And, there's nothing wrong with you spreading the work on a strategy. That's what the forums are here for.
I just don't like it when people spread misinformation. The sports books are not making a killing from the public betting the wrong side of the action. That's a pretty silly statement, IMO.
They're making a killing from people betting and by taking the vig. They have absolutely no stake in the bet other than the vig and facilitating a forum for bettors to place bets with each other. Sports books don't gamble. They're in the business of making profit off of a sure thing... it's called the vig.
I agree with BrerTiger. Your systems was to go against the public when 80% or more.
Giant was 51% and you pick Pitt and you know what happened
Only 53% on Titans now
Tennessee is 6-0 ATS this year and very much underrated
Indy record is 3-3 and also 3-3 ATS and could have easily been 1-5 and 1-5 ATS if Minnesota and Houston didnt blow it.
This is the first game this year that Indy is underdog. I think maybe Vegas finally realized that Indy is not as good as they were the last couple years.
I like your systems but only against 75% or higher
Go with the 6-0 ATS tonight buddy! BOL
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I agree with BrerTiger. Your systems was to go against the public when 80% or more.
Giant was 51% and you pick Pitt and you know what happened
Only 53% on Titans now
Tennessee is 6-0 ATS this year and very much underrated
Indy record is 3-3 and also 3-3 ATS and could have easily been 1-5 and 1-5 ATS if Minnesota and Houston didnt blow it.
This is the first game this year that Indy is underdog. I think maybe Vegas finally realized that Indy is not as good as they were the last couple years.
I like your systems but only against 75% or higher
Tonight is tough, but Tenn is 6-0 against the spread. At the end of each year the best team goes about 11-5 against the spread. Very rarely 12-4 or better against the spread. So I do not see how Tenn will continue to cover. Everything points to a Tenn blowout win tonight, and that is why i will bet opposite and take the Colts.
Indy Colts tonight fellas +4 good luck either side.
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Tonight is tough, but Tenn is 6-0 against the spread. At the end of each year the best team goes about 11-5 against the spread. Very rarely 12-4 or better against the spread. So I do not see how Tenn will continue to cover. Everything points to a Tenn blowout win tonight, and that is why i will bet opposite and take the Colts.
Indy Colts tonight fellas +4 good luck either side.
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GO finssssss
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