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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how

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Posted: #226
btw i love the clippers by 2 in utah tomm and gs at home by 5 and a half against philly...possibly under in clips game too but just a lean on that one
 
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Posted: #227
MAVIN UR THE MAN
 
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Posted: #228
The line on second half totals moved to 104 - a point up. Dallas shot over 37% in the first half making 4-10 3 pointers. OKC shot over 40% making 1 out of 10 3 pointers. OKC rebounding 7 more than the visitors and -8 points is a very sharp line. Too many risk factors here. Staying away from a second half as well. Leans? Under and Dallas+8. But that is strictly for my research purposes only testing my own perceptions of what is expected. 
 
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Posted: #229
BigUnit, GL

maxbo - tomorrow's games are way more attractive

allaboutsports, manutd, CoverMyLosses  

milosjumper7 - 
 
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Posted: #230
blackjungle - 
 
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Posted: #231
Quote Originally Posted by FinesFan:


Please don't post here like you know sh it about investment, if you prefer a ROI of 1 % instead of a ROI of 5 %, you are an idiot.


You don't understand it.
One season of NBA has a certain amount of games, you only have limited opportunities to put down wagers.

Let's make a realistic and simple example.
Guy A,B both with 100 unit banks.
There are ~1.200 NBA games during one season.

One guy finds only 50 bets and places 10u wagers each with a ROI of 5%. At the end of the season he has won 10*100*0.05 = 25u.

The other guy finds 50 bets and makes those 10u plays at a ROI of 5% and 500 bets and places 5u wagers with a ROI of 2%.
it's 25u and 500*5*0.02 = 50u in the end of the season.

Obviously the 2nd guy is the better capper, despite having a lower ROI, he could just limit himself to take those 5% ROI bets, but he choses to also take the bets with smaller edges.

Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

You said it yourself - ROI is more important when your bankroll is limited. That's a point. And I never heard of anyone anywhere risking 10 Million to win 100K. That would be stupid. Trust me, if you had 10 Million, you would never risk it to make 100K. Too big of a risk. Same as you would not wager 100$ to win 1$.


That is not how it works.
You are not risking 10m at once, your risk can be very small sums at low edges that is all what happens.

Profit is what counts and not ROI, if you can take smaller edges and safely make more profit in the end, you definitely should do it.
 
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Posted: #232
Great thread and nice start SportsMavin. It prompted me to join. Hopefully we can have some good discussions. 








 
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Posted: #233
Quote Originally Posted by melosjumper7:

btw i love the clippers by 2 in utah tomm and gs at home by 5 and a half against philly...possibly under in clips game too but just a lean on that one

How can you love a team in a game tomorrow playing a back-to-back, 3 in 4 nights against a team with a 9-3 home record? I am not saying it cannot show up as a play, but for me something drastic would have to happen to play the Clips tomorrow. 

I am curious to what makes you see this. I am hoping for some good dialog/learning in this thread if SportsMavin allows. If not, I will just follow along and read as I can always learn more myself. 
 
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Posted: #234
Ok first to explain to Old-Jax why i like the Clippers:
-Utah has lost 3 outta last 5 at home
-Utah only has 2 wins in last 7 games
-Mo williams is out****
-Clippers if they win tonight have won 15 straight games and are the hottest team in the NBA right now
-Clippers have possibly best depth in the NBA along with KNICKS AND SPURS (i have prob forgot a good depth team but that's ok) which is why i think playing 3 outta 4 days will not effect them quite like it would other teams
-Utah lost 2 outta 3 with Mo Williams gone and barely beat Orlando who were without Big Baby Glen Davis
-I have to roll with a team that has won 15 straight....kinda like rolling with the SPURS at the beg of the season
-I really think Mo Williams being out will be huge in this game, hopefully Blake Griffin and Deandre Jordan can shutdown the 2 good big buys inside for the Jazz

With that being said Utah is an extremely good home team still and It is the NBA so anything can happen but thats why I am rolling with LA.  

I love Golden State tomm too...
I could wake up tomm and feel diff about the Clips but for right now I am rolling with them with the line only at 2...

 
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Posted: #235
Quote Originally Posted by fiire:



You don't understand it.
One season of NBA has a certain amount of games, you only have limited opportunities to put down wagers.

Let's make a realistic and simple example.
Guy A,B both with 100 unit banks.
There are ~1.200 NBA games during one season.

One guy finds only 50 bets and places 10u wagers each with a ROI of 5%. At the end of the season he has won 10*100*0.05 = 25u.

The other guy finds 50 bets and makes those 10u plays at a ROI of 5% and 500 bets and places 5u wagers with a ROI of 2%.
it's 25u and 500*5*0.02 = 50u in the end of the season.

Obviously the 2nd guy is the better capper, despite having a lower ROI, he could just limit himself to take those 5% ROI bets, but he choses to also take the bets with smaller edges.

Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

You said it yourself - ROI is more important when your bankroll is limited. That's a point. And I never heard of anyone anywhere risking 10 Million to win 100K. That would be stupid. Trust me, if you had 10 Million, you would never risk it to make 100K. Too big of a risk. Same as you would not wager 100$ to win 1$.


That is not how it works.
You are not risking 10m at once, your risk can be very small sums at low edges that is all what happens.

Profit is what counts and not ROI, if you can take smaller edges and safely make more profit in the end, you definitely should do it.
With all due respect - if I'd ask you to give a living example of kind of bets you're talking about in regard of the odds and the quantities - you wouldn't be able to do so. Your formula - as I understand it - applies only if all the games would be won. Otherwise one loss suffered would turn all your profits from other games into a non factor. The importance of Return On Investment is easy to nullify with unlimited funds. Otherwise, there are more than dozen systems that are more profitable than the one you have suggested and trying to defend. If you'd like to further discuss the matter - I suggest you chart it down with probable string of plays and I will prove you immediately that with the same amount of the funds used - I can put up more profitable system using the same amount of games your string will contain. 
 
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Posted: #236
Quote Originally Posted by Old-Jax:

Great thread and nice start SportsMavin. It prompted me to join. Hopefully we can have some good discussions. 

Discussions about the betting systems and the methodology are more than welcome
 
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Posted: #237
Quote Originally Posted by melosjumper7:

Ok first to explain to Old-Jax why i like the Clippers:
-Utah has lost 3 outta last 5 at home
-Utah only has 2 wins in last 7 games
-Mo williams is out****
-Clippers if they win tonight have won 15 straight games and are the hottest team in the NBA right now
-Clippers have possibly best depth in the NBA along with KNICKS AND SPURS (i have prob forgot a good depth team but that's ok) which is why i think playing 3 outta 4 days will not effect them quite like it would other teams
-Utah lost 2 outta 3 with Mo Williams gone and barely beat Orlando who were without Big Baby Glen Davis
-I have to roll with a team that has won 15 straight....kinda like rolling with the SPURS at the beg of the season
-I really think Mo Williams being out will be huge in this game, hopefully Blake Griffin and Deandre Jordan can shutdown the 2 good big buys inside for the Jazz

With that being said Utah is an extremely good home team still and It is the NBA so anything can happen but thats why I am rolling with LA.  

I love Golden State tomm too...
I could wake up tomm and feel diff about the Clips but for right now I am rolling with them with the line only at 2...

And that is the reason they are called leans. Otherwise, there are easier games on board tomorrow and I'd love to hear yours and others opinion about them as well. If I'll succeed to create a community of betters who intelligently discuss their leans before the game without fearing constructive criticism - I will feel that I can really make the difference. We can make the difference.GL
 
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Posted: #238
Oh no i couldn't agree more with you Mavin...i would put all my ideas on the games as leans until its actual game time...and haha yeah his return on investment talk didn't include losses in any type of way from fiire....I am very excited to hear your input on the games tomm..I have a lot to learn in the betting game but am willing and optimistic.  Thanks for all your honest input on everything Mavin    I am having thoughts on Nuggets beating Mavs on road after the game they just went through
 
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Posted: #239
The Thing happened again on Thursday. After scoring 107 points in a first half the teams combined for 76 points in a second playing like a practice game to achieve the Under 189! Noted!
 
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Posted: #240
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

Your formula - as I understand it - applies only if all the games would be won. Otherwise one loss suffered would turn all your profits from other games into a non factor.


What are you talking about??? I'm talking about standart bets on Spread & Totals.

5% ROI = win rate of ~53.8% on 1.952 odds
2% ROI = win rate of ~52.26% on 1.952 odds

Fact is there are ~1200 regular season games in the NBA.
Fact is you will skip many of those games if your goal is to have a high ROI, because you'll need a higher win % to achieve it.
Fact is that means you won't maximize the profit during one season.

That is all. I know basic math is not easy to understand for some of you ;(
 
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Posted: #241
Besides that you are also confusing Return of Investment (ROI) and Risk of Ruin (ROR) which are two completely different things.

If you are betting odds of 10+ with 10u of your bankroll 100u at a 10% ROI your ROR is still a garbage load higher compared to a guy who is betting the same amounts at odds of ~2 at a ROI of 2%.

ROR is all about money management and has absloutely nothing to do with ROI, if you can maximize your profit at a reasonable ROR you should alwas do it, because ROI won't buy you anything but profit will.
 
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Posted: #242
SportsMavin you did it again man!! boy i love ya! thanks for the under 189 pick! and i see ur lean of dallas+10 also hit! way to go!! love ya. will check back tomorow to see if u have any picks. Keep it up!      
 
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Posted: #243
SportsMavin you are petty badass,I mean you rock
 
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Posted: #244
Man I feel dumb for not taking this man's leans!
 
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Posted: #245
Mavin,

well, I did play under on both games.... thanks!

And I'm anxious to see what you have for us today... 


I just hope you'll post it a little earlier though... I'm +6 hours here in Croatia... :)


 
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Posted: #246
(that's +6 hours your ET)
 
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Posted: #247
cheers to you Marv
 
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Posted: #248
@SportsMavin
You're a beast, man!...  Your leans are far better than most cappers picks here. It is like - hey guys, it's not gonna be a 20 point landslide win - so it stay as a lean..... Well, I prefer cappers like you anytime over those who're running to post their picks just because they drove thru 3 green traffic lights while thinking of the games.. (like myself...)   
So, I'm already rating you among the best ever here. The main reason - you're an educator first of all. In last couple of a days I learned about capping more than I did in last few years!

Keep the good work up and please stay here!
 
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Posted: #249
Quote Originally Posted by fiire:



What are you talking about??? I'm talking about standart bets on Spread & Totals.

5% ROI = win rate of ~53.8% on 1.952 odds
2% ROI = win rate of ~52.26% on 1.952 odds

Fact is there are ~1200 regular season games in the NBA.
Fact is you will skip many of those games if your goal is to have a high ROI, because you'll need a higher win % to achieve it.
Fact is that means you won't maximize the profit during one season.

That is all. I know basic math is not easy to understand for some of you ;(
That's ridiculous. You mean you know your math and can't figure that winning depends on high percentage of successful picks rather than the number of them? If you're afraid the league has # number of the plays - play high probability games only doubling your wagers and the result will be same or better because less juice will be wasted!
 
 
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Posted: #250
Quote Originally Posted by fiire:



You don't understand it.
One season of NBA has a certain amount of games, you only have limited opportunities to put down wagers.

Let's make a realistic and simple example.
Guy A,B both with 100 unit banks.
There are ~1.200 NBA games during one season.

One guy finds only 50 bets and places 10u wagers each with a ROI of 5%. At the end of the season he has won 10*100*0.05 = 25u.

The other guy finds 50 bets and makes those 10u plays at a ROI of 5% and 500 bets and places 5u wagers with a ROI of 2%.
it's 25u and 500*5*0.02 = 50u in the end of the season.

Obviously the 2nd guy is the better capper, despite having a lower ROI, he could just limit himself to take those 5% ROI bets, but he choses to also take the bets with smaller edges.

Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

You said it yourself - ROI is more important when your bankroll is limited. That's a point. And I never heard of anyone anywhere risking 10 Million to win 100K. That would be stupid. Trust me, if you had 10 Million, you would never risk it to make 100K. Too big of a risk. Same as you would not wager 100$ to win 1$.


That is not how it works.
You are not risking 10m at once, your risk can be very small sums at low edges that is all what happens.

Profit is what counts and not ROI, if you can take smaller edges and safely make more profit in the end, you definitely should do it.

I think you just don't understand maths..

It is simple to understand than a ROI of 5% isn't the same as a ROI of 1%... Would you prefer to risk 1 000$ and win 50$ instead of risking 10 000$ to make 100$ ? 
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