The second installment of this three-game interleague series gets underway on Tuesday with the Philadelphia Phillies hosting the Los Angeles Angels.
Philadelphia won Monday’s contest, as it continues to play great baseball as the season winds down. Will the Phillies take care of business again, or can the Angels secure a bounce-back win in this game? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Angels vs. Phillies on Tuesday, August 29.
Angels vs Phillies odds
Angels vs Phillies predictions
Right-hander Michael Lorenzen takes the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he should be a good candidate to back. The deadline acquisition has put together a strong campaign highlighted by a no-hitter, posting a 3.69 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through 22 starts.
Lorenzen also ranks in the 61st percentile in chase rate. You can currently find his strikeout prop as low as 4.5 at FanDuel, a number he has surpassed in three of his past five starts.
Meanwhile, it’s been yet another disappointing campaign for the Los Angeles Angels, who are going to miss the playoffs again despite rostering two of the best players in baseball. Right now, Los Angeles ranks near the middle of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, and batting average.
With that said, this lineup’s biggest weakness is avoiding strikeouts. Entering this game, the Angels rank 24th in K% when facing right-handed pitching. Looking at Tuesday’s projected starting lineup, seven of the nine hitters own a K% north of 23% this year.
These strikeout woes are likely to continue against Lorenzen. In his lone career start against Los Angeles, the right-hander collected seven punchouts in just five innings pitched.
Looking at it from the other side, this current Angels lineup possesses a fade-worthy 28.6 K% through 49 career plate appearances against Lorenzen.
My best bet: Michael Lorenzen Over 4.5 strikeouts (-154)
Angels vs Phillies same-game parlay
Michael Lorenzen Over 4.5 strikeouts (-154)
Under 9.5 (-110)
Phillies moneyline (-158)
While Lorenzen should be a good candidate to bet on tonight, left-hander Tyler Anderson could also put together a strong performance for the Angels. There is no denying that Anderson’s year has been difficult, but he is coming off a strong outing against the Cincinnati Reds, a game in which the southpaw allowed just one earned run on three hits through 4 2/3 innings pitched.
If Anderson doesn’t get shelled, we could see the Phillies secure a victory in a game that stays under this 9.5 total. Philadelphia paces Los Angeles in every pitching and hitting category across the board, with the exception of total home runs hit. The Phillies have also won four straight games and eight of their past 11.
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Angels vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Phillies opened as a –172 favorite and have since been bet down to their current price of –158. This small line movement is not all that shocking given that Lorenzen’s underlying metrics suggest that his relatively solid surface-level stats are unsustainable. The right-hander currently ranks in the bottom half of the league in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG.
With that said, the market has over-adjusted to that sentiment, especially considering that Anderson is worse than Lorenzen in every metric across the board. Meanwhile, Philadelphia poses the clear-hitting advantage in this matchup.
That brings us to the total, which opened at 9.5 and has since stayed put. I would be shocked if this number reached double-digits before first pitch.
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Trend to know
Lorenzen has recorded five or more strikeouts in three of his past five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Phillies
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Angels vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Tuesday, August 29, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSW, NBCSP |
Starting pitchers
Tyler Anderson (5-5, 5.35 ERA): Turbulence is the best word to describe Anderson’s season. When the left-hander is on, he can deliver a strong outing that spans over six innings. In fact, Anderson has allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of his last five starts. However, those other two games saw him surrender five or more earned runs, which is a solid encompassment of his volatility this year.
Michael Lorenzen (7-8, 3.69 ERA): This volatility also reigns true for Lorenzen, which creates an interesting dynamic for this game. The right-hander threw a no-hitter in his second start with Philadelphia since the trade deadline. In the two starts since then? He has given up four or more earned runs in each outing.
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