Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want, if you're betting pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Tuesday, September 2.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: September 2
Burnes u6.5 strikeouts (-120)
E.Rodriguez u17.5 outs (-129)
Aguiar u3.5 strikeouts + u1.5 walks allowed (+180)
Littell u4.5 hits allowed (-135)
Severino u17.5 outs (+135)
Today’s best SP angles
Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
The angle: Corbin Burnes is playing poorly and frustrated.
Baltimore Orioles starter Corbin Burnes has a 5.90 ERA over seven starts since the All-Star break — giving up 33 runs across 39+ innings. He is striking out less than a batter per inning and has a strikeout prop of 6.5 today vs. the Chicago White Sox, who have an average K% over the last 30 days.
Since his blowup with home plate umpire John Tumpane vs. the Mets, Burnes has made two starts, failing to get 18 outs in both and allowing 12 runs. Burnes' previous start before that heated game was one of his worst of the season, allowing 10 hits and eight runs over 12 outs vs. the Red Sox at home.
Shopping around is key here as DraftKings has Burnes' Under 6.5 strikeouts at -120 while he is as short as -140 at bet365. I'd buy this to -130 with THE BAT projecting 5.8 Ks.
The move: Corbin Burnes Under 6.5 strikeouts (-120 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
The angle: Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched on five and six days of rest since his return to the rotation but will be on four days of rest today vs. the Dodgers.
Eduardo Rodriguez had his last start pushed back a day as he threw 100 pitches in his third start of the year. He needed six days to recover between starts and still gave up five runs on 89 pitches while recording just 16 outs. The gas ran low the longer he pitched as he allowed all those runs after the fourth inning.
That has me very excited about his Under 17.5 outs today in a very tough matchup. This will be his first game on regular rest and I don't think his stamina is ready to go deep. He could see 85 pitches. We saw yesterday that the Arizona Diamondbacks aren't fooling around as Brandon Pfaadt was pulled after 17 outs recorded last night with a big lead. Arizona is five games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West and three games up on the Wild Card.
The move: Eduardo Rodriguez Under 17.5 outs (-129 at BetRivers)
Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds
The angle: Julian Aguiar is pitching on just three days of rest.
Julian Aguiar just pitched on Thursday where he threw 78 pitches, struck out one batter, and allowed six runs on 10 hits. Those aren't great numbers and not getting rest isn't going to help the rookie right-hander.
Aguiar will most certainly be on a pitch count today and THE BAT is projecting just 62 pitches. He has no outs market and might just go four innings despite how he's pitching. His Under 4.5 hits allowed at -105 shows a little value but his Under 1.5 walks allowed at -140 is a solid +EV with a 1.03 BBA projection.
If that is too much juice, add his Under 3.5 Ks. His strikeout market could flip from 3.5 to 2.5 and with 2.26 punchouts projected, that plus-money Under 2.5 Ks might be a good look, too, so let's play that SGP at +180.
The move: Julian Aguiar Under 3.5 strikeouts + Under 1.5 walks allowed (+180 at bet365)
Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays
The angle: Zack Littell is returning from the IL after shoulder soreness.
Zack Littell last pitched on August 14 and threw 68 pitches before exiting with shoulder soreness. He didn't make any rehab starts but did throw some simulated games in the interim. That has Derek Carty projecting 69 pitches in his return today, which is giving value to his Under markets.
Bettors are catching on but his Under 4.5 hits allowed at -135 (bet365) looks like a strong play at a 3.88 projection. There is some risk here, but Littell didn't have a long leash to begin with and had been pitching well before the injury.
If that juice becomes too much, his Under hits + Under walks is +165 at bet365.
The move: Zack Littell Under 4.5 hits allowed (-135 at bet365)
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets
The angle: Luis Severino is paying big bucks to not get 18 outs which he has done in six of his last seven starts.
This one is a head-scratcher. Luis Severino has gone Over this number just once over his last seven starts and has a 5.15 ERA over that stretch. His pitch count has been all over the place and is coming off a 100-pitch outing (4 2/3 innings).
This market opened at 18.5, which is why this price is available. The New York Mets are also one game back in the Wild Card so any stumble could be met with a pitching change. All of the Mets' middle relievers are available today, too. It's a giant price for a pitcher who has not been great since before the All-Star break.
The move: Luis Severino Under 17.5 outs (+135 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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