Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want, if you're betting pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Tuesday, August 27.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: August 27
Jones u5.5 strikeouts (-105)
Verlander o16.5 outs (-110)
Cease u17.5 outs (+110)
Heaney u17.5 outs (-135)
.E Rodriguez u1.5 walks (+140)
Flaherty u17.5 outs (+125)
Today’s best SP angles
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The angle: Jared Jones is making his first start in almost two months.
Pittsburgh Pirates righty Jared Jones last pitched on July 3 before a lat injury set him back. He has made some decent rehab starts in Triple-A but don't expect anything near a full leash today vs. the Cubs, who had the sticks going last night in an 18-8 win.
Jones is part of the Pirates' future and could be on a hard cap today as well, with temperatures over 90 degrees today in Pittsburgh and a little wind blowing out.
He only has a strikeout prop available, but it's sitting at 5.5 with the projections expecting 5.0 on 81 pitches. His closing total was 5.5 in five of his last 10 starts before getting injured, so I like the Under today at -105 with a buypoint at -120.
The move: Jared Jones Under 5.5 strikeouts (-105 at bet365)
Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The angle: Justin Verlander is making his second start after a long IL stint but should be stretched out.
Justin Verlander made his first start since June 3 last week and after a couple of shaky frames, locked in and sat down the final 10 batters he saw. He struck out six over 15 outs and 76 pitches. He will get a 90+ pitch count today vs. a team he has had success against — the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Houston Astros are in a decent playoff race and its high-leverage bullpen arms are possibly unavailable today; that means a longer leash and more outs for Verlander, whose out market is moving north quickly.
Pinnacle has his Over 16.5 outs at -141 while there are still plenty of -110s out there. I'll hop on that Over 16.5 up to -125 and expect this market to close at 17.5.
The move: Justin Verlander Over 16.5 outs (-110 at BetMGM)
San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals
The angle: Dylan Cease is going to sweat in the 95+ degree heat
It could feel like 100 degrees today at Busch Stadium, which projects as the hottest game of the day.
That could make it uncomfortable for Dylan Cease, who has enjoyed pitching in a great climate with the San Diego Padres but doesn't enter today in the best form, allowing 11 runs over his last three starts vs. bad offenses (COL, MIA, and NYM). He also threw 106 pitches in his last start; the most since his no-hitter six outings ago.
The Cards put up 11 hits yesterday in 90-degree heat and getting 18 outs might be a lot of work for the righty, who has been less effective on the road this year.
I wouldn't buy this at anything below even money but the market is dropping. His Under 6.5 Ks is too juiced at -165. He projects for 16.5 outs and 5.48 Ks. If his K total flips to 5.5, the Under might be a great look at plus money.
The move: Dylan Cease Under 17.5 outs (+110 at bet365)
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox
The angle: Andrew Heaney's leash is short and the weather will not help him.
Andrew Heaney has not registered 18 outs in three straight starts and has accomplished the feat just once over his last nine games. The Texas Rangers lefty has also struggled the third time through the order, which is why the Rangers have kept him to around 80-90 pitches per start.
A start vs. the White Sox might have some hesitant to buy the Under 17.5 with some juice, but getting 18 outs is not something he has done of late and the weather might not help either — there is a chance of some rain around 8-9 pm and it's going to be 90+ degrees on the Southside.
He projects for 14.9 outs so even if the 17.5 moves, the 16.5 at -115 or better is a buy for me.
The move: Andrew Heaney Under 17.5 outs (-135 at BetMGM)
New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks
The angle: Eduardo Rodriguez pushed his pitch count in his last start and might not see anywhere near 100 pitches.
Eduardo Rodriguez made his third start of the year last week and threw 100 pitches, which was 17 more than his previous start and 35 more than his debut. He has pitched well but with a lot riding on this game for both sides, his leash could be shorter today.
I'm not running out to get his Under 17.5 outs at -130, although I do like it, but I think his Under 1.5 walks allowed at +140 is the better low-volume play. He has just four walks over his first 16 innings this year and has cashed the Under in two straight outings.
Sometimes it's tough to find the right play on an expected lower-volume game, but the +140 odds are the easy path here, especially indoors. I'd buy this to +115. This projects as a coin flip.
The move: Eduardo Rodriguez Under 1.5 walks allowed (+140 at bet365)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The angle: Jack Flaherty is struggling to get 18 outs and has a fresh bullpen after a day off yesterday.
Jack Flaherty has a 4.41 ERA over his last three starts and has failed to reach 18 outs in any of them. He does not have a long leash, in terms of finishing innings, and his high strikeout rate is driving up his pitch count. He also has a tough matchup vs. the Orioles in a ballpark with near-10-mph winds blowing out.
The right-hander missed time this year and the Los Angeles Dodgers need him for a playoff run. He projects for 16.4 outs and bet365 is paying +125 for his Under 17.5 outs, with DraftKings the next best at +115 — both are buys.
The Dodgers were also off yesterday so the bullpen is reset and Dave Roberts loves to go to the pen early.
The move: Jack Flaherty Under 17.5 outs (+125 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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