On Friday night, the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners lock horns for the second of a four-game series in Seattle.
It's been a rough stretch for the Jays. After being nearly swept by the worst team in baseball, the Oakland Athletics, they opened this series with a pretty lifeless performance in an 8-3 defeat last night.
Toronto has lost seven of its last 10 but still remains firmly in the Wild Card race. The story couldn't be any more different for the Mariners. They are surging on the verge of the All-Star break and last night was just more of a repeat of their recent performances. Seattle has won eight of its last 10 and arrives today with a 42-42 record.
Who will take the second game of this series? Find out our free MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Mariners on Friday, July 8.
Blue Jays vs Mariners odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Blue Jays opened up as -125 favorites and we've seen some sharp action since then. In some spots, the Jays have fallen to as short as -105, with the Mariners also returning at -105. The total opened up at 8.0 and has remained there.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Blue Jays vs Mariners predictions
- Prediction: Blue Jays ML (-104)
- Prediction: Blue Jays TT over 4 (-120)
- Best bet: Springer to hit a home run (+300)
Picks made on 7/08/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Blue Jays win and George Springer to hit a home run BOOSTED to +600 at Caesars! Claim Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Blue Jays vs Mariners game info
• Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
• Date: Friday, July 8, 2022
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Apple TV+
Blue Jays vs Mariners betting preview
Starting pitchers
Ross Stripling (4-3, 3.32 ERA): Stripling has had a solid season for Toronto so far, and you could argue that he's been the second most consistent pitcher in the rotation. While he doesn't strike out many batters or have blazing velocity, he gets the job done. The right-hander's hard-hit rate and exit velocity are above league average, and he boasts one of the best walk-to-strike ratios in the bigs. In his last outing against the Tampa Bay Rays, he gave up three earned runs in just over four innings. He didn't have his best stuff but did a reasonably good job limiting the damage.
George Kirby (2-3, 3.75 ERA): Kirby is the inverse of Stripling for me. I've picked on him a ton as I've felt bookmakers and gamblers throughout the season had overvalued him. This has essentially been his rookie season, and he's had some success. May was kind to him when he pitched 26 innings and gave up just 10 earned runs. However, Kirby followed that up with some regression in June when teams had some film on him, and he posted a 4.67 ERA. The rookie's most significant issue is the hard-hit ball where he ranks in the bottom 20% of baseball, and also has four appearances of giving up multiple home runs. Kirby was impressive in his last outing against the Oakland Athletics, where he went seven innings, surrendering just one earned run.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in Toronto's last five Friday games. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Mariners
Blue Jays vs Mariners picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The odds on this one have been pretty interesting to track. Toronto became a pretty firm favorite and has nearly been bet down to the underdog. I'm going to fade that movement.
It may seem strange because the vibes surrounding the team lately aren't positive, but I'm not quite ready to give up on them yet. I have them 12th in my MLB Power Rankings, and could easily be in the Top 10 if they bolster their pitching.
George Kirby's most significant issue is hard-hit balls, and that's a big issue when you're facing this Blue Jays lineup. Despite their struggles, I still think they are one of the best offenses in baseball and are capable of exploding in any given game. Recent performances aside, Toronto is still sixth in barrel rate and leads the league in hard-hit rate.
When you look at where teams have attacked Kirby the most, it's been the breaking balls where he's been exposed the most. Toronto hits the breaking ball well as a team, as they have posted a .767 OPS against it.
On the other side of this matchup is the aforementioned Ross Stripling. I expect him to give up a few runs because the Mariners will show their patience at the plate. However, I don't expect them to do a ton of damage.
Stripling hasn't had a blow-up this season, but the teams that have hurt them the most are the ones that hit the ball hard. Unfortunately, the Mariners don't have much of that in their lineup. Looking at my projections, they see a significant edge here as I have Toronto winning this game 62% of the time.
That suggests an implied probability of about -160, which gives a considerable advantage over the Moneyline price of -106. In addition, the Jays have been solid after a loss this season, winning 63% of their games after they occur. Let's ride that trend to the cash window.
Prediction: Blue Jays moneyline (-104 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
I'm going to fade Kirby on the mound. This matchup is excellent for the Blue Jays' hitters, but they also have some situational aspects working in their favor. Toronto has now gone five straight games without scoring four or more runs, which is hard for me to believe.
It's tied for the longest stretch of consecutive games the Jays have gone without scoring four runs this season. The last time the team broke out of it, they scored eight runs against the St. Louis Cardinals in late May. It's essentially a play on the seasonal data, but this team has too many talented bats to be held down for too long.
To go even further, I'll be surprised if Toronto doesn't have multiple players leave the yard this evening, which would obviously help get this one Over the posted total. I have planted my flag with the Jays tonight and this feels like a quintessential buy low spot.
My projections have them scoring over four runs in 55% of simulations, but I'm slightly more bullish than that about this total cashing.
Prediction: Blue Jays team total Over 4 (-120 at DraftKings)
Best bet
It's Friday night so let's have some fun betting on a home run at great value. I feel highly comfortable saying that one of George Springer, Matt Chapman, or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hit a home run tonight. That's not exactly saying a ton, though, because if the Jays go long, you'd expect it to be one of their best power hitters.
Kirby is what you'd classify as a fly ball pitcher, and nearly 40% of balls put into play off his pitches are such. Of the Jays, George Springer has hit eight home runs off pitchers with the same tendencies as Kirby.
Kirby's "worst pitch," or the pitch that's produced the highest run value this season, has been the breaking ball. Of the Jays, Springer has hit the second-most home runs on offspeed pitches with seven, closely behind Guerrero at nine.
Back Springer to go deep in a game where the ball may leave the park a few times.
Pick: Springer to hit a home run (+300 at FanDuel)
