The Toronto Blue Jays made off like bandits at the trade deadline. However, there are still two months to play, and with today's originally scheduled starter Yusei Kikuchi on the Astros now, Paolo Espino draws the start vs. the Baltimore Orioles.
So, while Toronto may have paved the way toward a brighter future, our Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions focus more intently on the present, which is decidedly less rosy.
Read on for my best MLB picks on Wednesday, July 31.
Blue Jays vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Orioles team total Over 5.5 (+100 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Paolo Espino might not be long for this game — the Toronto Blue Jays righty figures to serve as a warm body — as he makes his first start since 2022, when he split time between the rotation and bullpen for the Washington Nationals. At 37, Espino's role will be to get through the Baltimore Orioles lineup once or twice before giving way to a depleted bullpen.
Anytime Espino has been called upon at the big-league level, he's struggled to keep the ball in the park. In just 8 2/3 innings over the last two seasons, he's allowed three homers. Okay, that's a small sample size. How about 2022, when he surrendered 24 long balls in 113 1/3 frames? Only then-teammate Josiah Gray had a worse HR/9 among hurlers who threw at least 110 innings that season.
This bodes poorly against an Orioles lineup featuring Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutchscman, Anthony Santander, and other big-fly threats.
I fully expect the Orioles to win by multiple runs, so the run line is theoretically in play, but the juice is worse, and the matchup is too favorable for Baltimore's bats. The O's piled on six runs yesterday, with five coming against a much more capable big-league starter in Chris Bassitt.
And while Toronto's bullpen limited the damage to one earned run in four innings of relief, this unit just shipped out Yimi Garcia, Trevor Richards, and Nate Pearson ahead of the trade deadline.
The Blue Jays bullpen owns a 5.00 ERA on the season, better than only Colorado's relief corps, and has allowed home runs at a more frequent pace than any team in the bigs. Their 65 homers allowed is six more than the next closest team — the Tampa Bay Rays — and Jays relievers have accounted for 33 fewer innings.
Any of the aforementioned Orioles bats could easily get in on the action, and I like Henderson to record an RBI at +110 a fair bit, but that's offering only a slightly better price than a much more appealing wager that factors in Baltimore's entire lineup. If Henderson doesn't come through, any number of other hitters easily can, and have all season.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+145 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
If it ain't broke...
No, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. didn't knock in a run in Tuesday's 6-2 loss, but he's been Toronto's most consistent offensive threat and books are still offering big value for him to tally an RBI on any given night. His 69 RBI is 23 more than Daulton Varsho, who is second on the team with 46.
Vlad is entrenched as the club's No. 3 hitter, typically slotting behind George Springer and Varsho. While Varsho's on-base ability leaves a lot to be desired, Springer has been excellent as the team's table-setter since mid-June. His OBP on the season is a measly .310, but he's at .348 since June 15. That improved number means Vlad doesn't have to hit a solo home run to cash this prop.
And though Orioles starter Grayson Rodriguez is very talented and has made strides this year, he can get knocked around from time to time, as his 3.82 ERA and 1.23 WHIP indicate. Guerrero took him deep in their last meeting on June 3, as well, and his season has only gotten better since.
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Blue Jays vs Orioles odds
Blue Jays vs Orioles live odds
Blue Jays vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 (+110) | Baltimore -1.5 (-130)
- Moneyline: Toronto +200 | Baltimore -245
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)
Blue Jays vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Orioles opened as massive -245 favorites and while some buyback on the Jays has shortened it, it hasn't been by much.
- The total remains at 9.0 or 9.5, with the higher number available at even money.
- The argument against the Over will be the Jays' offense countering Rodriguez, though Baltimore's bats could clear this number without much help.
Blue Jays vs Orioles trend
The Orioles have hit the game total Over in 35 of their last 61 games (+12.20 units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Blue Jays vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-31-2024 |
| First pitch: | 12:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, MASN |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Paolo Espino (0-0, 7.71 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Grayson Rodriguez (12-4, 3.82 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Orioles latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Orioles weather
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