The Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies both have their eyes set on a postseason berth as they commence a two-game series at Citizens Bank Park Tuesday night.
Toronto is finishing strong in the home stretch, having won each of its last six series. On the other hand, Philadelphia has been streaky and is on a four-game losing streak after having won five in a row prior.
Can the Phils recuperate and hand a loss to a tough American League foe? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Phillies on Tuesday, September 20.
Blue Jays vs Phillies best odds
Blue Jays vs Phillies picks and predictions
Bettors should back the Blue Jays at a fair price on the moneyline Tuesday night.
Toronto has been hot, taking 13 of its last 18 overall. It has also won 13 of its last 16 games following an off day, and is 20-7 in its last 27 road games against right-handed starters.
The Blue Jays’ lineup has been an elite unit this season, ranking seventh in the majors in runs per game at 4.67. That figure climbs when they take their show on the road, as only the Dodgers (5.33) have scored more runs per game as a visiting team than Toronto has (5.00) in 2022.
Leading the charge for the Jays’ offense in September is Bo Bichette, who’s slashing .440/.481/.867. Also, no MLB player has driven in more runs (23) than Bichette has this month. Another player swinging a hot bat of late is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has 16 hits in his last 43 at-bats (.372), including two home runs.
This unit will face a vulnerable starter in Kyle Gibson, who owns an 8.53 ERA and 1.97 WHIP through three starts in September (12 2-3 innings). He’s backed by an equally susceptible bullpen that’s pitched to a 5.08 ERA this month — the fourth-worst mark in baseball.
The Blue Jays have a solid pitching staff to go with their top-notch lineup. They’ll hand the ball off to Ross Stripling, who has produced a 2.45 ERA over his last six outings (36 2-3 innings).
The Phillies have uncharacteristically struggled to manufacture runs in September, plating a modest 3.86 per tilt. By contrast, their season average is 4.65. Not having Nick Castellanos (oblique) since Sept. 2 has hurt, but the return of Bryce Harper has been highly disappointing. The reigning NL MVP is batting a mere .157 this month with two dingers.
Toronto has its entire bullpen rested following a day off, and has three different relievers — namely Adam Cimber, Tim Mayza, and Anthony Bass — who boast a sub-2.00 ERA this month.
My best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-118 at BetRivers)
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Blue Jays vs Phillies betting preview
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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
Not only are the Blue Jays hot, but the Phillies are cold too. Philadelphia is 4-9 in its last 13 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15, and 2-5 in its last seven games after scoring two or fewer runs in its previous tilt.
A weekend sweep at the hands of the Atlanta Braves had to be disheartening, as not only did Philly have the chance to play spoiler against a division rival, but it also damaged its own playoff chances. Six-run bullpen collapses — like the one the Phils suffered on Friday night as they squandered a 2-1 lead — were seemingly a thing of the past, but they’ve become a more regular occurrence of late.
The Blue Jays are in a better playoff position at present — sitting atop the AL Wild Card race — with an outside shot at catching the fading New York Yankees for the AL East crown. But backing the “hungrier” team is typically a trap, and so far, bettors aren’t falling for it.
Toronto has moved from a consensus -111 favorite to as high as -130. Smart players should follow the money in this spot.
Over/Under analysis
Bettors have been busy throwing their weight behind this game, as they’ve knocked the total down from its opening line of 9.0 to 8.5 pretty much everywhere. Part of that could be due to a wind that’s expected to blow in from left-center at 8 mph at first pitch, but the line movement is likely thanks to some smart handicapping.
Stripling should keep a struggling Phillies lineup in check, and he has several reliable arms behind him. Closer Jordan Romano suffered a rare blown save on Sunday, but he should be able to recuperate if called upon.
Gibson is also capable of tossing a quality start at any given time, as he’s done so in 53.6% of his outings this year. He also has some solid career numbers against several Blue Jays batters, namely George Springer, Jackie Bradley Jr., Matt Chapman, and Teoscar Hernandez. The quartet is a combined 3-for-49 (.081) all-time against the Indiana native. Gibson has also held Whit Merrifield to 10 singles in 40 prior meetings.
The Phillies’ bullpen puts the total in doubt somewhat, but Under 4.5 for the first five innings is tempting.
Blue Jays vs Phillies game info
• Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Tuesday, September 20, 2022
• First pitch: 6:45 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, NBCS-Philadelphia
Starting pitchers
Ross Stripling (8-4, 2.94 ERA): After starting the season in a swing role, Ross Stripling is now firmly entrenched in the Blue Jays’ rotation, and is making the most of it. He’s riding a streak of six straight quality starts into this contest.
Kyle Gibson (10-6, 4.45 ERA): Kyle Gibson’s rollercoaster of a season has continued into September. Despite pitching six innings of one-run ball against the Miami Marlins when last seen on Wednesday, Gibson still owns an 8.53 ERA for the month.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 18-6-2 in the Blue Jays’ last 26 games after allowing five or more runs in their previous contest. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Phillies
