The Toronto Blue Jays' season has been nothing short of an old wooden roller coaster, full of jarring ups and downs. The Jays currently hold a slim 1.5-game lead over the Baltimore Orioles for the final Wild Card spot in the American League, so they can’t afford any more slip-ups, including in tonight’s series opener against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park.
Toronto hopes to avoid a letdown by handing the ball to fiery All-Star Alek Manoah. Can the big right-hander shut down the Buccos to help the Jays cash as big favorites? Or is the betting value with the home dogs?
Find out in my free best MLB picks and predictions for this interleague battle between the Blue Jays and Pirates on Friday, September 2.
Blue Jays vs Pirates best odds
Blue Jays vs Pirates picks and predictions
My best bet: Alek Manoah Over 6.5 strikeouts (+126 at FanDuel)
Alek Manoah is exactly the guy the Blue Jays want on the mound to get a series off to a good start, even if it's against the lowly Pirates. Manoah is the ultimate competitor and doesn’t care who the opponent is, you will always get max effort out of the big right-hander.
Manoah has been the Blue Jays' best and most reliable pitcher this season, pitching to a 2.60 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP while 19 of his 25 starts have been quality starts. And he should be able to put on another strong performance in this one.
The Pirates have had more than their fair share of problems when dealing with right-handers hurlers this season. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in batting average, OPS, and wRC+ when digging in righties this season. On top of that, they have the MLB’s fourth-highest strikeout rate when facing right-handers. And that’s what we’re focusing on tonight.
Manoah has seen an uptick in his strikeouts over his last three starts, racking up at least seven Ks in each and totaling 23 over 18 2-3 innings of work. Another reason to like Manoah to go Over his K-total in this one is that he consistently pitches deep into games, averaging 6.23 innings per start this season.
He should be able to work deep into this game as well against a Pirates team that, outside of Oneil Cruz, looks lost at the plate against right-handers. Mix in a nice +126 value and there is a lot to love about Manoah to go Over 6.5 strikeouts tonight.
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Blue Jays vs Pirates betting preview
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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
The Blue Jays are massive -250 favorites for this interleague showdown and it’s not shocking to see a line this high considering the matchup.
The Jays are a team pushing for a playoff spot with what can be one of the more lethal lineups in baseball and are sending their best starter to the bump. While the Pirates haven’t hit the 50-win mark yet, have scored the third-fewest runs in all of baseball, and are throwing a bullpen day.
And a bullpen day is not a good thing when your relievers' ERA and opponent batting average both rank 26th in the MLB.
Unfortunately, there is just no value on the Blue Jays with a line this high, considering how inconsistent the lineup has been since the start of August.
That said, they are on the road and guaranteed to get all nine at-bats, so if you're looking for something on the side for this one I would lean towards the Blue Jays run line: -1.5 at a much more reasonable number of -135.
Over/Under analysis
This total hit the market between 8 and 8.5, which seems pretty spot on for this interleague matchup.
The Blue Jays, despite their inconsistencies, rank seventh in the Big League in scoring at 4.70 runs per game. So, it is reasonable to expect them to put up five runs against what is a sub-par Pirates bullpen.
Meanwhile, the Pirates average a measly 3.66 runs per game and now face a stud in Manoah, and a rested Blue Jays bullpen that has been much improved since the trade deadline.
The gut reaction to this total is to take the Over, because, on paper, the Jays' at-times-very-good offense could explode in this matchup. But they haven’t been playing consistent enough lately, and with Manoah on the mound, runs could be hard to come by for the Buccos, so it’s a stay away for me.
Blue Jays vs Pirates game info
• Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
• Date: Friday, September 2, 2022
• First pitch: 6:35 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, AT&T SportsNet-Pittsburgh
Starting pitchers
Alek Manoah (12-8, 2.60 ERA): Manoah has bounced back from a bit of a late-summer lull. The big right-hander has put together back-to-back impressive starts, limiting the Yankees and Angels to a combined two earned runs on eight hits while striking out 16 batters over 13 innings.
Johan Oviedo (2-1, 3.20 ERA): The 24-year-old right-hander hasn’t made a big-league appearance since July 30th. Oviedo has served as a long reliever or opener, posting solid results over 14 appearances, but has pitched more than 2.2 innings just once, so it looks like a bullpen day for the Buccos.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Pirates are 12-40 in their last 52 games when facing a starter with a WHIP lower than 1.15. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Pirates
