The Toronto Blue Jays are coming off a big series win against the Baltimore Orioles, taking three of the four games and padding their lead over the O’s in the American League wild-card race. A big reason for that success has been because Bo Bichette is hotter than an active volcano right now.
Bichette and the Jays will try to stay hot when they head to Texas to take on the Rangers for the opener of a three-game set at Globe Life Field. With Bo finding his flow, it’s no surprise that our best bet for tonight involves the Blue Jays shortstop.
Find out what exactly it is in my free MLB picks and predictions for this AL battle between the Blue Jays and Rangers.
Blue Jays vs Rangers best odds
Blue Jays vs Rangers picks and predictions
Anyone who has watched Bo Bichette closely this season has seen that he has done a much better job of keeping his head still and down. Watching the ball come to the bat, taking what pitchers are giving him, and going to the opposite field when necessary. The results have been ridiculous.
The Blue Jays shortstop went a ridiculous 10 for 20 in the series with four home runs and nine RBI, and is hitting .516 with a 1.642 OPS through seven games in September. Bichette and the Jays will try to carry that momentum into their series opener against the Rangers.
The Rangers are running out the clock on another disappointing season. With just 59 wins, they sit in fourth place in the AL West as run prevention has been a problem for Texas once again this season. The Rangers have allowed the third most runs in the American League.
Tonight, they hand the ball to Dane Dunning for the opener. Dunning has been one of the Rangers' better starters this season, which is part of the problem. The right-hander has pitched to an expected ERA of 4.44 and is giving up a .251 expected batting average to opponents.
On top of that, Dunning has been in a slump over his last three starts, pitching to a 7.07 ERA and giving up a .361 batting average to opponents.
While it’s a small sample size, Bo is 3-5 in his career with two dingers in his career vs. Dunning. We’re betting Bichette stays in the flow tonight by taking the Over on his total bases — something he has cashed five times in seven games this month.
My best bet: Bo Bichette Over 1.5 total bases (-105)
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Blue Jays vs Rangers betting preview
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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
The Blue Jays hit the board for this American League matchup in the -150 to -155 range and that’s where the line sits as of late Friday morning. And frankly, that’s a pretty fair price on the Jays considering the starting pitching matchup.
It may shock you to learn that starter Ross Stripling has arguably been the Jays’ most reliable starter this season. The right-hander hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start or relief appearance since May 7.
He’s been outstanding over his last four starts, allowing seven earned runs on 16 hits over 24 1-3 innings of work, recording a quality start in each.
Tonight, Stripling stares across at a Texas lineup that has some big names but isn’t deep and is struggling against right-handed hurlers. The Rangers rank 19th in batting average, 26th in OPS, and 22nd wRC+ when facing righties this season.
With the edge in starters and lineup, combined with the fact that the Jays are guaranteed to get all nine innings to hit, the real value might be on the Jays -1.5 at +110.
Over/Under analysis
When it comes to the total, the number hit the board at an even 8 and hasn’t seen much action to this point. Even though I don’t have a strong feeling on the total, I would lean towards the Over before it gets to 8.5.
For starters, it’s not just Bo Bichette. Nearly the entire Jays lineup (outside of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has apparently forgotten how to hit fly balls) is heating up at the right time. The Jays rank third in batting average and fifth in OPS since the start of September.
On top of that, they are one of the best teams in baseball at handling right-handed pitchers ranking second in average and third in OPS.
Even though Stripling has been pitching very well, he doesn’t have overpowering stuff and is capable of giving up a few runs here or there. The Rangers still have some dangerous hitters in their lineup, like former Jay Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, and rank a respectable 14th in scoring plating 4.51 runs per game.
Blue Jays vs Rangers game info
• Location: Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
• Date: Friday, September 9, 2022
• First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
• TV: MLB Network
Starting pitchers
Ross Stripling (7-4, 3.03 ERA): Stripling has been impressive since becoming a permanent member of the Jays’ rotation back in June. Over 14 starts he owns a 2.52 ERA, and a 2.92 FIP and is limiting opponents to a .214 batting average.
Dane Dunning (3-8, 4.37 ERA): Dunning has been getting hit hard and often since pretty much the start of August. Over his last five starts, his ERA is 5.92 while surrendering a .313 batting average and a .920 OPS to opposing hitters.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing record. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Rangers
