Blue Jays vs Rays Picks and Predictions: AL East Foes Headed in Different Directions Meet

The Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays will play the second game of a two-game series Wednesday afternoon.

Toronto got the first game, 3-1, on the back of an impressive pitching performance by Kevin Gausman. The win moved the Jays to a comfortable position in the Wild Card race and gave them wins in eight of their last 10. 

As for Tampa, it continues to fade, as the Rays are on a dreadful spell of games with wins in just two of their last 10. 

Who will prevail in the second game of this series? Find out with our MLB picks and predictions for Wednesday, August 3, 2022.

Blue Jays vs Rays odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Today's odds opened up with the Blue Jays as the slightest of favorites at around -106. Since then, they've taken a bit more money and moved to around -110. The Rays are returning at about +100.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Blue Jays vs Rays predictions

• Prediction: Blue Jays ML (-110)
• Prediction: Over 8 (-105)
• Best bet: Blue Jays ML (-110)

Picks made on 8/3/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Blue Jays vs Rays game info

• Location: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
• Date: Wednesday, August 3, 2022
• First pitch: 12:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, Bally Sports

Blue Jays vs Rays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Yusei Kikuchi (4-5, 4.89 ERA): Kikuchi has been a famous fade for many this season, and it's easy to see why. He started the season failing to make it to at least five innings in three of his first four starts. 

Kikuchi is at the very bottom of the league in exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. He has improved slightly over the last month, surrendering just one earned run in two of the previous three starts, both of which were just five innings. Kikuchi is a fastball-heavy thrower who also mixes in his slider a reasonable amount. 

Jalen Beeks (1-1, 2.36 ERA): Beeks throws two pitches almost exclusively, with the fastball being his preferred over the changeup. July was a sensational month for Beeks, where he posted an ERA of just over 1.0. He profiles as a bullpen game pitcher and has yet to go over two innings once this season. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Rays

Blue Jays vs Rays picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

On the surface, this looks like another fade spot for Kikuchi. He's had a dreadful season and only started to look serviceable in his last start against the Tigers. However, the odds flipping back and forth perfectly illustrate today's matchup dilemma, and it has us siding with the Blue Jays.

Starting a heavy fastball pitcher without elite velocity is somewhat problematic against this Toronto lineup. Even if Beeks is only going one or two innings, he will see some of the best hitters in the lineup. 

Currently, this Toronto lineup will have seven batters that are batting over .300 against the four-seam fastball. Batting average isn't everything, but it's tough to ignore when it's something as overwhelming as that. In a vacuum, Beeks will continue to throw the fastball, and Toronto will have tons of success against it, or he'll go to a different pitch. 

When Beeks goes to a different pitch, which will be the changeup, the walks become a problem against a team that doesn't chase much.

Backing Kikuchi on the mound doesn't instill the most confidence. He's been mostly an auto-fade for me this season, but maybe, just maybe, he's turning the corner. In two of his last three starts, he's surrendered just one earned run, which is easily the best stretch for him. 

Of course, one of those came against the same Tampa Bay team, which makes sense. Kikuchi's biggest issue this season has been his secondary pitches — namely his slider — and the Rays are pretty bad at hitting sliders (24th in MLB)

Our projections make this exactly a 50/50 matchup, but our handicap says that Toronto has an edge. We're grabbing the -110 price now, but I think you may even get a better number if you wait right up to the first pitch.

Prediction: Blue Jays moneyline (-110 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

I always find more difficulty projecting the total for a game when one side will feature a bullpen day, but I can't play an Under with Kikuchi on the mound — even if I have some faith in him today.

I've written about why I like Toronto to get after the Rays early today, and that's a vital part of this handicap, but the trends we have pointing to the Over are as valuable as anything too:

• The Over is 10-2 in Blue Jays' last 12 after allowing two runs or less in their previous game, which points to them rarely having sustained pitching success.
• The Over is 9-2 in Blue Jays' last 11 when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game, which says that the same opponent having issues scoring is even rarer.
• The Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

We don't have much to work on from the Jays' perspective here, as they won't see a ton of their opening pitcher, but what they see of him will include a good amount of fastballs — and they are among the best in baseball against fastballs. 

So, we're backing the Jays to get off to a hot start and for Kikuchi to be improved but not spotless against this Rays lineup, itching to put some runs on the board.

Prediction: Over 8 (-105 at DraftKings)

Best bet

We're doubling down on the Jays as our best bet. 

There are a host of options to pick from in the player prop market as another nice bet. As we've said, Toronto will see a good amount of fastballs today, and the Jays are very good at hitting them. The Teoscar Hernandez player prop market sticks out the most, but with so many good options, it's tough to narrow it down. 

Getting the Jays here at this price feels like a nice edge, even if our projections don't exactly agree. These two teams are trending in opposite directions, and one has an excellent advantage over the other today. Back Toronto.

Pick: Blue Jays moneyline (-110 at FanDuel)

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