The Toronto Blue Jays hit an early-season rough patch. They have lost four in a row and are just 3-7 in the month of May and now they must deal with their baseball kryptonite, playing at Tropicana Field when they begin a three-game set with the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Jays are hoping that doesn’t affect their superman starter in Kevin Gausman, who has looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball so far this season. Can he carry the Jays to a much-needed win, or do the Rays have value as a home underdog?
Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Rays on Friday, May 13.
Blue Jays vs Rays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
With Gausman on the bump, the Blue Jays opened this AL East matchup as -120 road favorites and have seen the early money, moving the line to -130. The total for this matchup hit the board at a low 6.5, and that number is juiced to the Over as of Friday afternoon.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Blue Jays vs Rays predictions
Picks made on 5/13/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can bet $20 and get $200 in free bets with Caesars! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Blue Jays vs Rays game info
• Location: Tropicana Field, St. Petersberg, FL
• Date: Friday, May 13, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, BSN
Blue Jays vs Rays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Kevin Gausman (3-1, 2.13 ERA): Gausman finally gave up a walk! Now, his strikeout to walk ratio is a paltry 46:1. The right-hander has also allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last five starts.
Drew Rasmussen (3-1, 2.89 ERA): Rasmussen, one of the Rays’ few dedicated starters, is absolutely dealing right now. The right-hander has allowed just two earned runs on eight hits in 16 innings pitched over his last three starts.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Blue Jays: Danny Jansen C (Out).
Rays: Manuel Margot OF (Questionable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in the Blue Jays' last six games when facing a right-handed starter, and 7-3-2 in the Rays' last 12 overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Rays
Blue Jays vs Rays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Jays are hoping handing the ball to Kevin Gausman will put an end to their four-game slide, and why wouldn’t they think that? Gausman has looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball through the season’s first 30 games or so.
Despite finally giving up a walk, Jays fans will have to settle for Gausman pitching to an expected ERA of just 2.72 while striking out 10.9 batters per nine innings.
He’ll be in tough against a Rays team that has won 10 of its last 15 ball games to climb to 19-13 and jump ahead of the Jays for the second spot in the AL East standings. As per usual with the Rays over the last several seasons, they aren’t flashy but do all the little things well.
Tonight, they’ll counter Gausman with Drew Rasmussen, who appears to be yet another Rays’ reclamation pitching project. After a so-so start to the season, he is on fire now, pitching to a 1.13 ERA over his last three starts, and owns a 3.56 xERA for the season.
And while he’s been solid, normally this isn’t a matchup that should have Jays’ backers fearful. With the way Toronto has continued to have trouble producing runs to this point, however, it gives us reason to pause. The Blue Jays still rank dead last in baseball when it comes to hitting with runners in scoring position at a miserable .181 batting average.
On top of that, the Rays have the more reliable bullpen and there is also the fact the Jays have won just 49 times in their last 133 games played at Tropicana Field. That’s a 36.8 winning percentage.
Take the value with the home dogs.
Prediction: Rays moneyline (+110 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
It’s not shocking to see a total of 6.5 in this matchup. In addition to the overall dip in scoring in the MLB this season, both starters are barely giving up any runs at this point. That said, this number seems a touch too low.
Yes, both Gausman and Rasmussen have been great, but they have been giving up a fair amount of hits. As a result, both teams have opponent expected batting averages above .250. The Jays and Rays rank 12th and 15th in batting average when facing right-handers and both teams rank in the top half of the league in home runs hit.
Throw in the fact the Rays’ bullpen ERA ranks 16th in the MLB and the Jays rank 25th, and this game feels like a good bet to sneak Over the number.
Prediction: Over 6.5 (-120 at bet365)
Best bet
Gausman is such a hard pitcher to barrel up because he is so good at locating his fastball, plus he mixes that with a splitter that is arguably one of the dirtiest pitches in baseball. Opponents have an xBA of just .128 when seeing it and it's also his main putaway pitch.
As a result, Gausman has struck out 46 batters in 38 innings pitched and he’ll have a chance to keep racking up the Ks tonight at the Trop.
Gausman had recorded eight or more strikeouts in four straight games before notching just five last time out against the Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians are the toughest team in baseball for right-handers to strike out, however. The Rays, on the other hand, rank dead last in the majors when it comes to K rate when facing righties.
The strikeout number of 7.5 seems high but definitely worth the risk at the plus money we are getting.
Pick: Kevin Gausman Over 7.5 strikeouts (+120 at Caesars)
