Kevin Gausman and the Toronto Blue Jays were out-dueled by Pablo Lopez and the Minnesota Twins in the opener of their three-game last night.
Toronto will look to even the series when they hand the ball to Jose Berrios, while Minnesota counters with rookie Zebby Mathews. Find out why my Blue Jays vs. Twins predictions see value on the underdogs — at least early on — in my MLB picks for Saturday, August 31.
Blue Jays vs Twins prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays F5 moneyline (+110 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Jose Berrios returns to the infamous mound where he was pulled after just three innings during Game 2 of last season’s wild-card round, even though he was mowing down Minnesota Twins hitters.
That loss set the wheels in motion for the disappointing season Toronto Blue Jays fans are now suffering through, and Berrios will get a chance to show the Toronto front office just how wrong they were for making that call last October.
The Blue Jays’ right-hander enters this game dealing, pitching to a 1.88 ERA and limiting opponents to a .212 batting average over his last four starts, all of which have lasted at least seven innings. While the Twins have handled right-handers well this season, they have cooled off a bit down the stretch.
Minnesota ranks 19th in batting average and 21st in OPS over its last 15 games, and current Twins batters have combined for a .201 expected batting average and .311 expected slugging over 103 plate appearances against the Toronto right-hander.
Although rookie Zebby Mathews has been effective on the mound for Minnesota, he shouldn't be favored by this much in this spot. The Blue Jays lineup, despite being shut down by Pablo Lopez last night, has been much better in the second half of the season.
Of course, the Jays bullpen has me fearful of a full-game moneyline bet, but I’ll happily back Berrios to hold onto a lead through five innings.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+162 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
We can give Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a break for going hitless against Lopez last night. That doesn’t take away from his incredible month of August, and it sure as hell won’t scare us away from backing Vladdy once again in Game 2 of this series.
Guerrero has been tearing the cover off the ball this month, hitting .364 with a 1.124 OPS, which includes 16 RBI over 26 games. That has upped his season average to .321 and his OPS to .949, to go along with 27 dingers and 88 RBI.
Vladdy is also the type of hitter who can give a young pitcher like Matthews fits. He is patient and generally won’t get beat on bad pitches, and I like the Jays superstar to take advantage of this matchup and drive in a run at Target Field tonight.
At this price, our Covers Prop Projections have Over 0.5 RBI as a five-star play.
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Blue Jays vs Twins odds
Blue Jays vs Twins live odds
Blue Jays vs Twins opening odds
- Moneyline: Toronto +135 (-110) | Minnesota -160 (-110)
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 -165 | Minnesota -1.5 +140
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Blue Jays vs Twins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this AL matchup at +135 but early bettors have seen some value in the road underdogs, with Toronto now in the +120 range.
- The total hit the board at 8.5 and that's where it remains as of Saturday afternoon.
- These teams continue to play tight, low-scoring games. With yesterday's 2-0 Twins win, they've combined for six runs or fewer in five of the last six meetings. I'd lean Under once again.
Blue Jays vs Twins trend
The Under is 8-4 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Twins.
Blue Jays vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-31-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally North |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Jose Berrios (13-9, 3.72 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Zebby Matthews (1-1, 3.00 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Twins latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Twins weather
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