The 2023 MLB postseason gets underway today, and of all the juicy matchups littered across the board, perhaps none are more intriguing than this Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins series. MLB odds have tabbed the Jays as slight favorites to advance, but it's hardly a sure thing.
Both teams are priced toward the bottom of the World Series Odds board but don't tell the fanbases who are desperate to celebrate anything worthwhile when it comes to these two teams.
For Jays fans, they hope this year is "the movie" Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been talking about, while the Twins will be looking to win their first playoff series since 2002.
Who will get off to a fast start and take Game 1? Find out in my free MLB picks and predictions for Jays vs. Twins on October 3. If you want full wild card coverage, check out our MLB playoff predictions!
Blue Jays vs Twins odds
Blue Jays vs Twins Game 1 odds
Blue Jays vs Twins series odds
Blue Jays
TwinsBlue Jays vs Twins predictions
When the Minnesota Twins take to the diamond at Target Field Tuesday afternoon, they will be looking to end a terrible postseason streak that's seen them lose 18, yes 18, straight postseason games. The last win the Twins had in the postseason was Game 1 of the 2004 ALDS vs. the New York Yankees before losing the next three and getting bounced. Since then, they've been swept in all five postseason series, despite having two MVPs on those teams in Justin Morneau (2006) and Joe Mauer (2009).
Does this trend matter? Yes and no. The team may be different year over year, but the mental hurdle that comes with not winning a playoff series, let alone a single game, is a massive one to overcome.
This year's edition of the Twins boasted superb pitching. They ranked first in K/9, T3 in runs allowed, T4 in opponents BA, T4 in WHIP, and sixth in team era.
They were led by Game 1 started Pablo Lopez who notched 234 Ks over 194 innings pitched, however, he does own an ERA over 3.5 which is the part of his game in which we look to fade today.
Coming into this game, Lopez has given up at least three runs in three straight games against weak-hitting opposition like Oakland, Los Angeles (Angels), and the Chicago White Sox. The only good offense that Lopez faced over the last five weeks was Texas and he was shelled for five runs on 10 hits.
This sets up nicely for the Toronto Blue Jays to take advantage of.
The Jays enter this game with an offense that's as hot as any right now. They've plated 23 runs over the final series vs. Tampa Bay and 29 if you include the last game of the Yankees series. The batting lineup finally seems balanced and they are getting contributions from one through nine.
Going up against Lopez is not going to be a walk in the park, but the Jays did tag him earlier in the season for four runs and two dingers.
In a game both teams will be desperate to win, I'm backing Toronto's offense to be the more potent of the two.
My best bet: Blue Jays team total Over 3.5 runs (-120 at Sports Interaction)
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Blue Jays vs Twins same-game parlay
Blue Jays TT Over 3.5
Lopez Under 6.5 Ks
Lopez Over 1.5 walks
Today's same game parlay is themed "Fade Pablo Lopez."
Lopez has only pitched into the seventh inning in just one of his last nine games and in the postseason, managers are quick to give the starting pitcher the hook should the situation call for it. While Lopez did lead the team in Ks this season, as mentioned above, he's faced some terrible batting lineups over the last five weeks. Toronto is one of the best teams in the Majors at avoiding strikeouts, punching out just eight times per game which is seventh best.
I'm willing to bank on the Jays staying disciplined at the plate and letting Lopez come to them.
As for the final leg of my SGP, Over 1.5 walks was nicely priced and Lopez has three multi-walk games over his last eight games. The moment may be too big for a pitcher who is making his postseason debut.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Blue Jays vs Twins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
If we are looking at this game from a win/loss point of view, I'd have to lean toward Toronto here on the moneyline. Not only does it have Kevin Gausman on the bump — who's been nothing short of stellar this season — but it hit Lopez well in the past and is putting together some great at-bats.
I understand the Jays backed into the postseason with two losses on the trot, but the last game vs. Tampa was essentially an exhibition with very little to play for. They opted for a makeshift pitching rotation in that game, and the Rays just capitalized on it.
The Twins enter with a 7-3 record over their last 10 games despite losing the finale on Sunday in Colorado. The offense has put up some crooked numbers of late, but the hex on them in the playoffs is too much for me to overlook. Toronto can be had anywhere from +100 to -115 depending on the book despite opening at -103.
The total opened at 7.5 and has held steady with the Under juiced upwards of -130 at some books. It's a low total, with good reason, but I'm a firm believer in what the Jays are doing at the plate and could see them helping the total get over this posted number.
Trend to know
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the team total Over in 21 of their last 30 away games (+11.40 Units / 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Twins
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Blue Jays vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Tuesday, October 3, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:38 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, ESPN |
Starting pitchers
Kevin Gausman (12-9, 3.16 ERA): Kevin Gausman enters this postseason game in great form having kept the Yankees off the board in back-to-back games. He's given up just five runs over his last four starts but has been tagged four seven runs on 11 hits in two starts vs. Minnesota this year.
Pablo Lopez (11-8, 3.67 ERA): Pablo Lopez has been hittable over his last four starts, giving up 11 runs on 18 hits and three home runs. He is making his postseason debut so some jitters are to be expected. He's faced the Jays once this season, getting tagged for four runs on and two long balls.
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