We have the fourth and final game of this AL East intradivisional series with the New York Yankees hosting the Toronto Blue Jays. New York looks to break out of its drastic slump, while Toronto looks to continue to climb the divisional ladder to take first place back from the Yanks.
Will Toronto take care of business once again, or can the Bronx Bombers turn things around as a short home favorite? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs Yankees on Sunday, August 21.
Blue Jays vs Yankees odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The betting line opened as a pick ‘em on Saturday afternoon before the Yankees were quickly bet up to -125. The consensus opening total was unveiled at 7.5 and has since been bet up to 8.0.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Blue Jays vs Yankees predictions
- Prediction: Blue Jays ML (+100)
- Prediction: Under 8 (-120)
- Best bet: Manoah Under 2.5 earned runs (-110)
Picks made on 8/21/2022 at 1:37 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Blue Jays vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, New York City, NY
• Date: Sunday, August 21, 2022
• First pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, YES
Blue Jays vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Alek Manoah (12-6, 2.71 ERA): Serving as Toronto’s ace, right-hander Alex Manoah has been nothing short of incredible this season. Coming off a rare bad outing, Manoah will look to bounce back following Tuesday’s 4-2 loss to the Baltimore Orioles. In that game, Manoah allowed four earned runs on four hits through five and 2-3 innings pitched. The good news for Toronto is that Manoah usually bounces back well from poor starts. Following a game where he allowed four or more earned runs, Manoah is 2-1 this season and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in all three of those outings. Manoah does a great job mixing up his four-pitch arsenal, with each pitch holding hitters to a .250 or lower xBA this season.
Nestor Cortes (9-4, 2.74 ERA): New York will also be throwing out their “ace” in this game, left-hander Nestor Cortes (while Cole is pitcher #1 in the rotation, most would agree that Cortes has been better this season). Not only has Cortes been lights out this season, but he enters this game in great form. Over his last six starts, Cortes is 2-1 with a 2.72 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Boasting a six-pitch arsenal, he mostly relies on his best three pitches (4-seam, cutter, and slider). That being said, it does not really matter what he relies on because each pitch has held opponents to a .230 or lower xBA this year.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Alex Manoah has allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last 13 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Blue Jays vs Yankees picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
This game could be pivotal in the AL East race with the way things have been going for New York since the All-Star break. Entering this contest, the Yankees have lost 13 of their last 17 games.
I expect this trend to continue in this matchup with right-hander Alex Manoah slated to take the mound for the Blue Jays.
We should not expect regression from Manoah, who boasts a .295 xwOBA, .235 xBA, and .361 xSLG. As mentioned in the starting pitcher section, Manoah is primed for a bounce-back performance in this game.
Additionally, New York is a team that Manoah has dominated since entering the league in 2021. Over his 5 career starts against the Yankees, Manoah is 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.
Through 87 career plate appearances against the Blue Jays’ right-hander, this current New York roster possesses a mere .190 xBA, .273 xSLG, and .241 xwOBA. Following Manoah is one of the best bullpens in baseball.
Since July 1, Toronto’s relief pitching ranks third in the league in ERA, third in WHIP, third in BA, seventh in SLG, and third in wOBA. While the Blue Jays did burn through five relievers in yesterday’s game, one of their better arms (Jordan Romano) is still available for this contest.
He should be all the help they need as Manoah usually goes at least six innings.
Prediction: Blue Jays moneyline (+113 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
While the Blue Jays pitching staff should shut the Yankees down, their lineup may struggle to generate runs against left-hander Nestor Cortes. As mentioned in the starting pitcher section, Cortes has been particularly dialed in recently.
We should expect this trend to continue against Toronto, a team that Cortes has had success against in the past. Through three career starts against the Blue Jays, Cortes boasts a 2.51 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
Based on Cortes’ metrics this season, regression should not be a concern. This year, he possesses a .260 xwOBA, .205 xBA, and .329 xSLG.
Across 86 career plate appearances against New York’s left-hander, this current Blue Jays roster possesses a .251 xBA and .324 xwOBA. While Toronto’s offense is normally very strong, it does not not perform as well when facing left-handers.
Since July 1, the Blue Jays rank just 22nd in the league in BA, 22nd in SLG, 26th in OPS, 26th in wOBA, and 25th in hard-hit percentage when facing left-handed pitchers. Following Cortes is one of the league’s better bullpens.
The Yankees’ relief pitching ranks ninth in the league in ERA, seventh in BA, third in SLG, fifth in wOBA, and second in hard hit percentage since July 1. While New York went through three relievers yesterday, a few of their best arms will be available, including Wandy Peralta and Lucas Luetge.
The Under has been a strong bet for both teams recently, going 6-4 over Toronto’s last 10 games and 7-2-1 over New York’s last 10. With some key bats out for each team (George Springer and Giancarlo Stanton), these lineups should only further struggle against two outstanding pitchers.
Prediction: Under 8 (-115 at WynnBET)
Best bet
With all that being said, we can find better bets than the Blue Jays’ moneyline because Cortes has been outstanding, and I could see him shutting down Toronto. I am also not confident enough to take the Under due to the fact that both offenses possess some of the best hitters in the league.
The one play I am most confident in is for Alex Manoah to keep it rolling. Allowing two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last 13 starts, we should expect Manoah to go Under his run prop once again.
We are catching a rare opportunity of the Yankees' offense at its absolute lowest point, which we will take advantage of.
Alek Manoah Prop Pick: Under 2.5 earned runs (-110 at DraftKings)
