The St. Louis Cardinals look to win a three-game series against the visiting Atlanta Braves on Sunday Night Baseball.
Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright leads our favorite player prop picks for tonight's clash to come away with the win but it doesn't mean he'll come away unscathed. We're targeting a pair of slugging third basemen to go Over their total bases props at some point during the evening.
Don't forget to check out our game picks and predictions for Braves vs. Cardinals as well.
MLB props for Braves vs Cardinals
Picks made on 8/28/2022 at 2:20 p.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for Sunday Night Baseball, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can get a no-sweat first bet (up to $1,000) at FanDuel! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Today’s best Braves vs Cardinals prop bets
Waino grabs the win
The Cardinals are home moneyline favorites at -130 or shorter as of Sunday afternoon. This isn't entirely surprising considering the pitching matchup. The Braves are tossing out right-hander Jake Odorizzi to counter veteran Cardinals hurler Adam Wainwright. Odorizzi is probably the least intimidating member of Atlanta's rotation with his 5-5 record and 3.95 ERA on the season (1-2, 4.58 over four starts since joining the Braves).
Odorizzi doesn't miss bats, owning a whiff rate within the 20th percentile in MLB, according to Baseball Savant. As such, he's striking out just 18.3% of batters faced (down to 16.9% with Atlanta). It's the lowest strikeout rate of his career apart from his first two seasons where he pitched a total of 37 innings.
This should play right into St. Louis' hands as the Cardinals thrive in matchups like this. The Cardinals have pop in the lineup, but they're more dangerous when stringing hits together, consistently making contact. The Cardinals have the fifth-lowest strikeout rate (20.2%) and third-best wRC+ (116) in MLB.
Wainwright will benefit from this and so will bettors backing him to pick up the win for the home team. The seasoned vet is often in a position to pick up the decision because he's given one of the longest leashes in baseball. He's thrown at least 81 pitches in all 25 of his starts and has exceeded 100 in 15 of them.
Wainwright has also pitched extremely well in recent outings. If we exclude his poor start against the Yankees where he got lit up for six runs on eight hits over four innings, Wainwright has allowed two or fewer in his other five starts dating back to July 27, including two scoreless outings.
Finally, the adage of "there's no place like home" rings true for Wainwright, who owns a 2.11 ERA while limiting batters to a .218/.275/.314 slash line at Busch Stadium this season compared to a 4.31 ERA and slash line of .263/.320/.431 away from home.
With the Cardinals' offense giving Waino some early run support, the right-hander will do the rest even if he allows a run or two to cross the plate in the process.
Adam Wainwright Prop: To record the win (+125 at DraftKings)
Riley rules
The one knock against Wainwright is that he allows his fair share of hits. It doesn't always result in a ton of runs, but he's allowing consistent contact.
So, which Braves bat do we target? Perhaps conventional wisdom would suggest slugging first baseman Matt Olson because of the handedness advantage vs. the righty, especially since he's been red-hot, clearing his total bases prop of 1.5 in three straight games and five times in his last 10.
It's not a bad choice, but Wainwright has better numbers vs. lefties than righties, especially in the power department. Lefties own a .220 batting average and .332 slug compared to .254 average and .398 slug from fellow right-handers.
Instead, I'm backing Austin Riley. The third baseman — who could be an NL MVP finalist based on the totality of his season — is in the midst of a power outage with only two home runs since the beginning of August.
At least a bit of this can be chalked up to some bad luck. He's actually striking out less frequently this month than on the season and his .229 batting average can largely be attributed to a .274 BABIP.
Riley ranks in the 96th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, barrel rate, and expected slugging percentage this season. In other words, he's obliterating the baseball as well as pretty much anyone.
He's been Atlanta's best hitter all season and he's shown signs of snapping through his bad-luck funk in recent games. He's the Braves' best bet at doing damage against Wainwright tonight.
Austin Riley Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
New-dad strength
Nolan Arenado returned from the paternity list with a bang on Saturday, going 4-for-4 with a home run and a double.
The third baseman has officially put doubts about how he'd fare away from Coors Field behind him as he's posted the best wRC+ of his career at 162.
His 12.5% strikeout rate ranks 15th among qualified hitters, which bodes well against a hurler who doesn't miss bats with any consistency.
Arenado has an even 40 multi-hit games on the year and he ranks sixth in the majors with 62 extra-base hits (just behind teammate Paul Goldschmidt, who is also worthy of consideration tonight to go Over 1.5 total bases at -110).
Generally serving as the team's clean-up hitter, Arenado will get his hacks early and often and be in an excellent to clear his prop against Odorizzi.
Nolan Arenado Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (-105)
Did you know that if you played today’s Sunday Night Baseball props as a parlay, you could win $77.86 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
