Monday will bring us the debut of 23-year-old pitching prospect Yilber Diaz, who’s being called up to help shore up the Arizona Diamondbacks’ rotation after his best outing of the year down in Triple-A.
Here to greet him are the formidable Atlanta Braves, a team which has begun to heat up lately at the dish and will counter with a Cy Young hopeful in Chris Sale.
Can Diaz deliver the goods at this level, or will his first start feature some tough challenges? Let’s get into our in-depth Braves vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks for July 8.
Braves vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Over 8 (+100 at Caesars)
My analysis
We’ll need to spend some time discussing Arizona Diamondbacks starter Yilber Diaz, since little is known of him at this point as a 23-year-old who’s only made four starts in his career above the Double-A level.
His first taste of Triple-A was sort of a mixed bag, as he allowed 11 runs across his first three outings with seven walks and 15 strikeouts over 16 innings. Three of those runs were unearned, however, so combine those starts with six no-hit frames in his most recent appearance — an outing which featured just two walks and 13 punchouts — and his overall numbers don’t look all that bad.
Yes, the Pacific Coast League is famously tough on pitchers, and Diaz did respond in a huge way last week with his best outing as a pro. But when you take his entire career into account, there’s a huge issue with walks. It’s something we saw youngster Michael Mercado, a walk-ridden prospect, struggle with against the Atlanta Braves just one day ago. With the Braves walking at a considerably higher rate over the last two weeks, it’s certainly a cause for concern here.
Diaz has flashed good strikeout numbers, but we almost always see a firm drop in punchouts when players initially transition to the major leagues. He’s done little around the strikeouts to inspire confidence with a middling ground ball rate that dropped to just 34% in four Triple-A starts on top of all the walks.
Atlanta loves to put the ball in the air, and even in a large ballpark I don’t see this as a friendly matchup for Diaz. On the flip side, Arizona’s ability to limit strikeouts all season long, something that’s only grown more true of this team in the past two weeks, and its sixth-ranked wRC+ versus lefties should put this team in as good a spot as you can find against the indomitable Chris Sale.
Sale has pitched to strikeouts better than most arms in the league, but with his ground-ball approach against a team that can make a ton of contact and do damage on the ground with its relentless speed, I think the Diamondbacks have a chance to stay hot at the plate here. All of that leads me to believe this game will feature plenty of scoring.
Braves vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8
Chris Sale Under 6.5 strikeouts
Marcell Ozuna 2+ total bases
The Diamondbacks have been one of the best at limiting strikeouts this year at just 20.6%, and that rate has not only improved against left-handers (20.3%) but is down under 20% for the past two weeks. Yes, Arizona punched out eight times against Dylan Cease on Sunday, but that snapped a streak of 10 straight games under seven strikeouts for starters working against the Diamondbacks. In fact, 20 of the last 22 starters to toe the slab against Arizona have gone under seven strikeouts.
So, despite Sale’s incredible 32.7% strikeout rate this year, there’s a reason why he’s set at 6.5 punchouts after hitting the Over in all but three of his 16 starts. This is a team that’s going to put a lot of balls in play, and if it can pile up hits, it can even get the southpaw out of this game early.
After mixing Sale into this parlay, I’ll go with Marcell Ozuna to continue working his way back to top form after a short slump a couple of weeks ago. He’s recorded five hits in his last five games, three of which have gone for extra bases, and against “power” pitchers like Diaz who post a ton of strikeouts and walks, he’s sixth in baseball and first on the Braves with 53 total bases. This should be a great time to back "Big Bear."
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Diamondbacks odds
Braves vs Diamondbacks live odds
Braves vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (-125) | Arizona +1.5 (+105)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -220 | Arizona +180
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Braves vs Diamondbacks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Diamondbacks moneyline has been all over the place since opening just over +160. They were initially faded all the way up to +185 late on Sunday before the line started charging back down as low as +154. It’s now settled in close to the opening number again.
- The total opened up at 8.5 and, after hanging on there for a few hours on Sunday, eventually fell to 8. There’s been some slight movement towards the Under ever since.
- While the Braves have accounted for 82% of the bets at DraftKings, they’ve taken on a slimmer 78% of the money.
- A firm 69% of the tickets are on the Over here, but the Under has made up 68% of the handle.
Braves vs Diamondbacks trend
The Diamondbacks have hit the Over in 32 of their last 54 games (+8.85 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Diamondbacks
Braves vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Monday, 7-8-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports South, ARID |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Chris Sale (11-3, 2.71 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Yilber Diaz (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Braves vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Braves vs Diamondbacks weather
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