The Los Angeles Dodgers are arguably the hottest team to start the season, winners of six straight and tied for the best record in the league. The 2020 World Series champions will open an early week three-game series against last year's World Series champions, the Atlanta Braves.
Atlanta has failed to win a series so far this year and would love nothing more than to get that monkey off of its shoulder by beating Freddie Freeman and his new team. Can it stick it to Freeman or will Los Angeles continue rolling in April?
Continue reading for our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Braves vs. Dodgers on Monday, April 18.
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Braves vs Dodgers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Dodgers opened as favorites in the -185 range and can be found as high as -230 at some books. The total opened at 8.5 with heavy juice towards the Over and it has since moved down to 8.0 with more moderate juice leaning towards the Over
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Braves vs Dodgers predictions
Picks made on 4/18/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Braves vs Dodgers game info
• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Monday, April 18, 2022
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: MLB Network
Braves vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Huascar Ynoa (0-1, 15.00 ERA): Ynoa is a 23-year-old arm that is still finding his footing in the majors. He improved from his 5.82 ERA in 2020 to 4.05 last year, displaying more command and cutting his walk rate by almost half. He struggled in his first outing, in which he allowed five runs, seven hits, and two walks in just three innings against the Nationals.
Clayton Kershaw (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Kershaw needs no introduction as a former MVP and three-time Cy Young award winner. He is coming off of his "worst" campaign since his rookie year 15 years ago, pitching to a 3.55 ERA in 2021. He is also notably coming off a perfect seven-inning outing, which was the center of much discussion last week.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. OF (Out).
Dodgers: Tommy Kahlne RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the Brave's last five during game one of the series. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Dodgers.
Braves vs Dodgers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Braves stunned the world last year by winning the World Series without their star Ronald Acuna Jr.. Acuna remains out to begin the 2022 season and team results have been quite the opposite. They have failed to score more than three runs in seven of their 11 games thus far and have yet to win a series despite playing the rebuilding Reds and Nationals and the Tatis-less Padres.
Outside of newly acquired Matt Olson (.421 BA, 1.235 OPS) and the returning Marcell Ozuna (.318 BA, 4 HR), most of Atlanta's hitters are struggling to find their groove. Ozzie Albies has four home runs to his name but also is batting just .218.
Everyday players Dansby Swanson (.158 BA) and Eddie Rosario (.034 BA) have opened the season extremely cold. Alex Dickerson has been one of the league's worst designated hitters to date (.050 BA, .152 OBP), and Austin Riley, who broke out last year with a .303 BA and 107 RBIs, is arguably the only other hitter providing value currently (.388 OBP).
Those hitters will go against Clayton Kershaw, who has seen these hitters quite a bit (106 combined plate appearances). Kershaw has fared well against them, managing a strikeout rate of 29.4% and allowing a weighted on-base average (wOBA) of just .282.
His 2.13 FIP (fielding-independent pitching) is also a sterling mark, which is a metric that aims to measure what a pitcher's run allowance would look like with an average defense (essentially a standardized ERA).
Also taking the mound on Monday will be Huascar Ynoa, who took large strides in 2021 following a messy 2020. Last year he improved his strikeout rate by 10% (26.9% from 17.0%) and demonstrated better command by nearly cutting his walk rate by half (13.0% to 6.7%).
In fact, Ynoa ranked in the 72nd and 73rd percentile in each in 2021 after ranking 13th percentile in both in 2020. That type of jump is rare, and it projects well for the 23-year-old's future.
Ynoa's first appearance this year didn't go well as he allowed five runs in just 3 1-3 innings pitched, allowing five hits and walking two more in the process. However, he has fared decently against the Dodgers in his limited looks (25 plate appearances), allowing just a .100 BA and .224 weighted on-base average while striking out 20% of batters. If he can tap into that type of performance and his 2021 numbers, the long odds are more than worth a stab.
Prediction: Braves moneyline (+190 at Caesars)
Over/Under analysis
Given Kershaw's proficiency against this collection of batters and the expectation for Ynoa to reel it in for his second start, it only makes sense to look towards the Under for the total.
To help make that case, both teams have not been Over-friendly. The Braves have played to an even 5-5-1 (50%) record while the Dodgers have played 3-5-1 (37.5%) towards the Under thus far.
In 2021, Huascar Ynoa started in 17 total games and went over Friday's total of 8.0 just seven times (41.2%). In Kershaw's 22 starts last year, he went Over that number 10 times (45.5%). However, since 2017, from Opening Day through April, Kershaw has pitched in 20 games and those games have had more than eight runs just five times (25.0%).
Weather-wise, the game projects to have rather normal conditions. The wind is projected to blow out but at a measly 4.8 MPH and the humidity doesn't project to climb to appreciable percentages until the late innings of the game.
Prediction: Under 8 (-105 at DraftKings)
Best bet
Ignoring the matchup entirely and just looking at this game very plainly, heavy home favorites are always fundamentally hard bets to swallow. Either you eat the juice on a large moneyline or you take a run line and risk taking the side that could potentially go up to bat eight times.
When taking the context into mind, the Braves look like a perfectly fine stab in the dark as a large underdog. Using Ynoa's large jumps in 2021 to project further improvement in 2022 (despite his poor first outing) generates optimism.
And if it took literal perfect pitching for Clayton Kershaw to go just 80 pitches and seven innings, then it stands to reason that any appreciable amount of trouble the Braves can generate may lead to an early exit.
Then there is the added element of Freddie Freeman jumping ship, and the Braves may be playing with a bit more juice than usual. After all, it was just a little over 10 days ago that Ronald Acuna Jr. admitted there was a rift between him (as well as possibly others) and Freeman, saying "We were close in that we shared the same stadium but we had a lot of, how do you say... lots of clashes,".
Pick: Braves moneyline (+190 at Caesars)
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